Imperial College London
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Dr Laura Cooper

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Research Associate in Epidemiology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

l.cooper

 
 
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Location

 

Sir Michael Uren HubWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Gray:2023:infdis/jiad004,
author = {Gray, E and Cooper, L and Bandyopadhyay, A and Blake, I and Grassly, N},
doi = {infdis/jiad004},
journal = {Journal of Infectious Diseases},
pages = {80--88},
title = {The origins and risk factors for serotype-2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) emergences in Africa during 2016-2019},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiad004},
volume = {228},
year = {2023}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) can revert to regain wild-type neurovirulence and spread to cause emergences of vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2). After its global withdrawal from routine immunization in 2016, outbreak response use has created a cycle of VDPV2 emergences that threaten eradication. We implemented a hierarchical model based on VP1 region genetic divergence, time, and location to attribute emergences to campaigns and identify risk factors. We found that a 10 percentage point increase in population immunity in children younger than 5 years at the campaign time and location corresponds to a 18.0% decrease (95% credible interval [CrI], 6.3%–28%) in per-campaign relative risk, and that campaign size is associated with emergence risk (relative risk scaling with population size to a power of 0.80; 95% CrI, .50–1.10). Our results imply how Sabin OPV2 can be used alongside the genetically stable but supply-limited novel OPV2 (listed for emergency use in November 2020) to minimize emergence risk.
AU  - Gray,E
AU  - Cooper,L
AU  - Bandyopadhyay,A
AU  - Blake,I
AU  - Grassly,N
DO  - infdis/jiad004
EP  - 88
PY  - 2023///
SN  - 0022-1899
SP  - 80
TI  - The origins and risk factors for serotype-2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) emergences in Africa during 2016-2019
T2  - Journal of Infectious Diseases
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiad004
UR  - https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiad004/6984902
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/102655
VL  - 228
ER  -
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