Imperial College London

ProfessorMajidEzzati

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Chair in Global Environmental Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 0767majid.ezzati Website

 
 
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Location

 

Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

339 results found

Hajifathalian K, Ueda P, Lu Y, Woodward M, Ahmadvand A, Aguilar-Salinas CA, Azizi F, Cifkova R, Di Cesare M, Eriksen L, Farzadfar F, Ikeda N, Khalili D, Khang Y-H, Lanska V, Leon-Munoz L, Magliano D, Msyamboza KP, Oh K, Rodriguez-Artalejo F, Rojas-Martinez R, Shaw JE, Stevens GA, Tolstrup J, Zhou B, Salomon JA, Ezzati M, Danaei Get al., 2015, A novel risk score to predict cardiovascular disease risk in national populations (Globorisk): a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health examination surveys, LANCET DIABETES & ENDOCRINOLOGY, Vol: 3, Pages: 339-355, ISSN: 2213-8587

Journal article

Bennett JE, Li G, Foreman K, Best N, Kontis V, Pearson C, Hambly P, Ezzati Met al., 2015, The future of life expectancy and life expectancy inequalities in England and Wales: Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting, Lancet, Vol: 386, Pages: 163-170, ISSN: 0140-6736

Background: To plan for pensions and health and social services, future mortality and life expectancy need to be forecast. Consistent forecasts for all subnational units within a country are very rare. Our aim was to forecast mortality and life expectancy for England and Wales' districts.Methods: We developed Bayesian spatiotemporal models for forecasting of age-specific mortality and life expectancy at a local, small-area level. The models included components that accounted for mortality in relation to age, birth cohort, time, and space. We used geocoded mortality and population data between 1981 and 2012 from the Office for National Statistics together with the model with the smallest error to forecast age-specific death rates and life expectancy to 2030 for 375 of England and Wales' 376 districts. We measured model performance by withholding recent data and comparing forecasts with this withheld data.Findings: Life expectancy at birth in England and Wales was 79·5 years (95% credible interval 79·5–79·6) for men and 83·3 years (83·3–83·4) for women in 2012. District life expectancies ranged between 75·2 years (74·9–75·6) and 83·4 years (82·1–84·8) for men and between 80·2 years (79·8–80·5) and 87·3 years (86·0–88·8) for women. Between 1981 and 2012, life expectancy increased by 8·2 years for men and 6·0 years for women, closing the female–male gap from 6·0 to 3·8 years. National life expectancy in 2030 is expected to reach 85·7 (84·2–87·4) years for men and 87·6 (86·7–88·9) years for women, further reducing the female advantage to 1·9 years. Life expectancy will reach or surpass 81·4 years for men and reach or surpass 84·5 years for women in every district by 2030. Longevity inequality across distr

Journal article

Di Cesare M, Bhatti Z, Soofi SB, Fortunato L, Ezzati M, Bhutta ZAet al., 2015, Geographical and socioeconomic inequalities in women and children's nutritional status in Pakistan in 2011: an analysis of data from a nationally representative survey., The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 3, Pages: e229-e239, ISSN: 2214-109X

Pakistan has one of the highest levels of child and maternal undernutrition worldwide, but little information about geographical and socioeconomic inequalities is available. We aimed to analyse anthropometric indicators for childhood and maternal nutrition at a district level in Pakistan and assess the association of nutritional status with food security and maternal and household socioeconomic factors.

