Imperial College London

DrMichaelJoffe

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Emeritus Reader
 
 
 
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m.joffe

 
 
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Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
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97 results found

Joffe M, 2019, Mechanism in behavioural economics, Journal of Economic Methodology, Vol: 26, Pages: 228-242, ISSN: 1350-178X

Behavioural economics promises to bring economics closer to being evidence based. However, its ability to do this may depend on a methodological issue: whether the findings of behavioural economics are used to modify or extend standard theory, or to contribute towards replacing it where required – respectively the incremental and selective replacement strategies. I focus on the incremental approach, in terms of its implied causal mechanism. Two stages are involved, corresponding to the prediction of standard theory and to a separate component that aligns it with actual observations. In behavioural economics, one possible interpretation of the language of ‘biases’ is such a two-stage approach. More explicitly, Rabin advocates it in the form of PEEMs (Portable Extensions of Existing Models). A more direct, one-stage approach may have some advantages, at least for some research topics.

Journal article

Joffe M, 2017, Causal theories, models and evidence in economics-some reflections from the natural sciences, Cogent Economics and Finance, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2332-2039

Models have been extensively analysed in economic methodology, notably their degree of ability to provide explanations. This paper takes a complementary, comparative approach, examining theory development in the natural sciences. Examples show how diverse types of evidence combine with causal hypotheses to generate empirically based causal theories—a cumulative process occurring over a long timescale. Models are typically nested within this broader theory. This could be a good model for research in economics, providing a methodology that ensures good correspondence with the target system—especially as economics research is largely empirical, and has effective methods for causal inference. This paper analyses the key features of three successful theories in the natural sciences, and draws out some lessons that may be useful to economists. Some examples of good practice in economics are noted, e.g. involving money and banking, and the growth of the state. On the other hand, the widespread pre-crisis use of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models that ignored the financial sector raises the question, how to realise what has been omitted? Nesting models in an empirically based causal theory could solve this. Furthermore, some phenomena have clear explanations, but mainstream theory obscures them, as with the Lucas puzzle about the direction of international capital flows. And, the prevailing theories about capitalist growth do not explain the basic evidence on its temporal and spatial distribution. Economics could beneficially learn from the natural sciences.

Journal article

Almond D, Edlund L, Joffe M, Palme Met al., 2016, An adaptive significance of morning sickness? Trivers-Willard and Hyperemesis Gravidarum, ECONOMICS & HUMAN BIOLOGY, Vol: 21, Pages: 167-171, ISSN: 1570-677X

Journal article

Joffe M, 2015, Selection Bias Due to Parity-conditioning in Studies of Time Trends in Fertility, EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 26, Pages: E67-E67, ISSN: 1044-3983

Journal article

Rehfuess EA, Best N, Briggs DJ, Joffe Met al., 2013, Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS): elucidating inter-relationships between determinants of acute lower respiratory infections among children in sub-Saharan Africa., Emerg Themes Epidemiol, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1742-7622

BACKGROUND: Effective interventions require evidence on how individual causal pathways jointly determine disease. Based on the concept of systems epidemiology, this paper develops Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS) as an approach to analyze complex systems, and applies it by examining the contributions of proximal and distal determinants of childhood acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems combines the use of causal diagrams with multiple routinely available data sources, using a variety of statistical techniques. In a step-by-step process, the causal diagram evolves from conceptual based on a priori knowledge and assumptions, through operational informed by data availability which then undergoes empirical testing, to integrated which synthesizes information from multiple datasets. In our application, we apply different regression techniques to Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets for Benin, Ethiopia, Kenya and Namibia and a pooled World Health Survey (WHS) dataset for sixteen African countries. Explicit strategies are employed to make decisions transparent about the inclusion/omission of arrows, the sign and strength of the relationships and homogeneity/heterogeneity across settings.Findings about the current state of evidence on the complex web of socio-economic, environmental, behavioral and healthcare factors influencing childhood ALRI, based on DHS and WHS data, are summarized in an integrated causal diagram. Notably, solid fuel use is structured by socio-economic factors and increases the risk of childhood ALRI mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems is a means of organizing the current state of knowledge about a specific area of research, and a framework for integrating statistical analyses across a whole system. This partly a priori approach is explicit about causal assumptions guiding the analysis and about researcher judgment, and wrong

