I study the dynamics of infectious diseases through the analysis of a range of data using statistical and mathematical models. I am interested in understanding and identifying the mechanisms that explain the observed incidence patterns of diseases, and the impact on these of control strategies such as vaccination.
As many of my colleagues, I am currently working on COVID-19 response. However, most of my recent work has centred on the epidemiology of enteroviruses, which are a major cause of neurological and other illnesses. I currently hold a Wellcome Trust/Royal Society Sir Henry Dale Fellowship to study the emergence and spatio-temporal patterns of spread of these viruses. Through the analysis of epidemiological, serological and virus sequence data, my work aims to disentangle the role of population immunity and viral genotypic and phenotypic changes (such as increased transmission or pathogenicity) on the epidemiological dynamics of a subset of serotypes, including enterovirus D68 and those causing hand foot and mouth disease. Answering these basic questions is key to optimise interventions to mitigate the morbidity associated to these infections. Previously, I studied the temporal drivers of enterovirus outbreaks supported by a Sir Henry Wellcome Fellowship (2015-2019). Through this work, we showed that the seasonality of enterovirus circulation is likely to be explained by climatic factors, and that the complex long-term epidemic patterns of individual enterovirus serotypes is driven by acquired serotype-specific immunity.
Prior to that, I was a postdoc in the Vaccine Epidemiology Research Group, where I worked on polio eradication. During this time, my research focused on studying the emergence and spread of vaccine-derived polioviruses to inform decisions by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative on the global withdrawal of the oral poliovirus vaccine.
et al., 2022, Reassessing reported deaths and estimated infection attack rate during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 epidemic, Delhi, India., Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol:28, ISSN:1080-6040
et al., 2021, Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data
et al., 2021, Reconstructing the COVID-19 epidemic in Delhi, India: infection attack rate and reporting of deaths
et al., 2021, Epidemiological dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the United States and implications for acute flaccid myelitis, Science Translational Medicine, Vol:13, ISSN:1946-6234
et al., 2021, Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission, Nature Communications, Vol:12, ISSN:2041-1723