Journal article

Lu Y, Hajifathalian K, Rimm EB, Ezzati M, Danaei Get al., 2015, Mediators of the Effect of Body Mass Index on Coronary Heart Disease Decomposing Direct and Indirect Effects, EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 26, Pages: 153-162, ISSN: 1044-3983

Journal article

Hajifathalian K, Ezzati M, Salomon J, Lu Y, Woodward M, Danaei Get al., 2015, A Model for Estimating Future Risk of Fatal Coronary Heart Disease for Global Populations (USA)., 20th IEA World Congress of Epidemiology (WCE), Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, Pages: 16-16, ISSN: 0300-5771

Conference paper

Arnold M, Pandeya N, Byrnes G, Renehan AG, Stevens GA, Ezzati M, Ferlay J, Miranda JJ, Romieu I, Dikshit R, Forman D, Soerjomataram Iet al., 2015, Global burden of cancer attributable to high body-mass index in 2012: a population-based study, LANCET ONCOLOGY, Vol: 16, Pages: 36-46, ISSN: 1470-2045

Journal article

Afshin A, Micha R, Khatibzadeh S, Fahimi S, Shi P, Powles J, Singh G, Yakoob MY, Abdollahi M, Al-Hooti S, Farzadfar F, Houshiar-rad A, Hwalla N, Koksal E, Musaiger A, Pekcan G, Sibai AM, Zaghloul S, Danaei G, Ezzati M, Mozaffarian Det al., 2015, The impact of dietary habits and metabolic risk factors on cardiovascular and diabetes mortality in countries of the Middle East and North Africa in 2010: a comparative risk assessment analysis, BMJ OPEN, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2044-6055

Journal article

Feigin VL, Krishnamurthi RV, Parmar P, Norrving B, Mensah GA, Bennett DA, Barker-Collo S, Moran AE, Sacco RL, Truelsen T, Davis S, Pandian JD, Naghavi M, Forouzanfar MH, Nguyen G, Johnson CO, Vos T, Meretoja A, Murray CJL, Roth GA, Group GBDW, Group GBDSPEet al., 2015, Update on the Global Burden of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke in 1990-2013: The GBD 2013 Study, Neuroepidemiology, Vol: 45, Pages: 161-176

BACKGROUND: Global stroke epidemiology is changing rapidly. Although age-standardized rates of stroke mortality have decreased worldwide in the past 2 decades, the absolute numbers of people who have a stroke every year, and live with the consequences of stroke or die from their stroke, are increasing. Regular updates on the current level of stroke burden are important for advancing our knowledge on stroke epidemiology and facilitate organization and planning of evidence-based stroke care. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) and their trends for ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. METHODOLOGY: Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs and YLDs were estimated using all available data on mortality and stroke incidence, prevalence and excess mortality. Statistical models and country-level covariate data were employed, and all rates were age-standardized to a global population. All estimates were produced with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS: In 2013, there were globally almost 25.7 million stroke survivors (71% with IS), 6.5 million deaths from stroke (51% died from IS), 113 million DALYs due to stroke (58% due to IS) and 10.3 million new strokes (67% IS). Over the 1990-2013 period, there was a significant increase in the absolute number of DALYs due to IS, and of deaths from IS and HS, survivors and incident events for both IS and HS. The preponderance of the burden of stroke continued to reside in developing countries, comprising 75.2% of deaths from stroke and 81.0% of stroke-related DALYs. Globally, the proportional contribution of stroke-related DALYs and deaths due to stroke compared to all diseases increased from 1990 (3.54% (95% UI 3.11-4.00) and 9.66% (95% UI 8.47-10.70), respectively) to 2013 (4.62% (95% UI 4.01-5.30) and 11.75% (95% UI 10.45-13.31), respectively), but there was a d

Journal article

Shan M, Yang X, Ezzati M, Chaturvedi N, Coady E, Hughes A, Shi Y, Yang M, Zhang Y, Baumgartner Jet al., 2014, A feasibility study of the association of exposure to biomass smoke with vascular function, inflammation, and cellular aging, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, Vol: 135, Pages: 165-172, ISSN: 0013-9351

Journal article

Baumgartner J, Zhang Y, Schauer JJ, Huang W, Wang Y, Ezzati Met al., 2014, Highway proximity and black carbon from cookstoves as a risk factor for higher blood pressure in rural China, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 111, Pages: 13229-13234, ISSN: 0027-8424

