Imperial College London
Alternate

Prof Marc Chadeau-Hyam

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Computational Epidemiology and Biostatistics
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 1637m.chadeau

 
 
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Location

 

520Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@unpublished{Chadeau-Hyam:2021,
author = {Chadeau-Hyam, M and Eales, O and Bodinier, B and Wang, H and Haw, D and Whitaker, M and Walters, C and Atchison, C and Diggle, P and Page, A and Ashby, D and Barclay, W and Taylor, G and Cooke, G and Ward, H and Darzi, A and Donnelly, C and Elliott, P},
title = {REACT-1 round 15 interim report: Exponential rise in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England from end September 2021 followed by dip during October 2021},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/92366},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - UNPB
AB  - Background: The third wave of COVID-19 in England coincided with the rapid spread of theDelta variant of SARS-CoV-2 from the end of May 2021. Case incidence data from thenational testing programme (Pillar 2) in England may be affected by changes in testingbehaviour and other biases. Community surveys may provide important contextualinformation to inform policy and the public health response.Methods: We estimated patterns of community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection inEngland using RT-PCR swab-positivity, demographic and other risk factor data from round15 (interim) of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study(round 15a, carried out from 19 to 29 October 2021). We compared these findings with thosefrom round 14 (9 to 27 September 2021).Results: During mid- to late-October 2021 (round 15a) weighted prevalence was 1.72%(1.61%, 1.84%) compared to 0.83% (0.76%, 0.89%) in September 2021 (round 14). Theoverall reproduction number (R) from round 14 to round 15a was 1.12 (1.11, 1.14) withincreases in prevalence over this period (September to October) across age groups andregions except Yorkshire and The Humber. However, within round 15a (mid- to late-October)there was evidence of a fall in prevalence with R of 0.76 (0.65, 0.88). The highest weightedprevalence was observed among children aged 5 to 12 years at 5.85% (5.10%, 6.70%) and13 to 17 years at 5.75% (5.02%, 6.57%). At regional level, there was an almost four-foldincrease in weighted prevalence in South West from round 14 at 0.59% (0.43%,0.80%) toround 15a at 2.18% (1.84%, 2.58%), with highest smoothed prevalence at subregional levelalso found in South West in round 15a. Age, sex, key worker status, and presence ofchildren in the home jointly contributed to the risk of swab-positivity. Among the 126sequenced positive swabs obtained up until 23 October, all were Delta variant; 13 (10.3%)were identified as the AY.4.2 sub-lineage.Discussion: We observed the highest overall prevalence of swab-p
AU  - Chadeau-Hyam,M
AU  - Eales,O
AU  - Bodinier,B
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Haw,D
AU  - Whitaker,M
AU  - Walters,C
AU  - Atchison,C
AU  - Diggle,P
AU  - Page,A
AU  - Ashby,D
AU  - Barclay,W
AU  - Taylor,G
AU  - Cooke,G
AU  - Ward,H
AU  - Darzi,A
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Elliott,P
PY  - 2021///
TI  - REACT-1 round 15 interim report: Exponential rise in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England from end September 2021 followed by dip during October 2021
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/92366
ER  -
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