Imperial College London
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Professor Mireille B Toledano

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Mohn Chair; Population Child Health & Director-Mohn Centre
 
 
 
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Contact

 

m.toledano Website

 
 
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Location

 

525Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Rashid:2021:10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00205-X,
author = {Rashid, T and Bennett, J and Paciorek, C and Doyle, Y and Pearson-Stuttard, J and Flaxman, S and Fecht, D and Toledano, M and Li, G and Daby, H and Johnson, E and Davies, B and Ezzati, M},
doi = {10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00205-X},
journal = {The Lancet Public Health},
pages = {e805--e816},
title = {Life expectancy and risk of death in 6,791 English communities from 2002 to 2019: high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of civil registration data},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00205-X},
volume = {6},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background: There is limited data with high spatial granularity on how mortality and longevity have changed in English communities. We estimated trends from 2002 to 2019 in life expectancy and probabilities of death at different ages for all 6,791 English middle-layer super output areas (MSOAs).Methods: We used de-identified data for all deaths in England from 2002 to 2019 with information on age, sex and MSOA of residence, and population counts by age, sex and MSOA. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain estimates of age-specific death rates by sharing information across age groups, MSOAs and years. We used life table methods to calculate life expectancy at birth and probabilities of death in different ages by sex and MSOA.Results: In 2002-2006 and 2006-2010, the vast majority of MSOAs experienced a life expectancy increase for both sexes. In 2010-2014, female life expectancy decreased in 351 (5%) of MSOAs. By 2014-2019, the number of MSOAs with declining life expectancy was 1,270 (19%) for women and 784 (12%) for men. The life expectancy increase from 2002 to 2019 was smaller where life expectancy had been lower in 2002, mostly northern urban MSOAs, and larger where life expectancy had been higher in 2002, mostly MSOAs in and around London. As a result of these trends, the gap between the 1st and 99th percentiles of MSOA life expectancy for women increased from 10.7 (95% credible interval 10.4-10.9) in 2002 to reach 14.2 (13.9-14.5) years in 2019, and from 11.5 (11.3-11.7) years to 13.6 (13.4-13.9) years for men. Interpretation: In many English communities, life expectancy declined in the years prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. To ensure that this trend does not continue there is a need for pro-equity economic and social policies, and greater investment on public health and healthcare.
AU  - Rashid,T
AU  - Bennett,J
AU  - Paciorek,C
AU  - Doyle,Y
AU  - Pearson-Stuttard,J
AU  - Flaxman,S
AU  - Fecht,D
AU  - Toledano,M
AU  - Li,G
AU  - Daby,H
AU  - Johnson,E
AU  - Davies,B
AU  - Ezzati,M
DO  - 10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00205-X
EP  - 816
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 2468-2667
SP  - 805
TI  - Life expectancy and risk of death in 6,791 English communities from 2002 to 2019: high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of civil registration data
T2  - The Lancet Public Health
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00205-X
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246826672100205X?via%3Dihub
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/91534
VL  - 6
ER  -
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