Imperial College London

ProfessorMarisaMiraldo

Business School

Professor in Health Economics and Policy
 
 
 
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418Business School BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

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99 results found

Goiana-Da-Silva F, Miraldo M, 2022, Modelling the health impact of legislation to limit the salt content of bread in Portugal: a macro simulation study, Frontiers in Public Health, ISSN: 2296-2565

Background: Excessive salt consumption - associated with a range of adverse health outcomes – is very high in Portugal, and bread is the second largest source. Current Portuguese legislation sets a maximum limit of 1.4g salt per 100g bread, but imported and traditional breads are exempted. In 2017 the Ministry of Health proposed reducing the salt threshold to 1.0g/100g by 2022, however the legislation was vetoed by the European Commission on free-trade grounds. Aims: To estimate the health impact of subjecting imported and traditional breads to the current 1.4g threshold, and to model the potential health impact of implementing the proposed 1.0g threshold. Methods: We gathered bread sales, salt consumption, and epidemiological data from robust publicly available data sources. We used the open source WHO PRIME modelling tool to estimate the number of salt-related deaths that would have been averted in 2016 (the latest year for which all data were available) from; 1) Extending the 1.4g threshold to all types of bread, and 2) Applying the 1.0g threshold to all bread sold in Portugal. We used Monte Carlo simulations to generate confidence intervals. Results: Applying the current 1.4g threshold to imported and traditional bread would have averted 107 deaths in 2016 (95%CI: 43 to 172). Lowering the current threshold from 1.4 to 1.0g and applying it to all bread products would reduce daily salt consumption by 3.6 tonnes per day, saving an estimated 286 lives a year (95%CI 123-454).Conclusions: Salt is an important risk factor in Portugal and bread is a major source. Lowering maximum permissible levels and removing exemptions would save lives. The European Commission should revisit its decision on the basis of this new evidence.

Journal article

Rizmie D, de Preux L, Miraldo M, Atun Ret al., 2022, Impact of extreme temperatures on emergency hospital admissions by age and socio-economic deprivation in England: Evidence from six diseases, Social Science & Medicine, Vol: 308, Pages: 115193-115193, ISSN: 0277-9536

Climate change poses an unprecedented challenge to population health and health systems’ resilience, with increasing fluctuations in extreme temperatures through pressures on hospital capacity. While earlier studies have estimated morbidity attributable to hot or cold weather across cities, we provide the first large-scale, population-wide assessment of extreme temperatures on inequalities in excess emergency hospital admissions in England. We used the universe of emergency hospital admissions between 2001 and 2012 combined with meteorological data to exploit daily variation in temperature experienced by hospitals (N = 29,371,084). We used a distributed lag model with multiple fixed-effects, controlling for seasonal factors, to examine hospitalisation effects across temperature-sensitive diseases, and further heterogeneous impacts across age and deprivation. We identified larger hospitalisation impacts associated with extreme cold temperatures than with extreme hot temperatures. The less extreme temperatures produce admission patterns like their extreme counterparts, but at lower magnitudes. Results also showed an increase in admissions with extreme temperatures that were more prominent among older and socioeconomically-deprived populations - particularly across admissions for metabolic diseases and injuries.

Journal article

DAeth J, Ghosal S, Grimm F, Haw D, Koca E, Lau K, Liu H, Moret S, Rizmie D, Smith P, Forchini G, Miraldo M, Wiesemann Wet al., 2022, Optimal hospital care scheduling during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Management Science, ISSN: 0025-1909

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen dramatic demand surges for hospital care that have placed a severe strain on health systems worldwide. As a result, policy makers are faced with the challenge of managing scarce hospital capacity so as to reduce the backlog of non-COVID patients whilst maintaining the ability to respond to any potential future increases in demand for COVID care. In this paper, we propose a nation-wide prioritization scheme that models each individual patient as a dynamic program whose states encode the patient’s health and treatment condition, whose actions describe the available treatment options, whose transition probabilities characterize the stochastic evolution of the patient’s health and whose rewards encode the contribution to the overall objectives of the health system. The individual patients’ dynamic programs are coupled through constraints on the available resources, such as hospital beds, doctors and nurses. We show that the overall problem can be modeled as a grouped weakly coupled dynamic program for which we determine near-optimal solutions through a fluid approximation. Our case study for the National Health Service in England shows how years of life can be gained by prioritizing specific disease types over COVID patients, such as injury & poisoning, diseases of the respiratory system, diseases of the circulatory system, diseases of the digestive system and cancer.

Journal article

Barrenho E, Halmai R, Miraldo M, Tzintzun I, Ali SR, Toulemon L, Dupont J-CK, Rochaix Let al., 2022, Inequities in cancer drug development in terms of unmet medical need, Social Science and Medicine, Vol: 302, ISSN: 0277-9536

This study measures inequality and inequity in the distribution of clinical trials on cancer drug development between 1996 and 2016, comparing the number of clinical trials with cancer need, proxied by prevalence, incidence, or survival rates for both rare and non-rare cancers. We leverage a unique global database of clinical trials activity and costs between 1996 and 2016, constructed for 227 different cancer types to measure for rare and non-rare cancers: i) inequalities and inequity of clinical trial activity, considering all trials as well as split by R&D stage; ii) inequalities and inequity in R&D investment proxied by trial enrollment and duration; iii) evolution of inequity over time. Inequalities are measured with concentration curves and indices and inequities measured with the health inequity index. We find four important results. First, we show pro-low need inequity across cancer types for both rare and non-rare cancers, for all need proxies. Second, we show inequity differs across R&D stages and between rare and non-rare cancers. The distribution of clinical trials for non-rare cancers disproportionately favors low-need non-rare cancers from earlier to later stages of R&D, whilst for rare cancers this only occurs in Phase 2 trials. Third, inequity analyses in R&D investment show that only trial enrollment for rare cancers and trial duration for non-rare cancers are disproportionately concentrated among low-need cancers. Finally, while pro-low need inequity has persisted between 1996 and 2016 for non-rare cancers, it has faded for rare cancers post-EU orphan drugs’ legislation.