Journal article

Joffe M, 2013, The Concept of Causation in Biology, ERKENNTNIS, Vol: 78, Pages: 179-197, ISSN: 0165-0106

Journal article

Joffe M, Holmes J, Jensen TK, Keiding N, Best Net al., 2013, Time Trends in Biological Fertility in Western Europe, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 178, Pages: 722-730, ISSN: 0002-9262

Journal article

Joffe M, Gambhir M, Chadeau-Hyam M, Vineis Pet al., 2012, Causal diagrams in systems epidemiology, Emerging Themes in Epidemiology, Vol: 9, ISSN: 1742-7622

Methods of diagrammatic modelling have been greatly developed in the past two decades. Outside the context of infectious diseases, systematic use of diagrams in epidemiology has been mainly confined to the analysis of a single link: that between a disease outcome and its proximal determinant(s). Transmitted causes ("causes of causes") tend not to be systematically analysed.The infectious disease epidemiology modelling tradition models the human population in its environment, typically with the exposure-health relationship and the determinants of exposure being considered at individual and group/ecological levels, respectively. Some properties of the resulting systems are quite general, and are seen in unrelated contexts such as biochemical pathways. Confining analysis to a single link misses the opportunity to discover such properties.The structure of a causal diagram is derived from knowledge about how the world works, as well as from statistical evidence. A single diagram can be used to characterise a whole research area, not just a single analysis - although this depends on the degree of consistency of the causal relationships between different populations - and can therefore be used to integrate multiple datasets.Additional advantages of system-wide models include: the use of instrumental variables - now emerging as an important technique in epidemiology in the context of mendelian randomisation, but under-used in the exploitation of "natural experiments"; the explicit use of change models, which have advantages with respect to inferring causation; and in the detection and elucidation of feedback.

Journal article

Joffe M, 2011, The gap between evidence discovery and actual causal relationships, PREVENTIVE MEDICINE, Vol: 53, Pages: 246-249, ISSN: 0091-7435

Journal article

Joffe M, 2011, The root cause of economic growth under capitalism, CAMBRIDGE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, Vol: 35, Pages: 873-896, ISSN: 0309-166X

Journal article

de Nazelle A, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Anto JM, Brauer M, Briggs D, Braun-Fahrlander C, Cavill N, Cooper AR, Desqueyroux H, Fruin S, Hoek G, Panis LI, Janssen N, Jerrett M, Joffe M, Andersen ZJ, van Kempen E, Kingham S, Kubesch N, Leyden KM, Marshall JD, Matamala J, Mellios G, Mendez M, Nassif H, Ogilvie D, Peiro R, Perez K, Rabl A, Ragettli M, Rodriguez D, Rojas D, Ruiz P, Sallis JF, Terwoert J, Toussaint J-F, Tuomisto J, Zuurbier M, Lebret Eet al., 2011, Improving health through policies that promote active travel: A review of evidence to support integrated health impact assessment, ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL, Vol: 37, Pages: 766-777, ISSN: 0160-4120

Journal article

Joffe M, 2011, Brief Note Introducing the Language of Causal Analysis, JOURNAL OF HEALTHCARE ENGINEERING, Vol: 2, Pages: 111-116, ISSN: 2040-2295

Journal article

Joffe M, 2011, CAUSALITY AND EVIDENCE DISCOVERY IN EPIDEMIOLOGY, Workshop on Explanation, Prediction, and Confirmation in Biology and Medicine, Publisher: SPRINGER, Pages: 153-166

