Imperial College London
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DrMichaelaVollmer

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Honorary Research Associate
 
 
 
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m.vollmer

 
 
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Location

 

Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@techreport{Mellan:2020:10.25561/78872,
author = {Mellan, T and Hoeltgebaum, H and Mishra, S and Whittaker, C and Schnekenberg, R and Gandy, A and Unwin, H and Vollmer, M and Coupland, H and Hawryluk, I and Rodrigues, Faria N and Vesga, J and Zhu, H and Hutchinson, M and Ratmann, O and Monod, M and Ainslie, K and Baguelin, M and Bhatia, S and Boonyasiri, A and Brazeau, N and Charles, G and Cooper, L and Cucunuba, Perez Z and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Dighe, A and Djaafara, A and Eaton, J and van, Elsland S and Fitzjohn, R and Fraser, K and Gaythorpe, K and Green, W and Hayes, S and Imai, N and Jeffrey, B and Knock, E and Laydon, D and Lees, J and Mangal, T and Mousa, A and Nedjati, Gilani G and Nouvellet, P and Olivera, Mesa D and Parag, K and Pickles, M and Thompson, H and Verity, R and Walters, C and Wang, H and Wang, Y and Watson, O and Whittles, L and Xi, X and Okell, L and Dorigatti, I and Walker, P and Ghani, A and Riley, S and Ferguson, N and Donnelly, C and Flaxman, S and Bhatt, S},
doi = {10.25561/78872},
title = {Report 21: Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/78872},
year = {2020}
}
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TY  - RPRT
AB  - Brazil is an epicentre for COVID-19 in Latin America. In this report we describe the Brazilian epidemicusing three epidemiological measures: the number of infections, the number of deaths and the reproduction number. Our modelling framework requires sufficient death data to estimate trends, and wetherefore limit our analysis to 16 states that have experienced a total of more than fifty deaths. Thedistribution of deaths among states is highly heterogeneous, with 5 states—São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro,Ceará, Pernambuco and Amazonas—accounting for 81% of deaths reported to date. In these states, weestimate that the percentage of people that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 ranges from 3.3% (95%CI: 2.8%-3.7%) in São Paulo to 10.6% (95% CI: 8.8%-12.1%) in Amazonas. The reproduction number (ameasure of transmission intensity) at the start of the epidemic meant that an infected individual wouldinfect three or four others on average. Following non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school closures and decreases in population mobility, we show that the reproduction number has dropped substantially in each state. However, for all 16 states we study, we estimate with high confidence that thereproduction number remains above 1. A reproduction number above 1 means that the epidemic isnot yet controlled and will continue to grow. These trends are in stark contrast to other major COVID19 epidemics in Europe and Asia where enforced lockdowns have successfully driven the reproductionnumber below 1. While the Brazilian epidemic is still relatively nascent on a national scale, our resultssuggest that further action is needed to limit spread and prevent health system overload.
AU  - Mellan,T
AU  - Hoeltgebaum,H
AU  - Mishra,S
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Schnekenberg,R
AU  - Gandy,A
AU  - Unwin,H
AU  - Vollmer,M
AU  - Coupland,H
AU  - Hawryluk,I
AU  - Rodrigues,Faria N
AU  - Vesga,J
AU  - Zhu,H
AU  - Hutchinson,M
AU  - Ratmann,O
AU  - Monod,M
AU  - Ainslie,K
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Bhatia,S
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Brazeau,N
AU  - Charles,G
AU  - Cooper,L
AU  - Cucunuba,Perez Z
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Dighe,A
AU  - Djaafara,A
AU  - Eaton,J
AU  - van,Elsland S
AU  - Fitzjohn,R
AU  - Fraser,K
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Green,W
AU  - Hayes,S
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Jeffrey,B
AU  - Knock,E
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Lees,J
AU  - Mangal,T
AU  - Mousa,A
AU  - Nedjati,Gilani G
AU  - Nouvellet,P
AU  - Olivera,Mesa D
AU  - Parag,K
AU  - Pickles,M
AU  - Thompson,H
AU  - Verity,R
AU  - Walters,C
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Wang,Y
AU  - Watson,O
AU  - Whittles,L
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Okell,L
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - Walker,P
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Flaxman,S
AU  - Bhatt,S
DO  - 10.25561/78872
PY  - 2020///
TI  - Report 21: Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/78872
UR  - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-08-COVID19-Report-21.pdf
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/78872
ER  -
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