Journal article

Aerts C, Barrenho E, Miraldo M, Sicuri Eet al., 2022, The impact of the priority review voucher on research and development for tropical diseases, Pharmaceutical Medicine, Vol: 36, ISSN: 1178-2595

BackgroundIn 2007, the priority review voucher (PRV) was implemented in the US to incentivize research and development (R&D) for tropical diseases. The PRV is issued by the US FDA and grants a quicker review to manufacturers upon successful development of a product for a disease eligible for the program.ObjectiveThe objective of this analysis was to assess whether the PRV has incentivized R&D (measured as clinical trial activity) for the intended tropical diseases.MethodWe used a difference-in-difference-in-differences (DDD) strategy by exploiting variation in its implementation across diseases and registries around the world. Clinical trials were retrieved from the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform for the years 2005–2019.ResultsWe found a positive, but not statistically significant, effect of the PRV on stimulating R&D activity. Delayed effects of the policy could not be found.ConclusionOur findings, which were robust across a series of robustness tests, suggest that the PRV program is not associated with a trigger in innovation for neglected diseases and therefore should not be considered as a stand-alone solution. It should be supplemented with other government measures to incentivize R&D activity. To increase the value of the program, we recommend that the PRV only be awarded to novel products and not to products that have already been licensed outside the US. Doing so would restrict the number of vouchers awarded and slow down their ongoing market depreciation. Finally, we propose that product sponsors be required to submit an access plan for PRV-awarded products.

Journal article

Kusuma D, Atanasova P, Pineda E, Anjana RM, De Silva L, Hanif AA, Hasan M, Hossain MM, Indrawansa S, Jayamanne D, Jha S, Kasturiratne A, Katulanda P, Khawaja KI, Kumarendran B, Mridha MK, Rajakaruna V, Chambers JC, Frost G, Sassi F, Miraldo Met al., 2022, Food environment and diabetes mellitus in South Asia: A geospatial analysis of health outcome data, PLoS Medicine, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1549-1277

BACKGROUND: The global epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) renders its prevention a major public health priority. A key risk factor of diabetes is obesity and poor diets. Food environments have been found to influence people's diets and obesity, positing they may play a role in the prevalence of diabetes. Yet, there is scant evidence on the role they may play in the context of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We examined the associations of food environments on T2DM among adults and its heterogeneity by income and sex. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We linked individual health outcome data of 12,167 individuals from a network of health surveillance sites (the South Asia Biobank) to the density and proximity of food outlets geolocated around their homes from environment mapping survey data collected between 2018 and 2020 in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Density was defined as share of food outlets within 300 m from study participant's home, and proximity was defined as having at least 1 outlet within 100 m from home. The outcome variables include fasting blood glucose level, high blood glucose, and self-reported diagnosed diabetes. Control variables included demographics, socioeconomic status (SES), health status, healthcare utilization, and physical activities. Data were analyzed in ArcMap 10.3 and STATA 15.1. A higher share of fast-food restaurants (FFR) was associated with a 9.21 mg/dl blood glucose increase (95% CI: 0.17, 18.24; p < 0.05). Having at least 1 FFR in the proximity was associated with 2.14 mg/dl blood glucose increase (CI: 0.55, 3.72; p < 0.01). A 1% increase in the share of FFR near an individual's home was associated with 8% increase in the probability of being clinically diagnosed as a diabetic (average marginal effects (AMEs): 0.08; CI: 0.02, 0.14; p < 0.05). Having at least 1 FFR near home was associated with 16% (odds ratio [OR]: 1.16; CI: 1.01, 1.33; p < 0.05) and 19% (OR: 1.19; CI: 1.03, 1.38; p < 0.05) increases in the odd

Journal article

Galizzi M, Lau K, Miraldo M, Hauck Ket al., 2022, Bandwagoning, free-riding and heterogeneity in influenza vaccine decisions: an online experiment, Health Economics, Vol: 31, Pages: 614-646, ISSN: 1057-9230

‘Nudge’-based social norms messages conveying high population influenza vaccination coverage levels can encourage vaccination due to bandwagoning effects but also discourage vaccination due to free-riding effects on low risk of infection, making their impact on vaccination uptake ambiguous.We develop a theoretical framework to capture heterogeneity around vaccination behaviors, and empirically measure the causal effects of different messages about vaccination coverage rates on four self-reported and behavioral vaccination intention measures. In an online experiment, N = 1,365 UK adults are randomly assigned to one of seven treatment groups with different messages about their social environment’s coverage rate (varied between 10% and 95%), or a control group with no message. We find that treated groups have significantly greater vaccination intention than the control. Treatment effects increase with the coverage rate up to a 75% level, consistent with a bandwagoning effect. For coverage rates above 75%, the treatment effects, albeit still positive, stop increasing and remain flat (or even decline). Our results suggest that, at higher coverage rates, free-riding behavior may partially crowd out bandwagoning effects of coverage rates messages. We also find significant heterogeneity of these effects depending on the invidual perceptions of risks of infection and of the coverage rates.

