Imperial College London
Alternate

ProfessorMarkThursz

Faculty of Medicine, Department of Metabolism, Digestion and Reproduction

Professor of Hepatology. Head of Department
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 3312 1903m.thursz

 
 
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Assistant

 

Ms Dawn Campbell +44 (0)20 3312 6454

 
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Location

 

Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Nayagam:2021:cid/ciaa134,
author = {Nayagam, AS and Chan, P and Zhao, K and Sicuri, E and Wang, X and Jia, J and Wei, L and Walsh, N and Rodewald, LE and Zhang, G and Ailing, W and Zhang, L and Chang, J and Hou, C and Qiu, Y and Sui, B and Xiao, Y and Zhuang, H and Thursz, M and Scano, F and Low-Beer, D and Schwartländer, B and Wang, Y and Hallett, TB},
doi = {cid/ciaa134},
journal = {Clinical Infectious Diseases},
pages = {743--752},
title = {Investment case for a comprehensive package of interventions against Hepatitis B in China; applied modelling to help national strategy planning},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa134},
volume = {72},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background:In2016,the first globalviralhepatitiselimination targetswere endorsed. Anestimated one-third of the world’schronic HBV infected population live in China and liver cancer is the sixth leading cause of mortality, but coverage of first line antiviral treatment was low. In 2015, China was one of the first countriesto initiate a consultative process for a renewed approach to viral hepatitis. We present the investment case for the scale-up of a comprehensive package of HBV interventions. Methods:Adynamic simulation modelof HBV was developedand used to simulate the Chinese  HBV  epidemic. We  evaluated  the  impact,  costs  and  return  on  investment  of  a comprehensive package of prevention and treatment interventions from a societal perspective, incorporating costs of management of end-stage liver disease and lost productivity costs. Results:Despitethe successes of historical vaccination scale-up since 1992, there will be a projected 60millionpeople still living with HBV in 2030 and 10 million HBV-related deaths, including 5.7millionHBV-related cancer deaths between 2015-2030. This could be reduced by 2.1million by highly active case-finding and optimal antiviral treatment regimens. The package of interventions is likely to have a positive return-on-investment to society, of 1.57US$ per US$ invested. Conclusions:Increases in HBV-related deaths for the next few decades pose a major public health threatin China. Active case-finding and access to optimal antiviral treatment is requiredto mitigate this risk. This investment case approachprovides a real-world example of howapplied modellingcansupportnational dialogue and inform policy planning.
AU  - Nayagam,AS
AU  - Chan,P
AU  - Zhao,K
AU  - Sicuri,E
AU  - Wang,X
AU  - Jia,J
AU  - Wei,L
AU  - Walsh,N
AU  - Rodewald,LE
AU  - Zhang,G
AU  - Ailing,W
AU  - Zhang,L
AU  - Chang,J
AU  - Hou,C
AU  - Qiu,Y
AU  - Sui,B
AU  - Xiao,Y
AU  - Zhuang,H
AU  - Thursz,M
AU  - Scano,F
AU  - Low-Beer,D
AU  - Schwartländer,B
AU  - Wang,Y
AU  - Hallett,TB
DO  - cid/ciaa134
EP  - 752
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 1058-4838
SP  - 743
TI  - Investment case for a comprehensive package of interventions against Hepatitis B in China; applied modelling to help national strategy planning
T2  - Clinical Infectious Diseases
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa134
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/76758
VL  - 72
ER  -
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