Imperial College London
Alternate

Prof Marc Chadeau-Hyam

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Computational Epidemiology and Biostatistics
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 1637m.chadeau

 
 
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Location

 

520Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Elliott:2023:10.1101/2023.01.09.23284368,
author = {Elliott, J and Bodinier, B and Whitaker, M and Tzoulaki, I and Elliott, P and Chadeau-Hyam, M},
doi = {10.1101/2023.01.09.23284368},
title = {Improving cardiovascular risk prediction beyond pooled cohort equations: a prospective cohort of 304,356 participants},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2023.01.09.23284368},
year = {2023}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) are used to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Inclusion of other variables may improve risk prediction.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Objective</jats:title><jats:p>Identify variables improving CVD risk prediction beyond recalibrated PCE.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Design</jats:title><jats:p>Prospective cohort study; sex-stratified Cox survival models with LASSO stability selection to predict CVD in non-overlapping subsets: variable selection (40%), model training (30%) and testing (30%).</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Setting</jats:title><jats:p>UK population.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Participants</jats:title><jats:p>UK Biobank: 121,724 and 182,632 healthy men and women, respectively, aged 38-73 years at baseline.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Measurements</jats:title><jats:p>Personal/family medical history; lifestyle factors; genetic, biochemical, hematological, and metabolomic blood markers. Outcomes were incident hospitalization or mortality from CVD.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>There were 11,899 (men) and 9,110 (women) incident CVD cases with median 12.1 years follow-up. Variables selected for both men and women were: age, albumin, antihypertensive medication, apolipoprotein B, atrial fibrillation, C-reactive protein, current smoker, cystatin C, family history of coronary artery disease, glycated hemoglobin, polygenic risk score (PRS) for CVD and systolic blood pressure. Also selected: apolipoprotein A1, lipoprotein(a), white blood cell count, deprivation index (men); triglycerides (women).
AU  - Elliott,J
AU  - Bodinier,B
AU  - Whitaker,M
AU  - Tzoulaki,I
AU  - Elliott,P
AU  - Chadeau-Hyam,M
DO  - 10.1101/2023.01.09.23284368
PY  - 2023///
TI  - Improving cardiovascular risk prediction beyond pooled cohort equations: a prospective cohort of 304,356 participants
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2023.01.09.23284368
ER  -
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