Journal article

Haw D, Forchini G, Doohan P, Christen P, Pianella M, Johnson R, Bajaj S, Hogan A, Winskill P, Miraldo M, White P, Ghani A, Ferguson N, Smith P, Hauck Ket al., 2022, Optimizing social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using DAEDALUS, Nature Computational Science, Vol: 2, Pages: 223-233, ISSN: 2662-8457

To study the trade-off between economic, social and health outcomes in the management of a pandemic, DAEDALUS integrates a dynamic epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a multi-sector economic model, reflecting sectoral heterogeneity in transmission and complex supply chains. The model identifies mitigation strategies that optimize economic production while constraining infections so that hospital capacity is not exceeded but allowing essential services, including much of the education sector, to remain active. The model differentiates closures by economic sector, keeping those sectors open that contribute little to transmission but much to economic output and those that produce essential services as intermediate or final consumption products. In an illustrative application to 63 sectors in the United Kingdom, the model achieves an economic gain of between £161 billion (24%) and £193 billion (29%) compared to a blanket lockdown of non-essential activities over six months. Although it has been designed for SARS-CoV-2, DAEDALUS is sufficiently flexible to be applicable to pandemics with different epidemiological characteristics.

Journal article

Miraldo M, Atanasova PETYA, Kusuma DIAN, Pineda E, Frost G, Sassi Fet al., 2022, The impact of the consumer and neighbourhood food environment on dietary intake and obesity-related outcomes: A systematic review of causal impact studies., Social Science and Medicine, Vol: 299, Pages: 1-16, ISSN: 0277-9536

BackgroundThe food environment has been found to impact population dietary behaviour. Our study aimed to systematically review the impact of different elements of the food environment on dietary intake and obesity.MethodsWe searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsychInfo, EconLit databases to identify literature that assessed the relationship between the built food environments (intervention) and dietary intake and obesity (outcomes), published between database inception to March 26, 2020. All human studies were eligible except for those on clinical sub-groups. Only studies with causal inference methods were assessed. Studies focusing on the food environment inside homes, workplaces and schools were excluded. A risk of bias assessment was conducted using the CASP appraisal checklist. Findings were summarized using a narrative synthesis approach.Findings58 papers were included, 55 of which were conducted in high-income countries. 70% of papers focused on the consumer food environments and found that in-kind/financial incentives, healthy food saliency, and health primes, but not calorie menu labelling significantly improved dietary quality of children and adults, while BMI results were null. 30% of the papers focused on the neighbourhood food environments and found that the number of and distance to unhealthy food outlets increased the likelihood of fast-food consumption and higher BMI for children of any SES; among adults only selected groups were impacted - females, black, and Hispanics living in low and medium density areas. The availability and distance to healthy food outlets significantly improved children's dietary intake and BMI but null results were found for adults.InterpretationEvidence suggests certain elements of the consumer and neighbourhood food environments could improve populations dietary intake, while effect on BMI was observed among children and selected adult populations. Underprivileged groups are most likely to experience and impact on BMI. Future research

Journal article

Kusuma D, Atanasova P, Anjana RM, De Silva L, Hanif A, Hasan M, Hossain M, Indrawansa S, Jayamanne D, Jha S, Kasturiratne A, Katulanda P, Khawaja KI, Kumarendran B, Mridha MK, Rajakaruna V, Chambers JC, Frost G, Sassi F, Miraldo Met al., 2022, Food environment and diabetes mellitus in South Asia: a geospatial analysis of health outcome data, PLoS Medicine, ISSN: 1549-1277

Background: The global epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) renders its prevention a major public health priority. A key risk factor of diabetes is obesity and poor diets. Food environments have been found to influence people’s diets and obesity positing they may play a role in the prevalence of diabetes. Yet there is scant evidence on the role they may play in the context of low- and middle-income countries. We examined the associations of food environments on T2DM among adults, and its heterogeneity by income and sex. Methods and Findings: We linked individual health outcome data of 12,167 individuals from a network of health surveillance sites (the South Asia Biobank) to the density and proximity of food outlets geolocated around their homes from environment mapping survey data collected between 2018-2020 in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Density was defined as share of food outlets within 300m from study participant’s home: proximity was defined as having at least one outlet within 100m from home. The outcome variables include fasting blood glucose level, high blood glucose, and self-reported diagnosed diabetes. Control variables included demographics, socio-economic status, health status, healthcare utilization, and physical activities. Data were analysed in ArcMap 10.3 and STATA 15.1. A higher share of fast food restaurants (FFR) was associated with a 9.21 mg/dl blood glucose increase (95% CI: 0.17, 18.24; p <0.05). Having at least one FFR in the proximity was associated with 2.14 mg/dl blood glucose increase (CI: 0.55, 3.72; p <0.01). A one percent increase in the share of FFR near an individual’s home was associated with 8% increase in the probability of being clinically diagnosed as a diabetic (average marginal effects (AME): 0.08; CI: 0.02, 0.14; p<0.05. Having at least one FFR near home was associated with 16% (OR: 1.16; CI: 1.01, 1.33; p<0.05) and 19% (OR: 1.19; CI: 1.03, 1.38; p<0.05) increases in the odds of higher bl

