DrLucyOkell

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Senior Lecturer & Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellow

Contact

Location

410School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

Summary

My research interests are the development of mathematical models of malaria and analysis of epidemiological data in collaboration with policy-makers to better understand malaria burden, the impact of public health interventions and to inform malaria control policy.

I currently hold a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship and my research focuses on assessing use of different types of antimalarial treatments in Africa and their impact on community-wide transmission, prophylaxis, and the international spread of drug resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria. I also have have a particular interest in the contribution of low density malaria infections to sustaining transmission.

The effect of a given malaria control intervention can often vary between different epidemiological settings, and I have applied models to specific endemic settings in Africa in collaboration with field-based staff and policy makers in order to understand where and under what conditions different strategies can be most appropriate.

Selected Publications

Journal Articles

Winskill P, Dhabangi A, Kwambai TK, et al.Winskill P, Dhabangi A, Kwambai TK, Mori AT, Mousa A, Okell LC close, 2023, Estimating the burden of severe malarial anaemia and access to hospital care in East Africa., Nat Commun, Vol:14

Okell LC, Kwambai TK, Dhabangi A, et al.Okell LC, Kwambai TK, Dhabangi A, Khairallah C, Nkosi-Gondwe T, Winskill P, Opoka R, Mousa A, Kühl M-J, Lucas TCD, Challenger JD, Idro R, Weiss DJ, Cairns M, Ter Kuile FO, Phiri K, Robberstad B, Mori AT close, 2023, Projected health impact of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention among children with severe malarial anaemia in Africa, Nature Communications, Vol:14, ISSN:2041-1723, Pages:1-10

Challenger J, Foo C, Wu Y, et al.Challenger J, Foo C, Wu Y, Yan A, Marjaneh MM, Liew F, Thwaites R, Okell L, Cunnington A close, 2022, Modelling upper respiratory viral load dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, BMC Medicine, Vol:20, ISSN:1741-7015

Okell L, Whittaker C, Ghani A, et al.Okell L, Whittaker C, Ghani A, Slater H, Nash R, Bousema T, Drakeley C close, 2021, Global patterns of submicroscopic Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection: insights from a systematic review and meta-analysis of population surveys, The Lancet Microbe, Vol:2, ISSN:2666-5247, Pages:e366-e374

Winskill P, Mousa A, Oresanya O, et al.Winskill P, Mousa A, Oresanya O, Counihan H, Okell L, Walker P close, 2021, Does integrated community case management (iCCM) target health inequities and treatment delays? Evidence from an analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys data from 21 countries in the period 2010 to 2018, Journal of Global Health, Vol:11, ISSN:2047-2978, Pages:1-10

Witmer K, Dahalan F, Delves M, et al.Witmer K, Dahalan F, Delves M, Yahiya S, Watson O, Straschil U, Chiwcharoen D, Sorboon B, Pukrittayakamee S, Pearson R, Howick V, Lawniczak M, White N, Dondorp A, Okell L, Chotivanich K, Ruecker A, Baum J close, 2021, Transmission of artemisinin-resistant malaria parasites to mosquitoes under antimalarial drug pressure, Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy, Vol:65, ISSN:0066-4804, Pages:1-17

Mousa A, Al-Taiar A, Anstey NM, et al.Mousa A, Al-Taiar A, Anstey NM, Badaut C, Barber BE, Bassat Q, Challenger J, Cunnington AJ, Datta D, Drakeley C, Ghani AC, Gordeuk VR, Grigg MJ, Hugo P, John CC, Mayor A, Migot-Nabias F, Opoka RO, Pasvol G, Rees C, Reyburn H, Riley EM, Shah BN, Sitoe A, Sutherland CJ, Thuma PE, Unger SA, Viwami F, Walther M, Whitty CJM, William T, Okell LC close, 2020, The impact of delayed treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria on progression to severe malaria: a systematic review and a pooled multicentre individual-patient meta-analysis, PLOS Medicine, Vol:17, ISSN:1549-1277, Pages:1-28

