Imperial College London


Faculty of Natural SciencesCentre for Environmental Policy

Visiting Researcher



+44 (0)20 7594 9247m.jansen CV




40116 Prince's GardensSouth Kensington Campus





Publication Type

19 results found

Hansen TA, Wilson EJ, Fitts JP, Jansen M, Beiter P, Steffen B, Xu B, Guillet J, Münster M, Kitzing Let al., 2024, Five grand challenges of offshore wind financing in the United States

Offshore wind energy has the potential to play a critical role in fostering a renewable energy transformation in the United States. This owes to its massive technical potential, strategic location near densely populated coastlines, and—relative to onshore wind and solar—high capacity factors and consistent production. The Biden Administration's target to build 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 (from 0.04 GW today) requires the creation and swift development of a new industry that interlinks the wind and power industries with the maritime sector. Critical to its success is financing. While financial capital is abundant, deploying it for offshore wind faces major challenges. We identify and describe five grand challenges affecting offshore wind finance in the U.S. Failing to address these challenges may put deployment targets at risk. The challenges include (1) Early years financing: navigating the complexities, timing mismatches, and high costs of projects in the development phase; (2) Policy support for project financial solvency: addressing the uncertainty and systematic transfers of tax credits away from offshore wind, characteristic of the U.S. Investment Tax Credit; (3) Workforce development: building a skilled workforce for an emerging market; (4) Transmission and integration barriers: upgrading the power grid to reliably support large scale offshore wind integration; and (5) Floating wind development: financing the development and scale-up of floating offshore wind technologies. The second challenge has already been solved to a large extent by the Inflation Reduction Act.


Beiter P, Guillet J, Jansen M, Wilson E, Kitzing Let al., 2024, The enduring role of contracts for difference in risk management and market creation for renewables, Nature Energy, Vol: 9, Pages: 20-26

Governments procure renewables through a variety of mechanisms. Contracts for difference (CfDs) have been used for more than 50% of the global offshore wind supply. The payments awarded through CfDs are sometimes labelled subsidies, suggesting that they support uneconomic activity. Here, we argue that the primary role of CfDs is rather risk management by creating a market for electricity supply at stable long-term prices. Similar to its use in other sectors of the economy, this contract type transforms a variable to a fixed price to reallocate volatility risks. Such long-term contracts are often necessary for renewables financing due to limited hedging options in existing markets. Our perspective could imply a shift in perception towards CfDs as a fundamental and lasting market feature. We hope to stimulate a timely discussion about the impact of greater CfD diffusion on electricity market mechanisms, risk allocation and the potential for combining fragmented streams of energy finance, market and policy research.

Journal article

Jansen M, Duffy C, Green T, Staffell Iet al., 2022, Island in the Sea: The prospects and impacts of an offshore wind power hub in the North Sea, Advances in Applied Energy, Vol: 6, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 2666-7924

Europe's offshore wind capacity is increasing rapidly, with larger turbines installed further from shore. TenneT proposed an innovative concept, the North Sea Wind Power Hub, in which several farms are connected to an artificial island which has interconnection to surrounding countries. This aims to reduce overall costs, but studies have so far evaluated hypothetical designs rather than the specific system operators’ proposal, and focused primarily on construction costs rather than ongoing system-wide impacts. Here we develop a bottom-up capital cost estimate to compare the Power Hub with conventional point-to-point connection for offshore wind farms. We quantify its consequential impacts on regional electricity prices, the value of wind generation, fossil fuel generation and carbon emissions in 2030 using a pan-European electricity market model. We find that the Power Hub is cheaper if more than 10 GW of wind is built, as the avoided cost of multiple converter platforms offsets the cost of building an artificial island. It has profound impacts on electricity markets across Europe, especially in Britain and Ireland if they gain more interconnection to continental Europe. This impacts the economic viability of wind and gas power stations particularly, and saves 10Mt CO2 per year through reduced curtailment.