Journal article

Atanasova P, Kusuma D, Pineda E, Anjana RM, De Silva L, Hanif AAM, Hasan M, Hossain MM, Indrawansa S, Jayamanne D, Jha S, Kasturiratne A, Katulanda P, Khawaja KI, Kumarendran B, Mrida MK, Rajakaruna V, Chambers JC, Frost G, Sassi F, Miraldo Met al., 2022, Food environments and obesity: a geospatial analysis of the South Asia Biobank, income and sex inequalities., SSM - Population Health, Vol: 17, Pages: 101055-101055, ISSN: 2352-8273

Introduction: In low-middle income countries (LMICs) the role of food environments on obesity has been understudied. We address this gap by 1) examining the effect of food environments on adults' body size (BMI, waist circumference) and obesity; 2) measuring the heterogeneity of such effects by income and sex. Methods: This cross-sectional study analysed South Asia Biobank surveillance and environment mapping data for 12,167 adults collected between 2018 and 2020 from 33 surveillance sites in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Individual-level data (demographic, socio-economic, and health characteristics) were combined with exposure to healthy and unhealthy food environments measured with geolocations of food outlets (obtained through ground-truth surveys) within 300 m buffer zones around participants' homes. Multivariate regression models were used to assess association of exposure to healthy and unhealthy food environments on waist circumference, BMI, and probability of obesity for the total sample and stratified by sex and income. Findings: The presence of a higher share of supermarkets in the neighbourhood was associated with a reduction in body size (BMI, β = - 3∙23; p < 0∙0001, and waist circumference, β = -5∙99; p = 0∙0212) and obesity (Average Marginal Effect (AME): -0∙18; p = 0∙0009). High share of fast-food restaurants in the neighbourhood was not significantly associated with body size, but it significantly increased the probability of obesity measured by BMI (AME: 0∙09; p = 0∙0234) and waist circumference (AME: 0∙21; p = 0∙0021). These effects were stronger among females and low-income individuals. Interpretation: The results suggest the availability of fast-food outlets influences obesity, especially among female and lower-income groups. The availability of supermarkets is associated with reduced body size and obesity, but their effects do not outweigh the role of fast-food o

Journal article

Downey LE, Harris M, Jan S, Miraldo M, Peiris D, Buse Ket al., 2021, Global health system resilience is in everyone's interest., BMJ, Vol: 375, Pages: 1-2, ISSN: 1759-2151

Journal article

Shaikh M, Tymoszuk U, Williamon A, Miraldo Met al., 2021, Socioeconomic inequalities in arts engagement and depression among older adults in the United Kingdom: Evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Public Health, Vol: 198, Pages: 307-314, ISSN: 0033-3506

ObjectivesArts engagement has been positively linked with mental health and wellbeing; however, socioeconomic inequalities may be prevalent in access to and uptake of arts engagement reflecting on inequalities in mental health. This study estimated socioeconomic inequality and horizontal inequity (unfair inequality) in arts engagement and depression symptoms of older adults in England. Trends in inequality and inequity were measured over a period of ten years.Study DesignRepeated cross-sectional studyMethodsIn this analysis we used data from six waves (waves 2 to 7) of the nationally representative English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. We estimated socioeconomic inequality using concentration curves that plot the distribution of arts engagement and depression symptoms against the distribution of wealth. Concentration index was used to measure the magnitude of the inequality. Unfair inequality was then calculated for need-standardised arts engagement using a horizontal inequity index (HII).ResultsThe study sample included adults aged 50 and older from waves 2 (2004/2005, n=6,620) to 7 (2014/2015, n=3,329). Engagement with cinema, galleries, and theatre was pro-rich unequal i.e. concentrated among the wealthier, but inequality in depression was pro-poor unequal i.e. concentrated more among the less wealthy. While pro-rich inequality in arts engagement decreased from wave 2 (conc. index: 0·291, 95% CI 0·27 to 0·31) to wave 7 (conc. index: 0·275, 95% CI 0·24 to 0·30), pro-poor inequality in depression increased from wave 2 (conc. index: -0·164, 95% CI -0·18 to -0·14) to wave 7 (conc. index: -0·189, 95% CI -0·21 to -0·16). Depression-standardised arts engagement showed horizontal inequity that increased from wave 2 (HII: 0·455, 95% CI 0·42 to 0·48) to wave 7 (HII: 0·464, 95% CI 0·42 to 0·50).ConclusionsOur findings suggest that while socioeconomic

Journal article

DAeth J, Ghosal S, Grimm F, Haw D, Koca E, Lau K, Moret S, Rizmie D, Deeny S, Perez-Guzman P, Ferguson N, Hauck K, Smith P, Forchini G, Wiesemann W, Miraldo Met al., 2021, Optimal national prioritization policies for hospital care during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Nature Computational Science, Vol: 1, Pages: 521-531, ISSN: 2662-8457

In response to unprecedent surges in the demand for hospital care during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, health systems have prioritized COVID patients to life-saving hospital care to the detriment of other patients. In contrast to these ad hoc policies, we develop a linear programming framework to optimally schedule elective procedures and allocate hospital beds among all planned and emergency patients to minimize years of life lost. Leveraging a large dataset of administrative patient medical records, we apply our framework to the National Health System in England and show that an extra 50,750-5,891,608 years of life can be gained in comparison to prioritization policies that reflect those implemented during the pandemic. Significant health gains are observed for neoplasms, diseases of the digestive system, and injuries & poisoning. Our open-source framework provides a computationally efficient approximation of a large-scale discrete optimization problem that can be applied globally to support national-level care prioritization policies.

