Imperial College London
Alternate

ProfessorMaria-GloriaBasanez

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Neglected Tropical Diseases
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3295m.basanez Website

 
 
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Location

 

503School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Cromwell:2021:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824,
author = {Cromwell, EA and Osborne, JCP and Unnasch, TR and Basáñez, M-G and Gass, KM and Barbre, KA and Hill, E and Johnson, KB and Donkers, KM and Shirude, S and Schmidt, CA and Adekanmbi, V and Adetokunboh, OO and Afarideh, M and Ahmadpour, E and Ahmed, MB and Akalu, TY and Al-Aly, Z and Alanezi, FM and Alanzi, TM and Alipour, V and Andrei, CL and Ansari, F and Ansha, MG and Anvari, D and Appiah, SCY and Arabloo, J and Arnold, BF and Ausloos, M and Ayanore, MA and Baig, AA and Banach, M and Barac, A and Bärnighausen, TW and Bayati, M and Bhattacharyya, K and Bhutta, ZA and Bibi, S and Bijani, A and Bohlouli, S and Bohluli, M and Brady, OJ and Bragazzi, NL and Butt, ZA and Carvalho, F and Chatterjee, S and Chattu, VK and Chattu, SK and Cormier, NM and Dahlawi, SMA and Damiani, G and Daoud, F and Darwesh, AM and Daryani, A and Deribe, K and Dharmaratne, SD and Diaz, D and Do, HT and El, Sayed Zaki M and El, Tantawi M and Elemineh, DA and Faraj, A and Fasihi, Harandi M and Fatahi, Y and Feigin, },
doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824},
journal = {PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases},
pages = {1--23},
title = {Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824},
volume = {15},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initia
AU  - Cromwell,EA
AU  - Osborne,JCP
AU  - Unnasch,TR
AU  - Basáñez,M-G
AU  - Gass,KM
AU  - Barbre,KA
AU  - Hill,E
AU  - Johnson,KB
AU  - Donkers,KM
AU  - Shirude,S
AU  - Schmidt,CA
AU  - Adekanmbi,V
AU  - Adetokunboh,OO
AU  - Afarideh,M
AU  - Ahmadpour,E
AU  - Ahmed,MB
AU  - Akalu,TY
AU  - Al-Aly,Z
AU  - Alanezi,FM
AU  - Alanzi,TM
AU  - Alipour,V
AU  - Andrei,CL
AU  - Ansari,F
AU  - Ansha,MG
AU  - Anvari,D
AU  - Appiah,SCY
AU  - Arabloo,J
AU  - Arnold,BF
AU  - Ausloos,M
AU  - Ayanore,MA
AU  - Baig,AA
AU  - Banach,M
AU  - Barac,A
AU  - Bärnighausen,TW
AU  - Bayati,M
AU  - Bhattacharyya,K
AU  - Bhutta,ZA
AU  - Bibi,S
AU  - Bijani,A
AU  - Bohlouli,S
AU  - Bohluli,M
AU  - Brady,OJ
AU  - Bragazzi,NL
AU  - Butt,ZA
AU  - Carvalho,F
AU  - Chatterjee,S
AU  - Chattu,VK
AU  - Chattu,SK
AU  - Cormier,NM
AU  - Dahlawi,SMA
AU  - Damiani,G
AU  - Daoud,F
AU  - Darwesh,AM
AU  - Daryani,A
AU  - Deribe,K
AU  - Dharmaratne,SD
AU  - Diaz,D
AU  - Do,HT
AU  - El,Sayed Zaki M
AU  - El,Tantawi M
AU  - Elemineh,DA
AU  - Faraj,A
AU  - Fasihi,Harandi M
AU  - Fatahi,Y
AU  - Feigin,VL
AU  - Fernandes,E
AU  - Foigt,NA
AU  - Foroutan,M
AU  - Franklin,RC
AU  - Gubari,MIM
AU  - Guido,D
AU  - Guo,Y
AU  - Haj-Mirzaian,A
AU  - Hamagharib,Abdullah K
AU  - Hamidi,S
AU  - Herteliu,C
AU  - Hidru,HDD
AU  - Higazi,TB
AU  - Hossain,N
AU  - Hosseinzadeh,M
AU  - Househ,M
AU  - Ilesanmi,OS
AU  - Ilic,MD
AU  - Ilic,IM
AU  - Iqbal,U
AU  - Irvani,SSN
AU  - Jha,RP
AU  - Joukar,F
AU  - Jozwiak,JJ
AU  - Kabir,Z
AU  - Kalankesh,LR
AU  - Kalhor,R
AU  - Karami,Matin B
AU  - Karimi,SE
AU  - Kasaeian,A
AU  - Kavetskyy,T
AU  - Kayode,GA
AU  - Kazemi,Karyani A
AU  - Kelbore,AG
AU  - Keramati,M
AU  - Khalilov,R
AU  - Khan,EA
AU  - Khan,MNN
AU  - Khatab,K
AU  - Khater,MM
AU  - Kianipour,N
AU  - Kibret,KT
AU  - Kim,YJ
AU  - Kosen,S
AU  - Krohn,KJ
AU  - Kusuma,D
AU  - La,Vecchia C
AU  - Lansingh,VC
AU  - Lee,PH
AU  - LeGrand,KE
AU  - Li,S
AU  - Longbottom,J
AU  - Magdy,Abd El Razek H
AU  - Magdy,Abd El Razek M
AU  - Maleki,A
AU  - Mamun,AA
AU  - Manafi,A
AU  - Manafi,N
AU  - Mansournia,MA
AU  - Martins-Melo,FR
AU  - Mazidi,M
AU  - McAlinden,C
AU  - Meharie,BG
AU  - Mendoza,W
AU  - Mengesha,EW
AU  - Mengistu,DT
AU  - Mereta,ST
AU  - Mestrovic,T
AU  - Miller,TR
AU  - Miri,M
AU  - Moghadaszadeh,M
AU  - Mohammadian-Hafshejani,A
AU  - Mohammadpourhodki,R
AU  - Mohammed,S
AU  - Mohammed,S
AU  - Moradi,M
AU  - Moradzadeh,R
AU  - Moraga,P
AU  - Mosser,JF
AU  - Naderi,M
AU  - Nagarajan,AJ
AU  - Naik,G
AU  - Negoi,I
AU  - Nguyen,CT
AU  - Nguyen,HLT
AU  - Nguyen,TH
AU  - Nikbakhsh,R
AU  - Oancea,B
AU  - Olagunju,TO
AU  - Olagunju,AT
AU  - Omar,Bali A
AU  - Onwujekwe,OE
AU  - Pana,A
AU  - Pourjafar,H
AU  - Rahim,F
AU  - Rahman,MHU
AU  - Rathi,P
AU  - Rawaf,S
AU  - Rawaf,DL
AU  - Rawassizadeh,R
AU  - Resnikoff,S
AU  - Reta,MA
AU  - Rezapour,A
AU  - Rubagotti,E
AU  - Rubino,S
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824
EP  - 23
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 1935-2727
SP  - 1
TI  - Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning.
T2  - PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34319976
UR  - https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/90836
VL  - 15
ER  -
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