Watson O, Okell L, Hellewell J, et al.Watson O, Okell L, Hellewell J, Slater H, Unwin H, Omedo I, Bejon P, Snow R, Noor A, Rockett K, Hubbart C, Joaniter N, Greenhouse B, Chang H-H, Ghani A, Verity A close, 2020, Evaluating the performance of malaria genetics for inferring changes in transmission intensity using transmission modelling, Molecular Biology and Evolution, Vol:38, ISSN:0737-4038, Pages:274-289

Hogan A, Jewell B, Sherrard-Smith E, et al.Hogan A, Jewell B, Sherrard-Smith E, Watson O, Whittaker C, Hamlet A, Smith J, Winskill P, Verity R, Baguelin M, Lees J, Whittles L, Ainslie K, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Brazeau N, Cattarino L, Cooper L, Coupland H, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Dighe A, Djaafara A, Donnelly C, Eaton J, van Elsland S, Fitzjohn R, Fu H, Gaythorpe K, Green W, Haw D, Hayes S, Hinsley W, Imai N, Laydon D, Mangal T, Mellan T, Mishra S, Parag K, Thompson H, Unwin H, Vollmer M, Walters C, Wang H, Ferguson N, Okell L, Churcher T, Arinaminpathy N, Ghani A, Walker P, Hallett T close, 2020, Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, TB and malaria in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study, The Lancet Global Health, Vol:8, ISSN:2214-109X, Pages:e1132-e1141

Flaxman S, Mishra S, Gandy A, et al.Flaxman S, Mishra S, Gandy A, Unwin HJT, Mellan TA, Coupland H, Whittaker C, Zhu H, Berah T, Eaton JW, Monod M, Perez Guzman PN, Schmit N, Cilloni L, Ainslie K, Baguelin M, Boonyasiri A, Boyd O, Cattarino L, Cucunuba Perez Z, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Dighe A, Djaafara A, Dorigatti I, van Elsland S, Fitzjohn R, Gaythorpe K, Geidelberg L, Grassly N, Green W, Hallett T, Hamlet A, Hinsley W, Jeffrey B, Knock E, Laydon D, Nedjati Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Parag K, Siveroni I, Thompson H, Verity R, Volz E, Walters C, Wang H, Watson O, Winskill P, Xi X, Walker P, Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Riley SM, Vollmer MAC, Ferguson NM, Okell LC, Bhatt S close, 2020, Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe, Nature, Vol:584, ISSN:0028-0836, Pages:257-261

Sherrard-Smith E, Hogan AB, Hamlet A, et al.Sherrard-Smith E, Hogan AB, Hamlet A, Watson OJ, Whittaker C, Winskill P, Ali F, Mohammad AB, Uhomoibhi P, Maikore I, Ogbulafor N, Nikau J, Kont MD, Challenger JD, Verity R, Lambert B, Cairns M, Rao B, Baguelin M, Whittles LK, Lees JA, Bhatia S, Knock ES, Okell L, Slater HC, Ghani AC, Walker PGT, Okoko OO, Churcher TS close, 2020, The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa., Nature Medicine, Vol:26, ISSN:1078-8956, Pages:1411-1416

Okell LC, Verity R, Watson OJ, et al.Okell LC, Verity R, Watson OJ, Mishra S, Walker P, Whittaker C, Katzourakis A, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Ghani AC, Gandy A, Flaxman S, Ferguson NM, Bhatt S close, 2020, Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity?, The Lancet, Vol:395, ISSN:0140-6736, Pages:E110-E111

Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, et al.Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, Winskill P, Whittaker C, Imai N, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Thompson H, Walker PGT, Fu H, Dighe A, Griffin JT, Baguelin M, Bhatia S, Boonyasiri A, Cori A, Cucunubá Z, FitzJohn R, Gaythorpe K, Green W, Hamlet A, Hinsley W, Laydon D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Riley S, van Elsland S, Volz E, Wang H, Wang Y, Xi X, Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM close, 2020, Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis., Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol:20, ISSN:1473-3099, Pages:669-677