Journal article

Jansen M, Beiter P, Riepin I, Musgens F, Guajardo-Fajardo VJ, Staffell I, Bulder B, Kitzing Let al., 2022, Policy choices and outcomes for offshore wind auctions globally, Energy Policy, Vol: 167, Pages: 1-17, ISSN: 0301-4215

Offshore wind energy is rapidly expanding, facilitated largely through auctions run by governments. We provide a detailed quantified overview of utilised auction schemes, including geographical spread, volumes, results, and design specifications. Our comprehensive global dataset reveals heterogeneous designs. Although most auction designs provide some form of revenue stabilisation, their specific instrument choices vary and include feed-in tariffs, one-sided and two-sided contracts for difference, mandated power purchase agreements, and mandated renewable energy certificates.We review the schemes used in all eight major offshore wind jurisdictions across Europe, Asia, and North America and evaluate bids in their jurisdictional context. We analyse cost competitiveness, likelihood of timely construction, occurrence of strategic bidding, and identify jurisdictional aspects that might have influenced auction results. We find that auctions are embedded within their respective regulatory and market design context, and are remarkably diverse, though with regional similarities. Auctions in each jurisdiction have evolved and tend to become more exposed to market price risks over time. Less mature markets are more prone to make use of lower-risk designs. Still, some form of revenue stabilisation is employed for all auctioned offshore wind energy farms analysed here, regardless of the specific policy choices. Our data confirm a coincidence of declining costs and growing diffusion of auction regimes.

Journal article

McKenna R, Pfenninger S, Heinrichs H, Schmidt J, Staffell I, Bauer C, Gruber K, Hahmann AN, Jansen M, Klingler M, Landwehr N, Larsen XG, Lilliestam J, Pickering B, Robinius M, Trondle T, Turkovska O, Wehrle S, Weinand JM, Wohland Jet al., 2022, High-resolution large-scale onshore wind energy assessments: A review of potential definitions, methodologies and future research needs (vol 182, pg 659, 2021), RENEWABLE ENERGY, Vol: 190, Pages: 1128-1128, ISSN: 0960-1481

Journal article

McKenna R, Pfenninger S, Heinrichs H, Schmidt J, Staffell I, Bauer C, Gruber K, Hahmann AN, Jansen M, Klingler M, Landwehr N, Larsén XG, Lilliestam J, Pickering B, Robinius M, Tröndle T, Turkovska O, Wehrle S, Weinand JM, Wohland Jet al., 2022, High-resolution large-scale onshore wind energy assessments: A review of potential definitions, methodologies and future research needs, Renewable Energy, Vol: 182, Pages: 659-684, ISSN: 0960-1481

The rapid uptake of renewable energy technologies in recent decades has increased the demand of energy researchers, policymakers and energy planners for reliable data on the spatial distribution of their costs and potentials. For onshore wind energy this has resulted in an active research field devoted to analysing these resources for regions, countries or globally. A particular thread of this research attempts to go beyond purely technical or spatial restrictions and determine the realistic, feasible or actual potential for wind energy. Motivated by these developments, this paper reviews methods and assumptions for analysing geographical, technical, economic and, finally, feasible onshore wind potentials. We address each of these potentials in turn, including aspects related to land eligibility criteria, energy meteorology, and technical developments of wind turbine characteristics such as power density, specific rotor power and spacing aspects. Economic aspects of potential assessments are central to future deployment and are discussed on a turbine and system level covering levelized costs depending on locations, and the system integration costs which are often overlooked in such analyses. Non-technical approaches include scenicness assessments of the landscape, constraints due to regulation or public opposition, expert and stakeholder workshops, willingness to pay/accept elicitations and socioeconomic cost-benefit studies. For each of these different potential estimations, the state of the art is critically discussed, with an attempt to derive best practice recommendations and highlight avenues for future research.

Journal article

Halttunen K, Staffell I, Slade R, Green R, Saint-Drenan Y-M, Jansen Met al., 2020, Global assessment of the merit-order effect and revenue cannibalisation for variable renewable energy, Publisher: Elsevier

The rapid growth of wind and solar power has been a major driver for decarbonisation worldwide. They tend to reduce wholesale electricity prices, both the time-weighted average (the merit‑order effect) and their own output-weighted average (price cannibalisation). Whilst these effects have been widely observed, most previous studies focus on single countries. Here, we compare 37 electricity markets across Europe, North America, Australia and Japan and explore variations between them.Merit-order and cannibalisation effects are observed in nearly all countries studied. However, only in Germany, Spain, Poland, Portugal, Denmark and California can renewable output explain more than 10% of variation in wholesale electricity prices. The global average merit‑order effect is €0.68±€0.54 /MWh per percentage point increase in variable renewable energy penetration, and this falls with higher penetration. Revenues captured by wind farms decrease by 0.23% (€0.16 /MWh) for each percentage point increase of wind penetration and by 1.94% (€0.90 /MWh) for solar PV.