Conference paper

Rehfuess EA, Briggs DJ, Joffe M, Best Net al., 2010, Bayesian modelling of household solid fuel use: Insights towards designing effective interventions to promote fuel switching in Africa, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, Vol: 110, Pages: 725-732, ISSN: 0013-9351

Journal article

Mindell J, Biddulph J, Taylor L, Lock K, Boaz A, Joffe M, Curtis Set al., 2010, Improving the use of evidence in health impact assessment, BULLETIN OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, Vol: 88, Pages: 543-550, ISSN: 0042-9686

Journal article

Joffe M, 2010, What has happened to human fertility?, HUMAN REPRODUCTION, Vol: 25, Pages: 295-307, ISSN: 0268-1161

Journal article

Joffe M, 2010, Validity of Self-reported Time to Pregnancy, EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 21, Pages: 160-161, ISSN: 1044-3983

Journal article

Joffe M, 2010, Semen quality analysis and the idea of normal fertility, ASIAN JOURNAL OF ANDROLOGY, Vol: 12, Pages: 79-82, ISSN: 1008-682X

Journal article

Rehfuess EA, Tzala L, Best N, Briggs DJ, Joffe Met al., 2009, Solid fuel use and cooking practices as a major risk factor for ALRI mortality among African children, JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH, Vol: 63, Pages: 887-892, ISSN: 0143-005X

Journal article

Joffe M, Key J, Best N, Jensen TK, Keiding Net al., 2009, The role of biological fertility in predicting family size, HUMAN REPRODUCTION, Vol: 24, Pages: 1999-2006, ISSN: 0268-1161

Journal article

Key J, Best N, Joffe M, Jensen TK, Keiding Net al., 2009, Methodological Issues in Analyzing Time Trends in Biologic Fertility: Protection Bias, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 169, Pages: 285-293, ISSN: 0002-9262

Journal article

Joffe M, 2008, The need for strategic health assessment, EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 18, Pages: 439-440, ISSN: 1101-1262

Journal article

Joffe M, Paranjothy S, Fielder H, Lyons R, Palmer Set al., 2008, Use of time to pregnancy in environmental epidemiology and surveillance, JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 30, Pages: 178-185, ISSN: 1741-3842

Journal article

Scheike TH, Rylander L, Carstensen L, Keiding N, Jensen TK, Stromberg U, Joffe M, Akre Oet al., 2008, Time trends in human fecundability in Sweden, EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 19, Pages: 191-196, ISSN: 1044-3983

Journal article

Wilkinson P, Smith KR, Joffe M, Haines Aet al., 2007, Energy and Health 1 - A global perspective on energy: health effects and injustices, LANCET, Vol: 370, Pages: 965-978, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

Joffe M, 2007, Health, livelihoods, and nutrition in low-income rural systems, FOOD AND NUTRITION BULLETIN, Vol: 28, Pages: S227-S236, ISSN: 0379-5721

Journal article

Jensen TK, Joffe M, Bonde JP, 2007, Extremely low-frequency magnetic fields and fertility in welders - Reply, OCCUPATIONAL MEDICINE-OXFORD, Vol: 57, Pages: 225-226, ISSN: 0962-7480

Journal article

Joffe M, Bennett J, Best N, Jensen TKet al., 2007, Sex ratio and time to pregnancy: analysis of four large European population surveys, BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 334, Pages: 524-526A, ISSN: 1756-1833

Journal article

Joffe M, 2007, What harms the developing male reproductive system?, 3rd International Congress on Male Mediated Developmental Toxicity, Publisher: ROYAL SOC CHEMISTRY, Pages: 28-+, ISSN: 1757-7179

Conference paper

Jensen TK, Joffe M, Scheike T, Skytthe A, Gaist D, Petersen I, Christensen Ket al., 2006, Early exposure to smoking and future fecundity among Danish twins, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ANDROLOGY, Vol: 29, Pages: 603-613, ISSN: 0105-6263

Journal article

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