Journal article

Ohrnberger J, Segal A, Forchini G, Miraldo M, Skarp J, Nedjati-Gilani G, Laydon D, Ghani A, Ferguson N, Hauck Ket al., 2021, The impact of a COVID-19 lockdown on work productivity under good and poor compliance, European Journal of Public Health, Vol: 31, Pages: 1009-1015, ISSN: 1101-1262

BackgroundIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments across the globe have imposed strict social distancing measures. Public compliance to such measures is essential for their success yet the economic consequences of compliance are unknown. This is the first study to analyse the effects of good compliance compared to poor compliance to a COVID-19 suppression strategy (i.e. lockdown) on work productivity. MethodsWe estimate the differences in work productivity comparing a scenario of good compliance with one of poor compliance to the UK government COVID-19 suppression strategy. We use projections of the impact of the UK suppression strategy on mortality and morbidity from an individual-based epidemiological model combined with an economic model representative of the labour force in Wales and England. ResultsWe find that productivity effects of good compliance significantly exceed those of poor compliance and increase with the duration of the lockdown. After three months of the lockdown, work productivity in good compliance is £398.58 million higher compared with that of poor compliance. 75% of the differences is explained by productivity effects due to morbidity and non-health reasons and 25% attributed to avoided losses due to pre-mature mortality.ConclusionGood compliance to social distancing measures exceeds positive economic effects, in addition to health benefits. This is an important finding for current economic and health policy. It highlights the importance to set clear guidelines for the public, to build trust and support for the rules and if necessary, to enforce good compliance to social distancing measures.

Journal article

Simmons B, Ariyoshi K, Ohmagari N, Pulcini C, Huttner B, Gandra S, Satta G, Moja L, Sharland M, Magrini N, Miraldo M, Cooke Get al., 2021, Progress towards antibiotic use targets in eight high-income countries, Bulletin of the World Health Organization, Vol: 99, Pages: 550-561, ISSN: 0042-9686

Objective To compare antibiotic sales in eight high-income countries using the 2019 World Health Organization (WHO) Access, Watch andReserve (AWaRe) classification and the target of 60% consumption of Access category antibiotics.Methods We analysed data from a commercial database of sales of systemic antibiotics in France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Switzerland,United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and United States of America over the years 2013–2018. We classified antibioticsaccording to the 2019 AWaRe categories: Access, Watch, Reserve and Not Recommended. We measured antibiotic sales per capita in standardunits (SU) per capita and calculated Access group sales as a percentage of total antibiotic sales.Findings In 2018, per capita antibiotic sales ranged from 7.4 SU (Switzerland) to 20.0 SU (France); median sales of Access group antibioticswere 10.9 SU per capita (range: 3.5–15.0). Per capita sales declined moderately over 2013–2018. The median percentage of Access groupantibiotics was 68% (range: 22–77 %); the Access group proportion increased in most countries between 2013 and 2018. Five countriesexceeded the 60% target; two countries narrowly missed it (>55% in Germany and Italy). Sales of Access antibiotics in Japan were low(22%), driven by relatively high sales of oral cephalosporins and macrolides.Conclusion We have identified changes to prescribing that could allow countries to achieve the WHO target. The 60% Access group targetprovides a framework to inform national antibiotic policies and could be complemented by absolute measures and more ambitious valuesin specific settings.

Journal article

Song P, Gupta A, Goon IY, Hasan M, Mahmood S, Pradeepa R, Siddiqui S, Frost GS, Kusuma D, Miraldo M, Sassi F, Wareham NJ, Ahmed S, Anjana RM, Brage S, Forouhi NG, Jha S, Kasturiratne A, Katulanda P, Khawaja KI, Loh M, Mridha MK, Wickremasinghe AR, Kooner JS, Chambers JCet al., 2021, Data resource profile: Understanding the patterns and determinants of health in South Asians—the South Asia Biobank, International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 50, Pages: 717-718e, ISSN: 0300-5771

Journal article

Christen P, D'Aeth J, Lochen A, McCabe R, Rizmie D, Schmit N, Nayagam S, Miraldo M, Aylin P, Bottle A, Perez Guzman P, Donnelly C, Ghani A, Ferguson N, White P, Hauck Ket al., 2021, The J-IDEA pandemic planner: a framework for implementing hospital provision interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic, Medical Care, Vol: 59, Pages: 371-378, ISSN: 0025-7079

