Imperial College London
Alternate

DrLucyOkell

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Senior Lecturer & Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

l.okell Website

 
 
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Location

 

410School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Bhatia:2021:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15805.3,
author = {Bhatia, S and Imai, N and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Baguelin, M and Boonyasiri, A and Cori, A and Cucunubá, Z and Dorigatti, I and FitzJohn, R and Fu, H and Gaythorpe, K and Ghani, A and Hamlet, A and Hinsley, W and Laydon, D and Nedjati-Gilani, G and Okell, L and Riley, S and Thompson, H and van, Elsland S and Volz, E and Wang, H and Wang, Y and Whittaker, C and Xi, X and Donnelly, CA and Ferguson, NM},
doi = {10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15805.3},
journal = {Wellcome Open Research},
pages = {143--143},
title = {Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15805.3},
volume = {5},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - <ns4:p><ns4:bold>Background:</ns4:bold> As of August 2021, every region of the world has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 196,000,000 cases worldwide.</ns4:p><ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Methods: </ns4:bold>We analysed COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the region- and country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different regions and countries.</ns4:p><ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Results: </ns4:bold>Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that up to 70% (95% CI: 54% - 80%) of imported cases could remain undetected relative to the sensitivity of surveillance in Singapore. The percentage of undetected imported cases rises to 75% (95% CI 66% - 82%) when comparing to the surveillance sensitivity in multiple countries.</ns4:p><ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Conclusions: </ns4:bold>Our analysis shows that a large number of COVID-19 cases remain undetected across the world.<ns4:bold> </ns4:bold>These undetected cases potentially resulted in multiple chains of human-to-human transmission outside mainland China.</ns4:p>
AU  - Bhatia,S
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Cori,A
AU  - Cucunubá,Z
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - FitzJohn,R
AU  - Fu,H
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Hamlet,A
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Nedjati-Gilani,G
AU  - Okell,L
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Thompson,H
AU  - van,Elsland S
AU  - Volz,E
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Wang,Y
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Donnelly,CA
AU  - Ferguson,NM
DO  - 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15805.3
EP  - 143
PY  - 2021///
SP  - 143
TI  - Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China
T2  - Wellcome Open Research
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15805.3
VL  - 5
ER  -
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