Imperial College London
Alternate

DrMartinWalker

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Honorary Senior Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3229m.walker06 CV

 
 
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Location

 

G2716 South Wharf RoadSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Hamley:2020:infdis/jiz674,
author = {Hamley, J and Walker, M and Coffeng, LE and Milton, P and de, Vlas SJ and Stolk, WA and Basanez, M-G},
doi = {infdis/jiz674},
journal = {Journal of Infectious Diseases},
pages = {S510--S518},
title = {Structural uncertainty in onchocerciasis transmission models influences the estimation of elimination thresholds and selection of age groups for seromonitoring},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiz674},
volume = {221},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background.    The World Health Organization recommends monitoring Ov16 serologyin children aged <10 years for stopping mass ivermectin administration. Transmission models can help to identify the most informative age groups for serological monitoring and investigate the discriminatory power of serology-based elimination thresholds.Model predictions will depend on assumed age-exposure patterns and transmission efficiency at low infection levels. Methods.    The individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, was used toassess: i) the most informative age groups for serological monitoring using receiveroperator characteristic curves for different elimination thresholds under various age-dependent exposure assumptions, including those of ONCHOSIM (another widely-used model), and ii) the influence of within-human density-dependent parasite establishment (included in EPIONCHO-IBM but not in ONCHOSIM) on positive predictive values for different serological thresholds.Results.    When assuming EPIONCHO-IBM exposure patterns, under-10s are themost informative age group for seromonitoring; when assuming ONCHOSIM’s exposure patterns, 5–15-year olds are the most informative (as published elsewhere).Omitting density-dependent parasite establishment results in more lenientseroprevalence thresholds, even for higher baseline infection prevalence and shorter treatment durations.Conclusions.    Selecting appropriate seromonitoring age groups depends critically onage-dependent exposure patterns. The role of density dependence on elimination thresholds largely explains differing EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM elimination predictions.
AU  - Hamley,J
AU  - Walker,M
AU  - Coffeng,LE
AU  - Milton,P
AU  - de,Vlas SJ
AU  - Stolk,WA
AU  - Basanez,M-G
DO  - infdis/jiz674
EP  - 518
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 0022-1899
SP  - 510
TI  - Structural uncertainty in onchocerciasis transmission models influences the estimation of elimination thresholds and selection of age groups for seromonitoring
T2  - Journal of Infectious Diseases
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiz674
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/76416
VL  - 221
ER  -
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