I work on modelling the HIV epidemic in different settings and amongst different risk populations. My main interest is in interventions which can be used to control or eliminate HIV, both biomedical interventions such as treatment-as-prevention and behavioural interventions such as community mobilization, and factors which can alter their effectiveness.
I have been responsible for the impact evaluation of the Avahan India AIDS Initiative established by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. This is a large-scale targeted HIV intervention promoting condom use and providing STI services as well as structural intervention and community mobilization to around 300,000 highest-risk individuals including female sex workers and men who have sex with men. Using a combination of data and mathematical modelling I determined whether Avahan had any effect on the HIV intervention there, and estimated the infections averted, and future trends in the HIV epidemic in conjunction with Marie-Claude Boily at Imperial and Peter Vickerman at LSHTM. Results from this model were also used to produce cost-effectiveness estimates for Avahan in combination with economists at LSHTM.
I have also worked modelling HIV in Tanzania to help in designing a large-scale HIV trial, and the effect of violence, community empowerment and work environment for female sex workers on increasing their risk of HIV infection.
At present I work with Christophe Fraser and Anne Cori to develop a large-scale individual-based model of HIV transmission for the HPTN-071 PopART trial in Zambia and South Africa.
In my previous job I helped set up the African Insitute for Mathematical Sciences in South Africa.
et al., 2020, Prevalence and patterns of gender-based violence across adolescent girls and young women in Mombasa, Kenya, Bmc Women's Health, Vol:20, ISSN:1472-6874
et al., 2020, Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, TB and malaria in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study, The Lancet Global Health, Vol:8, ISSN:2214-109X, Pages:e1132-e1141
et al., 2020, Complexities to consider when communicating risk of COVID-19, Public Health, Vol:186, ISSN:0033-3506, Pages:283-285
et al., 2020, HIV prevalence, testing and treatment among men who have sex with men through engagement in virtual sexual networks in Kenya: a cross-sectional bio-behavioural study, Journal of the International Aids Society, Vol:23, ISSN:1758-2652