Publications

BibTex format

@article{Iwamura:2020:10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4,
author = {Iwamura, T and Guzman-Holst, A and Murray, K},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4},
journal = {Nature Communications},
title = {Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}

Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk. We develop a mechanistic phenology model and apply it to Aedes aegypti, an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, zika and yellow fever). The model predicts the number of life-cycle completions (LCC) for a given location per unit time based on empirically derived biophysical responses to environmental conditions. Results suggest that the world became ~1.5% more suitable per decade for the development of Ae. aegypti during 1950–2000, while this trend is predicted to accelerate to 3.2–4.4% per decade by 2050. Invasion fronts in North America and China are projected to accelerate from ~2 to 6 km/yr by 2050. An increase in peak LCC combined with extended periods suitable for mosquito development is simulated to accelerate the vector’s global invasion potential.
AU  - Iwamura,T
AU  - Guzman-Holst,A
AU  - Murray,K
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 2041-1723
TI  - Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change
T2  - Nature Communications
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/78960
VL  - 11
ER  -

Download

ProfessorKrisMurray

Contact

Location

Summary

Citation

BibTex format

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)