Background : Planning for extreme surges in demand for hospital care of patientsrequiring urgent life-saving treatment for COVID-19, whilst retaining capacity for otheremergency conditions, is one of the most challenging tasks faced by healthcareproviders and policymakers during the pandemic. Health systems must be wellpreparedto cope with large and sudden changes in demand by implementinginterventions to ensure adequate access to care. We developed the first planning toolfor the COVID-19 pandemic to account for how hospital provision interventions (suchas cancelling elective surgery, setting up field hospitals, or hiring retired staff) will affectthe capacity of hospitals to provide life-saving care.Methods : We conducted a review of interventions implemented or considered in 12 European countries in March-April 2020, an evaluation of their impact on capacity, anda review of key parameters in the care of COVID-19 patients. This information wasused to develop a planner capable of estimating the impact of specific interventions ondoctors, nurses, beds and respiratory support equipment. We applied this to ascenario-based case study of one intervention, the set-up of field hospitals in England,under varying levels of COVID-19 patients.Results : The J-IDEA pandemic planner is a hospital planning tool that allows hospitaladministrators, policymakers and other decision-makers to calculate the amount ofcapacity in terms of beds, staff and crucial medical equipment obtained byimplementing the interventions. Flexible assumptions on baseline capacity, the numberof hospitalisations, staff-to-beds ratios, and staff absences due to COVID-19 make theplanner adaptable to multiple settings. The results of the case study show that whilefield hospitals alleviate the burden on the number of beds available, this intervention isfutile unless the deficit of critical care nurses is addressed first.Discussion : The tool supports decision-makers in delivering a fast and effectiveresponse to

Journal article

Lau K, Dorigatti I, Miraldo M, Hauck Ket al., 2021, SARIMA-modelled greater severity and mortality during the 2010/11 post-pandemic influenza season compared to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in English hospitals, International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol: 105, Pages: 161-171, ISSN: 1201-9712

ObjectiveThe COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates the need for understanding pathways to healthcare demand, morbidity, and mortality of pandemic patients. We estimate H1N1 (1) hospitalization rates, (2) severity rates (length of stay, ventilation, pneumonia, and death) of those hospitalized, (3) mortality rates, and (4) time lags between infections and hospitalizations during the pandemic (June 2009 to March 2010) and post-pandemic influenza season (November 2010 to February 2011) in England.MethodsEstimates of H1N1 infections from a dynamic transmission model are combined with hospitalizations and severity using time series econometric analyses of administrative patient-level hospital data.ResultsHospitalization rates were 34% higher and severity rates of those hospitalized were 20%–90% higher in the post-pandemic period than the pandemic. Adults (45–64-years-old) had the highest ventilation and pneumonia hospitalization rates. Hospitalizations did not lag infection during the pandemic for the young (<24-years-old) but lagged by one or more weeks for all ages in the post-pandemic period.DiscussionThe post-pandemic flu season exhibited heightened H1N1 severity, long after the pandemic was declared over. Policymakers should remain vigilant even after pandemics seem to have subsided. Analysis of administrative hospital data and epidemiological modelling estimates can provide valuable insights to inform responses to COVID-19 and future influenza and other disease pandemics.

Journal article

Singh S, Shaikh M, Hauck K, Miraldo Met al., 2021, Impacts of introducing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 daily growth rate and compliance in the United States, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, Vol: 118, ISSN: 0027-8424

We evaluate the impacts of implementing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in US counties on the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases and compliance, measured through the percentage of devices staying home, and evaluate whether introducing and lifting NPIs protecting selective populations is an effective strategy. We use difference-in-differences methods, leveraging on daily county-level data and exploit the staggered introduction and lifting of policies across counties over time. We also assess heterogenous impacts due to counties’ population characteristics, namely ethnicity and household income. Results show that introducing NPIs led to a reduction in cases through the percentage of devices staying home. When counties lifted NPIs, they benefited from reduced mobility outside of the home during the lockdown, but only for a short period. In the long term, counties experienced diminished health and mobility gains accrued from previously implemented policies. Notably, we find heterogenous impacts due to population characteristics implying that measures can mitigate the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 on marginalized populations and find that selectively targeting populations may not be effective.

Journal article

Barrenho E, Miraldo M, Propper C, Walsh Bet al., 2021, The importance of surgeons and their peers in adoption and diffusion of innovation: an observational study of laparoscopic colectomy adoption and diffusion in England, Social Science and Medicine, Vol: 272, ISSN: 0277-9536

Little is known about the role of clinicians in accounting for adoption and diffusion of medical innovations, especially within the English National Health System. This study examines the importance of surgical consultants and their work-based networks on the diffusion of an important innovation, minimally invasive elective laparoscopic colectomy for colorectal cancer. The study used linked patient-level and workforce data on 260,110 elective colectomies and 1288 consultants between 2000 and 2014, to examine adoption of laparoscopic colectomy pre- and post-introduction of clinical guidelines and total share of colectomies performed laparoscopically by adopters. Laparoscopy as a share of elective colectomy increased from 0% in 2000 to 53% in 2014. Surgeons, rather than hospitals, were the principal agents accounting for the increase and explain 46.6% of the variance in laparoscopic colectomy use. Female surgeons, surgeons trained outside the United Kingdom, and recent graduates had higher rates of laparoscopy adoption. More experienced surgeons and surgeons with more peers who perform laparoscopy were more likely to adopt, adopt early and have greater use of laparoscopy. Targeting clinicians, rather than hospitals, is central to increasing adoption and diffusion of new medical technologies.

