Imperial College London
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DrLilithWhittles

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

l.whittles

 
 
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Location

 

School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@unpublished{Unwin:2020:10.1101/2020.07.13.20152355,
author = {Unwin, HJT and Mishra, S and Bradley, VC and Gandy, A and Mellan, TA and Coupland, H and Ish-Horowicz, J and Vollmer, MAC and Whittaker, C and Filippi, SL and Xi, X and Monod, M and Ratmann, O and Hutchinson, M and Valka, F and Zhu, H and Hawryluk, I and Milton, P and Ainslie, KEC and Baguelin, M and Boonyasiri, A and Brazeau, NF and Cattarino, L and Cucunuba, Z and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Dorigatti, I and Eales, OD and Eaton, JW and van, Elsland SL and FitzJohn, RG and Gaythorpe, KAM and Green, W and Hinsley, W and Jeffrey, B and Knock, E and Laydon, DJ and Lees, J and Nedjati-Gilani, G and Nouvellet, P and Okell, L and Parag, KV and Siveroni, I and Thompson, HA and Walker, P and Walters, CE and Watson, OJ and Whittles, LK and Ghani, AC and Ferguson, NM and Riley, S and Donnelly, CA and Bhatt, S and Flaxman, S},
doi = {10.1101/2020.07.13.20152355},
title = {State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.13.20152355},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - UNPB
AB  - <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>As of 1st June 2020, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. We jointly modelled the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available death data within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework. For each state, we estimate the number of individuals that have been infected, the number of individuals that are currently infectious and the time-varying reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected person). We used changes in mobility to capture the impact that non-pharmaceutical interventions and other behaviour changes have on the rate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Nationally, we estimated 3.7% [3.4%-4.0%] of the population had been infected by 1st June 2020, with wide variation between states, and approximately 0.01% of the population was infectious. We also demonstrated that good model forecasts of deaths for the next 3 weeks with low error and good coverage of our credible intervals.</jats:p>
AU  - Unwin,HJT
AU  - Mishra,S
AU  - Bradley,VC
AU  - Gandy,A
AU  - Mellan,TA
AU  - Coupland,H
AU  - Ish-Horowicz,J
AU  - Vollmer,MAC
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Filippi,SL
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Monod,M
AU  - Ratmann,O
AU  - Hutchinson,M
AU  - Valka,F
AU  - Zhu,H
AU  - Hawryluk,I
AU  - Milton,P
AU  - Ainslie,KEC
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Brazeau,NF
AU  - Cattarino,L
AU  - Cucunuba,Z
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - Eales,OD
AU  - Eaton,JW
AU  - van,Elsland SL
AU  - FitzJohn,RG
AU  - Gaythorpe,KAM
AU  - Green,W
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Jeffrey,B
AU  - Knock,E
AU  - Laydon,DJ
AU  - Lees,J
AU  - Nedjati-Gilani,G
AU  - Nouvellet,P
AU  - Okell,L
AU  - Parag,KV
AU  - Siveroni,I
AU  - Thompson,HA
AU  - Walker,P
AU  - Walters,CE
AU  - Watson,OJ
AU  - Whittles,LK
AU  - Ghani,AC
AU  - Ferguson,NM
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Donnelly,CA
AU  - Bhatt,S
AU  - Flaxman,S
DO  - 10.1101/2020.07.13.20152355
PY  - 2020///
TI  - State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.13.20152355
ER  -
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