Working paper

Saint-Drenan Y-M, Besseau R, Jansen M, Staffell I, Troccoli A, Dubus L, Schmidt J, Gruber K, Simões SG, Heier Set al., 2020, A parametric model for wind turbine power curves incorporating environmental conditions, Renewable Energy, Vol: 157, Pages: 754-768, ISSN: 0960-1481

A wind turbine’s power curve relates its power production to the wind speed it experiences. The typical shape of a power curve is well known and has been studied extensively. However, power curves of individual turbine models can vary widely from one another. This is due to both the technical features of the turbine (power density, cut-in and cut-out speeds, limits on rotational speed and aerodynamic efficiency), and environmental factors (turbulence intensity, air density, wind shear and wind veer). Data on individual power curves are often proprietary and only available through commercial databases. We therefore develop an open-source model for pitch regulated horizontal axis wind turbine which can generate the power curve of any turbine, adapted to the specific conditions of any site. This can employ one of six parametric models advanced in the literature, and accounts for the eleven variables mentioned above. The model is described, the impact of each technical and environmental feature is examined, and it is then validated against the manufacturer power curves of 91 turbine models. Versions of the model are made available in MATLAB, R and Python code for the community.

Journal article

Jansen M, Staffell I, Kitzing L, Quoilin S, Wiggelinkhuizen E, Bulder B, Riepin I, Muesgens Fet al., 2020, Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy, Nature Energy, Vol: 5, Pages: 614-622, ISSN: 2058-7546

Offshore wind energy development has been driven by government support schemes; however, recent cost reductions raise the prospect of offshore wind power becoming cheaper than conventional power generation. Many countries use auctions to provide financial support; however, differences in auction design make their results difficult to compare. Here, we harmonize the auction results from five countries based on their design features, showing that offshore wind power generation can be considered commercially competitive in mature markets. Between 2015 and 2019, the price paid for power from offshore wind farms across northern Europe fell by 11.9 ± 1.6% per year. The bids received in 2019 translate to an average price of €51 ± 3 MWh−1, and substantially different auction designs have received comparably low bids. The level of subsidy implied by the auction results depends on future power prices; however, projects in Germany and the Netherlands are already subsidy-free, and it appears likely that in 2019 the United Kingdom will have auctioned the world’s first negative-subsidy offshore wind farm.

Journal article

Jansen M, 2020, Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy - Supplementary Software

This is the software and data set named "Supplementary Software 1" for the research paper "Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy". Please refer to the README file in the ZIP file for instructions. The paper is currently under review and access is for peer-review purposes only.


Jansen M, Staffell I, Green R, 2018, Daily marginal CO2Emissions eeductions from wind and solar generation, 15th Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Publisher: IEEE, ISSN: 2165-4093

This paper estimates the half-hourly and daily CO 2 emissions from electricity generation in Britain, and the influence that wind and solar output has on these. Emissions are inferred from the output of individual plants and their expected efficiency, accounting for the penalty of part-loading thermal generators. Empirical Willans lines are created for typical coal, oil and combined-cycle gas generators from the US CEMS database, giving the first fully-empirical treatment of the British power system. We compare regressions of half-hourly and daily emissions to estimate the impact of plant start-ups, which may not occur in the specific hours when wind and solar output drops, and thus may be mis-identified in half-hourly regressions. Our preliminary findings show that dynamic plant efficiency may reduce the carbon savings from wind by 5-12% and for solar by 0-6%. The effect is strengthening with increasing penetration.

