Imperial College London
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DrMatthewKasoar

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Physics

Research Associate
 
 
 
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Contact

 

m.kasoar12

 
 
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Location

 

062ChemistrySouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Richardson:2019:10.1029/2019JD030581,
author = {Richardson, TB and Forster, PM and Smith, CJ and Maycock, AC and Wood, T and Andrews, T and Boucher, O and Faluvegi, G and Flaeschner, D and Hodnebrog, O and Kasoar, M and Kirkevag, A and Lamarque, J-F and Muelmenstaedt, J and Myhre, G and Olivie, D and Portmann, RW and Samset, BH and Shawki, D and Shindell, D and Stier, P and Takemura, T and Voulgarakis, A and Watson-Parris, D},
doi = {10.1029/2019JD030581},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
pages = {12824--12844},
title = {Efficacy of climate forcings in PDRMIP models},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030581},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the realworld climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean nearsurface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacyinduced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.
AU  - Richardson,TB
AU  - Forster,PM
AU  - Smith,CJ
AU  - Maycock,AC
AU  - Wood,T
AU  - Andrews,T
AU  - Boucher,O
AU  - Faluvegi,G
AU  - Flaeschner,D
AU  - Hodnebrog,O
AU  - Kasoar,M
AU  - Kirkevag,A
AU  - Lamarque,J-F
AU  - Muelmenstaedt,J
AU  - Myhre,G
AU  - Olivie,D
AU  - Portmann,RW
AU  - Samset,BH
AU  - Shawki,D
AU  - Shindell,D
AU  - Stier,P
AU  - Takemura,T
AU  - Voulgarakis,A
AU  - Watson-Parris,D
DO  - 10.1029/2019JD030581
EP  - 12844
PY  - 2019///
SN  - 2169-897X
SP  - 12824
TI  - Efficacy of climate forcings in PDRMIP models
T2  - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030581
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000505626200026&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019JD030581
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/79963
VL  - 124
ER  -
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