Journal article

De Backer C, Teunissen L, Cuykx I, Decorte P, Pabian S, Gerritsen S, Matthys C, Al Sabbah H, Van Royen Ket al., 2021, An evaluation of the COVID-19 pandemic and perceived social distancing policies in relation to planning, selecting, and preparing healthy meals: an observational study in 38 countries worldwide, Frontiers in Nutrition, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2296-861X

Objectives: To examine changes in planning, selecting, and preparing healthy foods in relation to personal factors (time, money, stress) and social distancing policies during the COVID-19 crisis.Methods: Using cross-sectional online surveys collected in 38 countries worldwide in April-June 2020 (N = 37,207, Mage 36.7 SD 14.8, 77% women), we compared changes in food literacy behaviors to changes in personal factors and social distancing policies, using hierarchical multiple regression analyses controlling for sociodemographic variables.Results: Increases in planning (4.7 SD 1.3, 4.9 SD 1.3), selecting (3.6 SD 1.7, 3.7 SD 1.7), and preparing (4.6 SD 1.2, 4.7 SD 1.3) healthy foods were found for women and men, and positively related to perceived time availability and stay-at-home policies. Psychological distress was a barrier for women, and an enabler for men. Financial stress was a barrier and enabler depending on various sociodemographic variables (all p < 0.01).Conclusion: Stay-at-home policies and feelings of having more time during COVID-19 seem to have improved food literacy. Stress and other social distancing policies relate to food literacy in more complex ways, highlighting the necessity of a health equity lens.

Journal article

D'Aeth J, Ghosal S, Grimm F, Haw D, Koca E, Lau K, Moret S, Rizmie D, Deeny S, Perez Guzman P, Ferguson N, Hauck K, Smith P, Wiesemann W, Forchini G, Miraldo Met al., 2020, Report 40: Optimal scheduling rules for elective care to minimize years of life lost during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an application to England

SummaryCountries have deployed a wide range of policies to prioritize patients to hospital care to address unprecedent surges in demand during the course of the pandemic. Those policies included postponing planned hospital care for non-emergency cases and rationing critical care.We develop a model to optimally schedule elective hospitalizations and allocate hospital general and critical care beds to planned and emergency patients in England during the pandemic. We apply the model to NHS England data and show that optimized scheduling leads to lower years of life lost and costs than policies that reflect those implemented in England during the pandemic. Overall across all disease areas the model enables an extra 50,750 - 5,891,608 years of life gained when compared to standard policies, depending on the scenarios. Especially large gains in years of life are seen for neoplasms, diseases of the digestive system, and injuries & poisoning.

Report

Haw D, Forchini G, Christen P, Bajaj S, Hogan A, Winskill P, Miraldo M, White P, Ghani A, Ferguson N, Smith P, Hauck Ket al., 2020, Report 35: How can we keep schools and universities open? Differentiating closures by economic sector to optimize social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission

There is a trade-off between the education sector and other economic sectors in the control of SARS-Cov-2 transmission. Here we integrate a dynamic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a 63-sector economic model reflecting sectoral heterogeneity in transmission and economic interdependence between sectors. We identify COVID-19 control strategies which optimize economic production while keeping schools and universities operational and constraining infections such that emergency hospital capacity is not exceeded. The model estimates an economic gain of between £163bn and £205bn for the United Kingdom compared to a blanket lockdown of non-essential activity over six months, depending on hospital capacity. Sectors identified as potential priorities for closure are contact-intensive and/or less economically productive.

Report

McCabe R, Schmit N, Christen P, D'Aeth J, Løchen A, Rizmie D, Nayagam AS, Miraldo M, Aylin P, Bottle R, Perez-Guzman PN, Ghani A, Ferguson N, White P, Hauck Ket al., 2020, Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic, BMC Medicine, Vol: 18, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 1741-7015

BackgroundTo calculate hospital surge capacity, achieved via hospital provision interventions implemented for the emergency treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other patients through March to May 2020; to evaluate the conditions for admitting patients for elective surgery under varying admission levels of COVID-19 patients.MethodsWe analysed National Health Service (NHS) datasets and literature reviews to estimate hospital care capacity before the pandemic (pre-pandemic baseline) and to quantify the impact of interventions (cancellation of elective surgery, field hospitals, use of private hospitals, deployment of former medical staff and deployment of newly qualified medical staff) for treatment of adult COVID-19 patients, focusing on general and acute (G&A) and critical care (CC) beds, staff and ventilators.ResultsNHS England would not have had sufficient capacity to treat all COVID-19 and other patients in March and April 2020 without the hospital provision interventions, which alleviated significant shortfalls in CC nurses, CC and G&A beds and CC junior doctors. All elective surgery can be conducted at normal pre-pandemic levels provided the other interventions are sustained, but only if the daily number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 1550 in the whole of England. If the other interventions are not maintained, then elective surgery can only be conducted if the number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 320. However, there is greater national capacity to treat G&A patients: without interventions, it takes almost 10,000 G&A COVID-19 patients before any G&A elective patients would be unable to be accommodated.ConclusionsUnless COVID-19 hospitalisations drop to low levels, there is a continued need to enhance critical care capacity in England with field hospitals, use of private hospitals or deployment of former and newly qualified medical staff to allow some or all elective surge