Okell L, Bretscher MT, Dahal P, et al.Okell L, Bretscher MT, Dahal P, Griffin J, stepniewska K, Bassat Q, Baudin E, D'Alessandro U, Djimde A, Dorsey G, Espie E, Fofana B, Gonzalez R, Juma E, Karema C, Lasry E, Lell B, Lima N, Menendez C, Mombo-Ngoma G, Moreira C, Nikiema F, Ouedraogo J, Staedke S, Tinto H, Valea I, Yeka A, Ghani A, Guerin P close, 2020, The duration of chemoprophylaxis against malaria after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine and the effects of pfmdr1 86Y and pfcrt 76T: a meta-analysis of individual patient data, BMC Medicine, Vol:18, ISSN:1741-7015, Pages:1-17

Challenger J, Goncalves BP, Bradley J, et al.Challenger J, Goncalves BP, Bradley J, Bruxvoort K, Tiono AB, Drakeley C, Bousema T, Ghani AC, Okell LC close, 2019, How delayed and non-adherent treatment contribute to onward transmission of malaria: a modelling study, Bmj Global Health, Vol:4, ISSN:2059-7908

van Eijk AM, Larsen DA, Kayentao K, et al.van Eijk AM, Larsen DA, Kayentao K, Koshy G, Slaughter DEC, Roper C, Okell LC, Desai M, Gutman J, Khairallah C, Rogerson SJ, Hopkins Sibley C, Meshnick SR, Taylor SM, Ter Kuile FO close, 2019, Effect of Plasmodium falciparum sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance on the effectiveness of intermittent preventive therapy for malaria in pregnancy in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis., Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol:19, ISSN:1473-3099, Pages:546-556

Slater H, Ross A, Felger I, et al.Slater H, Ross A, Felger I, Hofmann N, Robinson L, Cook J, Goncalves, Bjorkman, Ouedraogo, Morris, Msellem, Koepfli, Mueller, Tadesse, Gadisa, Das, Domingo, Kapulu, Midega J, Owusu-Agyei, Nabet, Piarroux, Doumbo, Doumbo, Koram, Lucchi, Udhayakumar, Mosha, Tiono, Chandramohan, Gosling, Mwingira, Sauerwein, Riley, White, Nosten, Imwong, Bousema, Drakeley, Okell L close, 2019, The temporal dynamics and infectiousness of subpatent Plasmodium falciparum infections in relation to parasite density, Nature Communications, Vol:10, ISSN:2041-1723

Okell L, Reiter LM, Ebbe LS, et al.Okell L, Reiter LM, Ebbe LS, Baraka V, Bisanzio D, Watson O, Bennett A, Verity R, Gething P, Roper C, Alifrangis M close, 2018, Emerging implications of policies on malaria treatment: genetic changes in the Pfmdr-1 gene affecting susceptibility to artemether-lumefantrine and artesunate-amodiaquine in Africa, Bmj Global Health, Vol:3, ISSN:2059-7908

Challenger J, Bruxvoort K, Ghani AC, et al.Challenger J, Bruxvoort K, Ghani AC, Okell LC close, 2017, Assessing the impact of imperfect adherence to artemether-lumefantrine on malaria treatment outcomes using within-host modelling, Nature Communications, Vol:8, ISSN:2041-1723

Bretscher MT, Griffin JT, Ghani AC, et al.Bretscher MT, Griffin JT, Ghani AC, Okell LC close, 2017, Modelling the benefits of long-acting or transmission-blocking drugs for reducing Plasmodium falciparum transmission by case management or by mass treatment, Malaria Journal, Vol:16, ISSN:1475-2875

Okell L, Griffin JT, Roper C, 2017, Mapping sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria in infected humans and in parasite populations in Africa, Scientific Reports, Vol:7, ISSN:2045-2322

Brady OJ, Slater HC, Pemberton-Ross P, et al.Brady OJ, Slater HC, Pemberton-Ross P, Wenger E, Maude RJ, Ghani AC, Penny MA, Gerardin J, White LJ, Chitnis N, Aguas R, Hay SI, Smith DL, Stuckey EM, Okiro EA, Smith TA, Okell LC close, 2017, Role of mass drug administration in elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria: a consensus modelling study, The Lancet Global Health, Vol:5, ISSN:2214-109X, Pages:E680-E687