Conference paper

Green R, Jansen M, Staffell I, Ward Ket al., 2018, Electricity, Wind and Carbon: What determines the emissions savings from wind power in Great Britain?, Conference on Renewable Energy and Electricity Markets

Conference paper

Hoffman PF, Abbot DS, Ashkenazy Y, Benn DI, Brocks JJ, Cohen PA, Cox GM, Creveling JR, Donnadieu Y, Erwin DH, Fairchild IJ, Ferreira D, Goodman JC, Halverson GP, Jansen MF, Le Hir G, Love GD, Macdonald FA, Maloof AC, Partin CA, Ramstein G, Rose BEJ, Rose CV, Sadler PM, Tziperman E, Voigt A, Warren SGet al., 2017, Snowball Earth climate dynamics and Cryogenian geology-geobiology, SCIENCE ADVANCES, Vol: 3, ISSN: 2375-2548

Journal article

Jansen M, 2016, Economics of control reserve provision by fluctuating renewable energy sources

The provision of control reserve, and therefore contributing to the secure operation of the power system, is paramount in a future energy system with increasing shares of fluctuating renewable energy sources. This doctoral thesis proves that fluctuating renewable energy sources, such as onshore and offshore wind farms as well as photovoltaic systems, are capable of providing control reserve at the same level of reliability as conventional generators. It is shown that the introduction of fluctuating renewables to the control reserve market can access a welfare gain that could be realized as additional income by the new market participants or as cost saving potential of the control reserve procurement. The dependency analysis between the welfare gain and the regulatory framework leads to recommendations for the development of the control reserve market.

Thesis dissertation

Jansen M, 2016, Economics of control reserve provision by fluctuating renewable energy sources, 2016 13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Publisher: IEEE, ISSN: 2165-4077

The delivery of control reserve by fluctuating renewable energy sources (RES) generators will be important in an energy system with high RES penetration. This paper extends a previously introduced methodology to quantify the possible additional income of different pools of fluctuating RES generators in the negative secondary and tertiary control reserve market in Germany. The updated methodology allows concluding on the ideal market conditions by comparing different pool types and years. The development of the results over a long assessment period allows extrapolating the market value of the new market participants into the future. Results show a high dependency of the possible additional income on the overall market size and the market conditions and regulations.

Conference paper

Richts C, Jansen M, Siefert M, 2015, Determining the economic value of offshore wind power plants in the changing energy system, 12th Deep Sea Offshore Wind R and D Conference (EERA DeepWind), Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, Pages: 422-432, ISSN: 1876-6102

Conference paper

Hennig T, Loewer L, Faiella LM, Stock S, Jansen M, Hofmann L, Rohrig Ket al., 2014, Ancillary Services Analysis of an Offshore Wind Farm Cluster - Technical Integration Steps of a Simulation Tool, EERA 11th Deep Sea Offshore Wind R and D Conference (DeepWind), Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, Pages: 114-123, ISSN: 1876-6102

Conference paper

Jansen M, Speckmann M, 2013, Participation of photovoltaic systems in control reserve markets

Photovoltaic (PV) systems have not provided control reserve until now in Germany although the installed capacity is increasing constantly. This paper will give an overview of how PV systems could deliver control reserve to the system. A new proof method for the offering of control reserve provision is presented. Results show an economic opportunity for PV systems if they opt to offer negative control reserves. The cost saving potentials under realistic conditions can reach up to 6.5 % in the tertiary control reserve market and up to 3.9 % in the secondary control reserve market.

Conference paper

Jansen M, Speckmann M, 2013, Wind turbine participation on control reserve markets, Pages: 1432-1439

Under current frame work conditions wind turbines are not able to participate in control reserve markets, although they are contributing an increasing share of the electricity in the power system. The introduction of an "optional market premium" in the revision of the German Renewable Energies Act (EEG) by January 2012 has set the legislative framework for the integration of wind farms into the existing market structures. This led to the successful integration in power exchange markets, whereas wind farms have not yet participated in control reserve markets in Germany, due to the lack of proper regulations. Currently the proof is done by comparing the planned power production and the real power production. The difference has to match the control reserve power. Applying this method to wind farms will enforce them to stick to a schedule. Instead of this a method is shown and demonstrated which is suitable for wind farms and for all three kinds of control reserve (primary, secondary and tertiary control). By comparing the available active power with the real power production the delivery of energy from control reserve can be proven. The available active power is the power that would have been produced if the wind farms had not been down-regulated. The creation of bids for the control reserve markets will utilize probabilistic forecasts. Wind farms are capable of providing control reserve on very high security levels. They can compete economically with conventional generation. The cost saving potentials can reach up to 24 % in the tertiary control reserve market with the most suitable conditions.

Conference paper

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