Journal article

Hansen C, Miraldo M, Hauck K, Ohrnberger Jet al., 2020, Is the road to good health paved in gold? HIV and mining in Sub-Saharan Africa, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, Pages: V837-V837, ISSN: 1101-1262

Conference paper

Hauck K, Miraldo M, Singh S, 2020, Integrating motherhood and employment: a 22-year analysis investigatingimpacts of US workplace breastfeeding policy, Social Science and Medicine – Population Health, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2352-8273

The United States has one of the lowest exclusive breastfeeding rates among high-income countries. Most experts agree that there is a lack of mother-friendly workplace policies compared to other countries. Since 1995, 25 states have implemented workplace breastfeeding legislation allowing mothers to express and store breast milk in the workplace. There is heterogeneity in policy enforceability where 17 states have weak enforceability while eight states have strict enforceability and require employers to offer provisions to breastfeed at the workplace. Using difference-in-differences methods, we examine the impact of this policy on state-level breastfeeding rates and assess how that impact differs with policy enforceability. We use data from the Centers for Disease Control on breastfeeding, supplementing with socio-economic data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Current Population Survey, the US Census Bureau and several other datasets over 22 years from 1990 to 2011. We find that states with legislation experienced a 2.3-percentage point increase in breastfeeding rates compared to states without legislation while states with weak enforceability experienced a 3.1-percentage point increase compared to states without legislation. We also find that policies do not start to have an impact until 1–2 years after they were signed into law. Considering the recent assault on breastfeeding from the current administration, our study is a timely and important contribution that strengthens the evidence base for the health benefits of workplace breastfeeding policies.

Journal article

Aurino E, Olney J, Miraldo M, Watson Ket al., 2020, Chronic Syndemic meets Viral pandemic, Publisher: BMJ Opinion

Working paper

McCabe R, Schmit N, Christen P, D'Aeth J, Lochen A, Rizmie D, Nayagam AS, Miraldo M, Aylin P, Bottle R, Perez Guzman PN, Ghani A, Ferguson N, White PJ, Hauck Ket al., 2020, Report 27 Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic

To meet the growing demand for hospital care due to the COVID-19 pandemic, England implemented a range of hospital provision interventions including the procurement of equipment, the establishment of additional hospital facilities and the redeployment of staff and other resources. Additionally, to further release capacity across England’s National Health Service (NHS), elective surgery was cancelled in March 2020, leading to a backlog of patients requiring care. This created a pressure on the NHS to reintroduce elective procedures, which urgently needs to be addressed. Population-level measures implemented in March and April 2020 reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2, prompting a gradual decline in the demand for hospital care by COVID-19 patients after the peak in mid-April. Planning capacity to bring back routine procedures for non-COVID-19 patients whilst maintaining the ability to respond to any potential future increases in demand for COVID-19 care is the challenge currently faced by healthcare planners.In this report, we aim to calculate hospital capacity for emergency treatment of COVID-19 and other patients during the pandemic surge in April and May 2020; to evaluate the increase in capacity achieved via five interventions (cancellation of elective surgery, field hospitals, use of private hospitals, and deployment of former and newly qualified medical staff); and to determine how to re-introduce elective surgery considering continued demand from COVID-19 patients. We do this by modelling the supply of acute NHS hospital care, considering different capacity scenarios, namely capacity before the pandemic (baseline scenario) and after the implementation of capacity expansion interventions that impact available general and acute (G&A) and critical care (CC) beds, staff and ventilators. Demand for hospital care is accounted for in terms of non-COVID-19 and COVID-19 patients. Our results suggest that NHS England would not have had sufficient daily capacity

Report

Christen P, D'Aeth J, Lochen A, McCabe R, Rizmie D, Schmit N, Nayagam AS, Miraldo M, White P, Aylin P, Bottle R, Perez Guzman PN, Donnelly C, Ghani A, Ferguson N, Hauck Ket al., 2020, Report 15: Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic

Planning for extreme surges in demand for hospital care of patients requiring urgent life-saving treatment for COVID-19, and other conditions, is one of the most challenging tasks facing healthcare commissioners and care providers during the pandemic. Due to uncertainty in expected patient numbers requiring care, as well as evolving needs day by day, planning hospital capacity is challenging. Health systems that are well prepared for the pandemic can better cope with large and sudden changes in demand by implementing strategies to ensure adequate access to care. Thereby the burden of the pandemic can be mitigated, and many lives saved. This report presents the J-IDEA pandemic planner, a hospital planning tool to calculate how much capacity in terms of beds, staff and ventilators is obtained by implementing healthcare provision interventions affecting the management of patient care in hospitals. We show how to assess baseline capacity, and then calculate how much capacity is gained by various healthcare interventions using impact estimates that are generated as part of this study. Interventions are informed by a rapid review of policy decisions implemented or being considered in 12 European countries over the past few months , an evaluation of the impact of the interventions on capacity using a variety of research methods, and by a review of key parameters in the care of COVID-19 patients.The J-IDEA planner is publicly available, interactive and adaptable to different and changing circumstances and newly emerging evidence. The planner estimates the additional number of beds, medical staff and crucial medical equipment obtained under various healthcare interventions using flexible inputs on assumptions of existing capacities, the number of hospitalisations, beds-to-staff ratios, and staff absences due to COVID-19. A detailed user guide accompanies the planner. The planner was developed rapidly and has limitations which we will address in future iterations. It support

Report

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