Imperial College London
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DrMichaelaVollmer

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Honorary Research Associate
 
 
 
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Contact

 

m.vollmer

 
 
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Location

 

Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@techreport{Hogan:2020:10.25561/82822,
author = {Hogan, A and Winskill, P and Watson, O and Walker, P and Whittaker, C and Baguelin, M and Haw, D and Lochen, A and Gaythorpe, K and Ainslie, K and Bhatt, S and Boonyasiri, A and Boyd, O and Brazeau, N and Cattarino, L and Charles, G and Cooper, L and Coupland, H and Cucunuba, Perez Z and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Donnelly, C and Dorigatti, I and Eales, O and van, Elsland S and Ferreira, Do Nascimento F and Fitzjohn, R and Flaxman, S and Green, W and Hallett, T and Hamlet, A and Hinsley, W and Imai, N and Jauneikaite, E and Jeffrey, B and Knock, E and Laydon, D and Lees, J and Mellan, T and Mishra, S and Nedjati, Gilani G and Nouvellet, P and Ower, A and Parag, K and Ragonnet-Cronin, M and Siveroni, I and Skarp, J and Thompson, H and Unwin, H and Verity, R and Vollmer, M and Volz, E and Walters, C and Wang, H and Wang, Y and Whittles, L and Xi, X and Muhib, F and Smith, P and Hauck, K and Ferguson, N and Ghani, A},
doi = {10.25561/82822},
title = {Report 33: Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/82822},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - RPRT
AB  - Several SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates are now in late-stage trials, with efficacy and safety results expected by the end of 2020. Even under optimistic scenarios for manufacture and delivery, the doses available in 2021 are likely to be limited. Here we identify optimal vaccine allocation strategies within and between countries to maximise health (avert deaths) under constraints on dose supply. We extended an existing mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission across different country settings to model the public health impact of potential vaccines, using a range of target product profiles developed by the World Health Organization. We show that as supply increases, vaccines that reduce or block infection – and thus transmission – in addition to preventing disease have a greater impact than those that prevent disease alone, due to the indirect protection provided to high-risk groups. We further demonstrate that the health impact of vaccination will depend on the cumulative infection incidence in the population when vaccination begins, the duration of any naturally acquired immunity, the likely trajectory of the epidemic in 2021 and the level of healthcare available to effectively treat those with disease. Within a country, we find that for a limited supply (doses for <20% of the population) the optimal strategy is to target the elderly and other high-risk groups. However, if a larger supply is available, the optimal strategy switches to targeting key transmitters (i.e. the working age population and potentially children) to indirectly protect the elderly and vulnerable. Given the likely global dose supply in 2021 (2 billion doses with a two-dose vaccine), we find that a strategy in which doses are allocated to countries in proportion to their population size is close to optimal in averting deaths. Such a strategy also aligns with the ethical principles agreed in pandemic preparedness planning.
AU  - Hogan,A
AU  - Winskill,P
AU  - Watson,O
AU  - Walker,P
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Haw,D
AU  - Lochen,A
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Ainslie,K
AU  - Bhatt,S
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Boyd,O
AU  - Brazeau,N
AU  - Cattarino,L
AU  - Charles,G
AU  - Cooper,L
AU  - Coupland,H
AU  - Cucunuba,Perez Z
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - Eales,O
AU  - van,Elsland S
AU  - Ferreira,Do Nascimento F
AU  - Fitzjohn,R
AU  - Flaxman,S
AU  - Green,W
AU  - Hallett,T
AU  - Hamlet,A
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Jauneikaite,E
AU  - Jeffrey,B
AU  - Knock,E
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Lees,J
AU  - Mellan,T
AU  - Mishra,S
AU  - Nedjati,Gilani G
AU  - Nouvellet,P
AU  - Ower,A
AU  - Parag,K
AU  - Ragonnet-Cronin,M
AU  - Siveroni,I
AU  - Skarp,J
AU  - Thompson,H
AU  - Unwin,H
AU  - Verity,R
AU  - Vollmer,M
AU  - Volz,E
AU  - Walters,C
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Wang,Y
AU  - Whittles,L
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Muhib,F
AU  - Smith,P
AU  - Hauck,K
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - Ghani,A
DO  - 10.25561/82822
PY  - 2020///
TI  - Report 33: Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/82822
UR  - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-09-25-COVID19-Report-33.pdf
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/82822
ER  -
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