Imperial College London
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Dr Margarita Pons-Salort

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Sir Henry Dale Fellow (ARF)
 
 
 
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Contact

 

m.pons-salort Website

 
 
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Location

 

Sir Michael Uren HubWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Pons-Salort:2022:10.3201/eid2804.210879,
author = {Pons-Salort, M and John, J and Watson, OJ and Brazeau, NF and Verity, R and Kang, G and Grassly, NC},
doi = {10.3201/eid2804.210879},
journal = {Emerging Infectious Diseases},
title = {Reassessing reported deaths and estimated infection attack rate during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 epidemic, Delhi, India.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2804.210879},
volume = {28},
year = {2022}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - India reported >10 million coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To reassess reported deaths and estimate incidence rates during the first 6 months of the epidemic, we used a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission model fit to data from 3 serosurveys in Delhi and time-series documentation of reported deaths. We estimated 48.7% (95% credible interval 22.1%-76.8%) cumulative infection in the population through the end of September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries, we estimated that just 15.0% (95% credible interval 9.3%-34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths had been reported, indicating either substantial underreporting or lower age-specific infection-fatality ratios in India than in high-income countries. Despite the estimated high attack rate, additional epidemic waves occurred in late 2020 and April-May 2021. Future dynamics will depend on the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity and their effectiveness against new variants.
AU  - Pons-Salort,M
AU  - John,J
AU  - Watson,OJ
AU  - Brazeau,NF
AU  - Verity,R
AU  - Kang,G
AU  - Grassly,NC
DO  - 10.3201/eid2804.210879
PY  - 2022///
SN  - 1080-6040
TI  - Reassessing reported deaths and estimated infection attack rate during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 epidemic, Delhi, India.
T2  - Emerging Infectious Diseases
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2804.210879
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35213800
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/95520
VL  - 28
ER  -
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