Imperial College London
Alternate

DrMartinWalker

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Honorary Senior Lecturer
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3229m.walker06 CV

 
 
//

Location

 

G2716 South Wharf RoadSt Mary's Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Hamley:2021:trstmh/traa193,
author = {Hamley, JID and Blok, DJ and Walker, M and Milton, P and Hopkins, AD and Hamill, LC and Downs, P and de, Vlas SJ and Stolk, WA and Basáñez, M-G},
doi = {trstmh/traa193},
journal = {Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene},
pages = {269--280},
title = {What does the COVID-19 pandemic mean for the next decade of onchocerciasis control and elimination?},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/traa193},
volume = {115},
year = {2021}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin for onchocerciasis has been disrupted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modelling can help predict how missed/delayed MDA will affect short-term epidemiological trends and elimination prospects by 2030. METHODS: Two onchocerciasis transmission models (EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM) are used to simulate microfilarial prevalence trends, elimination probabilities and age profiles of Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial prevalence and intensity for different treatment histories and transmission settings, assuming no interruption, a 1-y (2020) interruption or a 2-y (2020-2021) interruption. Biannual MDA or increased coverage upon MDA resumption are investigated as remedial strategies. RESULTS: Programmes with shorter MDA histories and settings with high pre-intervention endemicity will be the most affected. Biannual MDA is more effective than increasing coverage for mitigating COVID-19's impact on MDA. Programmes that had already switched to biannual MDA should be minimally affected. In high-transmission settings with short treatment history, a 2-y interruption could lead to increased microfilarial load in children (EPIONCHO-IBM) and adults (ONCHOSIM). CONCLUSIONS: Programmes with shorter (annual MDA) treatment histories should be prioritised for remedial biannual MDA. Increases in microfilarial load could have short- and long-term morbidity and mortality repercussions. These results can guide decision-making to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on onchocerciasis elimination.
AU  - Hamley,JID
AU  - Blok,DJ
AU  - Walker,M
AU  - Milton,P
AU  - Hopkins,AD
AU  - Hamill,LC
AU  - Downs,P
AU  - de,Vlas SJ
AU  - Stolk,WA
AU  - Basáñez,M-G
DO  - trstmh/traa193
EP  - 280
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 0035-9203
SP  - 269
TI  - What does the COVID-19 pandemic mean for the next decade of onchocerciasis control and elimination?
T2  - Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/traa193
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33515042
UR  - https://academic.oup.com/trstmh/article/115/3/269/6123946
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/86010
VL  - 115
ER  -
Download