Imperial College London
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DrLorainneTudor Car

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Honorary Senior Research Fellow
 
 
 
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l.tudor.car

 
 
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Reynolds BuildingCharing Cross Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Paulson:2021:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01207-1,
author = {Paulson, KR and Kamath, AM and Alam, T and Bienhoff, K and Abady, GG and Abbas, J and Abbasi-Kangevari, M and Abbastabar, H and Abd-Allah, F and Abd-Elsalam, SM and Abdoli, A and Abedi, A and Abolhassani, H and Abreu, LG and Abu-Gharbieh, E and Abu-Rmeileh, NME and Abushouk, AI and Adamu, AL and Adebayo, OM and Adegbosin, AE and Adekanmbi, V and Adetokunboh, OO and Adeyinka, DA and Adsuar, JC and Afshari, K and Aghaali, M and Agudelo-Botero, M and Ahinkorah, BO and Ahmad, T and Ahmadi, K and Ahmed, MB and Aji, B and Akalu, Y and Akinyemi, OO and Aklilu, A and Al-Aly, Z and Alam, K and Alanezi, FM and Alanzi, TM and Alcalde-Rabanal, JE and Al-Eyadhy, A and Ali, T and Alicandro, G and Alif, SM and Alipour, V and Alizade, H and Aljunid, SM and Almasi-Hashiani, A and Almasri, NA and Al-Mekhlafi, HM and Alonso, J and Al-Raddadi, RM and Altirkawi, KA and Alumran, AK and Alvis-Guzman, N and Alvis-Zakzuk, NJ and Ameyaw, EK and Amini, S and Amini-Rarani, M and Amit, AML and Amugsi, DA and Ancuc},
doi = {10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01207-1},
journal = {The Lancet},
pages = {870--905},
title = {Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01207-1},
volume = {398},
year = {2021}
}
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TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundSustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.MethodsWe completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.FindingsGlobal U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3–74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2–41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8–29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3–19·8) in 2019.
AU  - Paulson,KR
AU  - Kamath,AM
AU  - Alam,T
AU  - Bienhoff,K
AU  - Abady,GG
AU  - Abbas,J
AU  - Abbasi-Kangevari,M
AU  - Abbastabar,H
AU  - Abd-Allah,F
AU  - Abd-Elsalam,SM
AU  - Abdoli,A
AU  - Abedi,A
AU  - Abolhassani,H
AU  - Abreu,LG
AU  - Abu-Gharbieh,E
AU  - Abu-Rmeileh,NME
AU  - Abushouk,AI
AU  - Adamu,AL
AU  - Adebayo,OM
AU  - Adegbosin,AE
AU  - Adekanmbi,V
AU  - Adetokunboh,OO
AU  - Adeyinka,DA
AU  - Adsuar,JC
AU  - Afshari,K
AU  - Aghaali,M
AU  - Agudelo-Botero,M
AU  - Ahinkorah,BO
AU  - Ahmad,T
AU  - Ahmadi,K
AU  - Ahmed,MB
AU  - Aji,B
AU  - Akalu,Y
AU  - Akinyemi,OO
AU  - Aklilu,A
AU  - Al-Aly,Z
AU  - Alam,K
AU  - Alanezi,FM
AU  - Alanzi,TM
AU  - Alcalde-Rabanal,JE
AU  - Al-Eyadhy,A
AU  - Ali,T
AU  - Alicandro,G
AU  - Alif,SM
AU  - Alipour,V
AU  - Alizade,H
AU  - Aljunid,SM
AU  - Almasi-Hashiani,A
AU  - Almasri,NA
AU  - Al-Mekhlafi,HM
AU  - Alonso,J
AU  - Al-Raddadi,RM
AU  - Altirkawi,KA
AU  - Alumran,AK
AU  - Alvis-Guzman,N
AU  - Alvis-Zakzuk,NJ
AU  - Ameyaw,EK
AU  - Amini,S
AU  - Amini-Rarani,M
AU  - Amit,AML
AU  - Amugsi,DA
AU  - Ancuceanu,R
AU  - Anderlini,D
AU  - Andrei,CL
AU  - Ansari,F
AU  - Ansari-Moghaddam,A
AU  - Antonio,CAT
AU  - Antriyandarti,E
AU  - Anvari,D
AU  - Anwer,R
AU  - Aqeel,M
AU  - Arabloo,J
AU  - Arab-Zozani,M
AU  - Aripov,T
AU  - Ärnlöv,J
AU  - Artanti,KD
AU  - Arzani,A
AU  - Asaad,M
AU  - Asadi-Aliabadi,M
AU  - Asadi-Pooya,AA
AU  - Asghari,Jafarabadi M
AU  - Athari,SS
AU  - Athari,SM
AU  - Atnafu,DD
AU  - Atreya,A
AU  - Atteraya,MS
AU  - Ausloos,M
AU  - Awan,AT
AU  - Ayala,Quintanilla BP
AU  - Ayano,G
AU  - Ayanore,MA
AU  - Aynalem,YA
AU  - Azari,S
AU  - Azarian,G
AU  - Azene,ZN
AU  - B,DB
AU  - Babaee,E
AU  - Badiye,AD
AU  - Baig,AA
AU  - Banach,M
AU  - Banik,PC
AU  - Barker-Collo,SL
AU  - Barqawi,HJ
AU  - Bassat,Q
AU  - Basu,S
AU  - Baune,BT
AU  - Bayati,M
AU  - Bedi,N
AU  - Beghi,E
AU  - Beghi,M
AU  - Bell,ML
AU  - Bendak,S
AU  - Bennett,DA
AU  - Bensenor,IM
AU  - Berhe,K
AU  - Berman,AE
AU  - Bezabih,YM
AU  - Bhagavathula,AS
AU  - Bhandari,D
AU  - Bhardwaj,N
AU  - Bhardwaj,P
AU  - Bhattacharyya,K
AU  - Bhattarai,S
AU  - Bhutta,ZA
AU  - Bikbov,B
AU  - Biondi,A
AU  - Birihane,BM
AU  - Biswas,RK
AU  - Bohlouli,S
AU  - Bragazzi,NL
AU  - Breusov,AV
AU  - Brunoni,AR
AU  - Burkart,K
AU  - Burugina,Nagaraja S
AU  - Busse,R
AU  - Butt,ZA
AU  - Caetano,dos Santos FL
AU  - Cahuana-Hurtado,L
AU  - Camargos,P
AU  - Cámera,LA
AU  - Cárdenas,R
AU  - Carreras,G
AU  - Carrero,JJ
AU  - Carvalho,F
AU  - Castaldelli-Maia,JM
AU  - Castañeda-Orjuela,CA
AU  - Castelpietra,G
AU  - Cerin,E
AU  - Chang,J-C
AU  - Chanie,WF
AU  - Charan,J
AU  - Chatterjee,S
AU  - Chattu,SK
AU  - Chattu,VK
AU  - Chaturvedi,S
AU  - Chen,S
AU  - Cho,DY
AU  - Choi,J-YJ
AU  - Chu,D-T
AU  - Ciobanu,LG
AU  - Cirillo,M
AU  - Conde,J
AU  - Costa,VM
AU  - Couto,RAS
AU  - Dachew,BA
AU  - Dahla
DO  - 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01207-1
EP  - 905
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 0140-6736
SP  - 870
TI  - Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
T2  - The Lancet
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01207-1
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673621012071?via%3Dihub
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/91163
VL  - 398
ER  -
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