Imperial College London
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DrLeonidChindelevitch

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Lecturer in Infectious Disease Epidemiology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

l.chindelevitch Website

 
 
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Location

 

Sir Michael Uren HubWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Brauner:2020:10.1101/2020.05.28.20116129,
author = {Brauner, JM and Mindermann, S and Sharma, M and Stephenson, AB and Gaveniak, T and Johnston, D and Leech, G and Salvatier, J and Altman, G and Norman, AJ and Monrad, JT and Besiroglu, T and Ge, H and Mikulik, V and Hartwick, MA and Teh, YW and Chindelevitch, L and Gal, Y and Kulveit, J},
doi = {10.1101/2020.05.28.20116129},
title = {The effectiveness of eight nonpharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in 41 countries},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.28.20116129},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Governments are attempting to control the COVID-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, it is still largely unknown how effective different NPIs are at reducing transmission. Data-driven studies can estimate the effectiveness of NPIs while minimizing assumptions, but existing analyses lack sufficient data and validation to robustly distinguish the effects of individual NPIs.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We collect chronological data on NPIs in 41 countries between January and May 2020, using independent double entry by researchers to ensure high data quality. We estimate NPI effectiveness with a Bayesian hierarchical model, by linking NPI implementation dates to national case and death counts. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most thoroughly validated data-driven study of NPI effectiveness to date.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>We model each NPI’s effect as a multiplicative (percentage) reduction in the reproduction number <jats:italic>R</jats:italic>. We estimate the mean reduction in R across the countries in our data for eight NPIs: mandating mask-wearing in (some) public spaces (2%; 95% CI: −14%–16%), limiting gatherings to 1000 people or less (2%; −20%–22%), to 100 people or less (21%; 1%–39%), to 10 people or less (36%; 16%–53%), closing some high-risk businesses (31%; 13%–46%), closing most nonessential businesses (40%; 22%–55%), closing schools and universities (39%; 21%–55%), and issuing stay-at-home orders (18%; 4%–31%). These results are supported by extensive empirical validation, including 15 sensitivity analyses.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title
AU  - Brauner,JM
AU  - Mindermann,S
AU  - Sharma,M
AU  - Stephenson,AB
AU  - Gaveniak,T
AU  - Johnston,D
AU  - Leech,G
AU  - Salvatier,J
AU  - Altman,G
AU  - Norman,AJ
AU  - Monrad,JT
AU  - Besiroglu,T
AU  - Ge,H
AU  - Mikulik,V
AU  - Hartwick,MA
AU  - Teh,YW
AU  - Chindelevitch,L
AU  - Gal,Y
AU  - Kulveit,J
DO  - 10.1101/2020.05.28.20116129
PY  - 2020///
TI  - The effectiveness of eight nonpharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in 41 countries
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.28.20116129
ER  -
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