Imperial College London
Portrait Picture

Dr Marcela P. Vizcaychipi

Faculty of Medicine, Department of Surgery & Cancer

Honorary Clinical Senior Lecturer
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

+44 (0)20 3315 8903m.vizcaychipi Website

 
 
//

Location

 

3.21Chelsea and Westminster HospitalChelsea and Westminster Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Nepogodiev:2020:10.1002/bjs.11746,
author = {Nepogodiev, D},
doi = {10.1002/bjs.11746},
journal = {British Journal of Surgery},
pages = {1440--1449},
title = {Elective surgery cancellations due to theCOVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/bjs.11746},
volume = {107},
year = {2020}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19.MethodsA global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations.ResultsThe best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption.ConclusionA very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.
AU  - Nepogodiev,D
DO  - 10.1002/bjs.11746
EP  - 1449
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 0007-1323
SP  - 1440
TI  - Elective surgery cancellations due to theCOVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans
T2  - British Journal of Surgery
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/bjs.11746
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000539810900001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://academic.oup.com/bjs/article/107/11/1440/6139510
VL  - 107
ER  -
Download