Imperial College London
Portrait Picture

DrMichaelaVollmer

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Honorary Research Associate
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

m.vollmer

 
 
//

Location

 

Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@techreport{Vollmer:2020:10.25561/80295,
author = {Vollmer, M and Radhakrishnan, S and Kont, M and Flaxman, S and Bhatt, S and Costelloe, C and Honeyford, C and Aylin, P and Cooke, G and Redhead, J and White, P and Ferguson, N and Hauck, K and Nayagam, AS and Perez, Guzman PN},
doi = {10.25561/80295},
title = {Report 29: The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/80295},
year = {2020}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - RPRT
AB  - The health care system in England has been highly affected by the surge in demand due to patients afflicted by COVID-19. Yet the impact of the pandemic on the care seeking behaviour of patients and thus on Emergency department (ED) services is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies. In this report, we aimed to assess how the reorganisation of hospital care and admission policies to respond to the COVID-19 epidemic affected ED attendances and emergency hospital admissions. We performed time-series analyses of present year vs historic (2015-2019) trends of ED attendances between March 12 and May 31 at two large central London hospitals part of Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust (ICHNT) and compared these to regional and national trends. Historic attendances data to ICHNT and publicly available NHS situation reports were used to calibrate time series auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting models. We thus predicted the (conterfactual) expected number of ED attendances between March 12 (when the first public health measure leading to lock-down started in England) to May 31, 2020 (when the analysis was censored) at ICHNT, at all acute London Trusts and nationally. The forecasted trends were compared to observed data for the same periods of time. Lastly, we analysed the trends at ICHNT disaggregating by mode of arrival, distance from postcode of patient residence to hospital and primary diagnosis amongst those that were subsequently admitted to hospital and compared these data to an average for the same period of time in the years 2015 to 2019.During the study period (January 1 to May 31, 2020) there was an overall decrease in ED attendances of 35% at ICHNT, of 50% across all London NHS Trusts and 53% nationally. For ICHNT, the decrease in attendances was mainly amongst those aged younger than 65 and those arriving by their own means (e.g. personal or public transport). Increasing distance (km) from postcode of residence to hospi
AU  - Vollmer,M
AU  - Radhakrishnan,S
AU  - Kont,M
AU  - Flaxman,S
AU  - Bhatt,S
AU  - Costelloe,C
AU  - Honeyford,C
AU  - Aylin,P
AU  - Cooke,G
AU  - Redhead,J
AU  - White,P
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - Hauck,K
AU  - Nayagam,AS
AU  - Perez,Guzman PN
DO  - 10.25561/80295
PY  - 2020///
TI  - Report 29: The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/80295
UR  - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-07-01-COVID19-Report-29.pdf
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/80295
ER  -
Download