Imperial College London
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Professor Mireille B Toledano

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Mohn Chair; Population Child Health & Director-Mohn Centre
 
 
 
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Contact

 

m.toledano Website

 
 
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Location

 

525Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Williams:2018:10.3310/phr06070,
author = {Williams, ML and Beevers, S and Kitwiroon, N and Dajnak, D and Walton, H and Lott, MC and Pye, S and Fecht, D and Toledano, MB and Holland, M},
doi = {10.3310/phr06070},
journal = {Public Health Research},
pages = {1--124},
title = {Public health air pollution impacts of pathway options to meet the 2050 UK Climate Change Act target: a modelling study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3310/phr06070},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundThe UK’s Climate Change Act 2008 (CCA; Great Britain. Climate Change Act 2008. Chapter 27. London: The Stationery Office; 2008) requires a reduction of 80% in carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions by 2050 on a 1990 base. This project quantified the impact of air pollution on health from four scenarios involving particulate matter of ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3). Two scenarios met the CCA target: one with limited nuclear power build (nuclear replacement option; NRPO) and one with no policy constraint on nuclear (low greenhouse gas). Another scenario envisaged no further climate actions beyond those already agreed (‘baseline’) and the fourth kept 2011 concentrations constant to 2050 (‘2011’).MethodsThe UK Integrated MARKAL–EFOM System (UKTM) energy system model was used to develop the scenarios and produce projections of fuel use; these were used to produce air pollutant emission inventories for Great Britain (GB) for each scenario. The inventories were then used to run the Community Multiscale Air Quality model ‘air pollution model’ to generate air pollutant concentration maps across GB, which then, combined with relationships between concentrations and health outcomes, were used to calculate the impact on health from the air pollution emitted in each scenario. This is a significant improvement on previous health impact studies of climate policies, which have relied on emissions changes. Inequalities in exposure in different socioeconomic groups were also calculated, as was the economic impact of the pollution emissions.ResultsConcentrations of NO2 declined significantly because of a high degree of electrification of the GB road transport fleet, although the NRPO scenario shows large increases in oxides of nitrogen emissions from combined heat and power (CHP) sources. Concentrations of PM2.5 show a modest decrease by 2050, which would have been larger if it had n
AU  - Williams,ML
AU  - Beevers,S
AU  - Kitwiroon,N
AU  - Dajnak,D
AU  - Walton,H
AU  - Lott,MC
AU  - Pye,S
AU  - Fecht,D
AU  - Toledano,MB
AU  - Holland,M
DO  - 10.3310/phr06070
EP  - 124
PY  - 2018///
SN  - 2050-4381
SP  - 1
TI  - Public health air pollution impacts of pathway options to meet the 2050 UK Climate Change Act target: a modelling study
T2  - Public Health Research
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3310/phr06070
UR  - https://www.journalslibrary.nihr.ac.uk/phr/phr06070#/abstract
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/83661
VL  - 6
ER  -
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