Okell LC, Churcher TS, 2016, Generating the evidence base for malaria elimination: the situation in Haiti, Lancet Global Health, Vol:5, ISSN:2214-109X, Pages:e16-e17

Slater HC, Okell LC, Ghani AC, 2016, Mathematical Modelling to Guide Drug Development for Malaria Elimination, Trends in Parasitology, Vol:33, ISSN:1471-5007, Pages:175-184

Slater HC, Griffin JT, Ghani AC, et al.Slater HC, Griffin JT, Ghani AC, Okell LC close, 2016, Assessing the potential impact of artemisinin and partner drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa., Malaria Journal, Vol:15, ISSN:1475-2875

Wu L, van den Hoogen LL, Slater H, et al.Wu L, van den Hoogen LL, Slater H, Walker PGT, Ghani AC, Drakeley CJ, Okell LC close, 2015, Comparison of diagnostics for the detection of asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections to inform control and elimination strategies, Nature, Vol:528, ISSN:0028-0836, Pages:S86-S93

Bousema T, Okell L, Felger I, et al.Bousema T, Okell L, Felger I, Drakeley C close, 2014, Asymptomatic malaria infections: detectability, transmissibility and public health relevance, Nature Reviews Microbiology, Vol:12, ISSN:1740-1526, Pages:833-840

Okell LC, Cairns M, Griffin JT, et al.Okell LC, Cairns M, Griffin JT, Ferguson NM, Tarning J, Jagoe G, Hugo P, Baker M, D'Alessandro U, Bousema T, Ubben D, Ghani AC close, 2014, Contrasting benefits of different artemisinin combination therapies as first-line malaria treatments using model-based cost-effectiveness analysis, Nature Communications, Vol:5, ISSN:2041-1723

Okell LC, Bousema T, Griffin JT, et al.Okell LC, Bousema T, Griffin JT, Ouedraogo AL, Ghani AC, Drakeley CJ close, 2012, Factors determining the occurrence of submicroscopic malaria infections and their relevance for control, Nature Communications, Vol:3, ISSN:2041-1723

Okell LC, Griffin JT, Kleinschmidt I, et al.Okell LC, Griffin JT, Kleinschmidt I, Hollingsworth TD, Churcher TS, White MJ, Bousema T, Drakeley CJ, Ghani AC close, 2011, The Potential Contribution of Mass Treatment to the Control of <i>Plasmodium falciparum</i> Malaria, PLOS One, Vol:6, ISSN:1932-6203

Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Okell LC, et al.Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Okell LC, Churcher TS, White M, Hinsley W, Bousema T, Drakeley CJ, Ferguson NM, Basáñez MG, Ghani AC close, 2010, Reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa: a model-based evaluation of intervention strategies., Plos Med, Vol:7, ISSN:1549-1676, Pages:1-27

Bousema T, Okell L, Shekalaghe S, et al.Bousema T, Okell L, Shekalaghe S, Griffin JT, Omar S, Sawa P, Sutherland C, Sauerwein R, Ghani AC, Drakeley C close, 2010, Revisiting the circulation time of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes: molecular detection methods to estimate the duration of gametocyte carriage and the effect of gametocytocidal drugs, Malaria Journal, Vol:9, ISSN:1475-2875

Okell LC, Ghani AC, Lyons E, et al.Okell LC, Ghani AC, Lyons E, Drakeley CJ close, 2009, Submicroscopic infection in Plasmodium falciparum-endemic populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis, J Infect Dis, Vol:200, ISSN:1537-6613, Pages:1509-1517

Okell LC, Drakeley CJ, Bousema T, et al.Okell LC, Drakeley CJ, Bousema T, Whitty CJ, Ghani AC close, 2008, Modelling the impact of artemisinin combination therapy and long-acting treatments on malaria transmission intensity, Plos Med, Vol:5, ISSN:1549-1676, Pages:e226-e226

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