Journal article

Mozaffarian D, Fahimi S, Singh GM, Micha R, Khatibzadeh S, Engell RE, Lim S, Danaei G, Ezzati M, Powles Jet al., 2014, Global Sodium Consumption and Death from Cardiovascular Causes, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 371, Pages: 624-634, ISSN: 0028-4793

Journal article

Danaei G, Lu Y, Singh GM, Carnahan E, Stevens GA, Cowan MJ, Farzadfar F, Lin JK, Finucane MM, Rao M, Khang Y-H, Riley LM, Mozaff D, Lim SS, Ezzati M, Aamodt G, Abdeen Z, Abdella NA, Abdul Rahim HF, Addo J, Aekplakorn W, Afifi MM, Agabiti-Rosei E, Salinas CAA, Agyemang C, Ali MK, Ali MM, Al-Nsour M, Al-Nuaim AR, Ambady R, Di Angelantonio E, Aro P, Azizi F, Babu BV, Bahalim AN, Barbagallo CM, Barbieri MA, Barcelo A, Barreto SM, Barros H, Bautista LE, Benetos A, Bjerregaard P, Bjoerkelund C, Bo S, Bobak M, Bonora E, Botana MA, Bovet P, Breckenkamp J, Breteler MM, Broda G, Brown IJ, Bursztyn M, de Leon AC, Campos H, Cappuccio FP, Capuano V, Casiglia E, Castellano M, Castetbon K, Cea L, Chang C-J, Chaouki N, Chatterji S, Chen C-J, Chen Z, Choi J-S, Chua L, Cifkova R, Cobiac LJ, Cooper RS, Corsi AM, Costanza MC, Craig CL, Dankner RS, Dastgiri S, Delgado E, Dinc G, Doi Y, Dong G-H, Dorsi E, Dragano N, Drewnowski A, Eggertsen R, Elliott P, Engeland A, Erem C, Esteghamati A, Fall CHD, Fan J-G, Ferreccio C, Fezeu L, Firmo JO, Florez HJ, Fornes NS, Fowkes FGR, Franceschini G, Frisk F, Fuchs FD, Fuller EL, Getz L, Giampaoli S, Gomez LF, Gomez-Zumaquero JM, Graff-Iversen S, Grant JF, Carvajal RG, Gulliford MC, Gupta R, Gupta PC, Gureje O, Gutierrez HR, Hansen TW, Hata J, He J, Heim N, Heinrich J, Hemmingsson T, Hennis A, Herman WH, Herrera VM, Ho S, Holdsworth M, Frisman GH, Hopman WM, Hussain A, Husseini A, Ibrahim MM, Ikeda N, Jacobsen BK, Jaddou HY, Jafar TH, Janghorbani M, Jasienska G, Joffres MR, Jonas JB, Kadiki OA, Kalter-Leibovici O, Kamadjeu RM, Kaptoge S, Karalis I, Kastarinen MJ, Katz J, Keinan-Boker L, Kelly P, Khalilzadeh O, Kiechl S, Kim KW, Kiyohara Y, Kobayashi J, Krause MP, Kubinova R, Kurjata P, Kusuma YS, Lam TH, Langhammer A, Lawes CMM, Le C, Lee J, Levy-Marchal C, Lewington S, Li Y, Li Y, Lim TO, Lin X, Lin C-C, Lin H-H, Lind L, Lissner L, Liu X, Lopez-Jaramillo P, Lorbeer R, Ma G, Ma S, Macia F, MacLean DR, Maggi S, Magliano DJ, Makdisse M, Mancia G, Mannamet al., 2014, Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment, LANCET DIABETES & ENDOCRINOLOGY, Vol: 2, Pages: 634-647, ISSN: 2213-8587

Journal article

Ezzati M, Danaei G, 2014, High serum cholesterol: a missed risk factor for chronic kidney disease mortality Reply, LANCET DIABETES & ENDOCRINOLOGY, Vol: 2, Pages: 614-614, ISSN: 2213-8587

Journal article

Fink G, Sudfeld CR, Danaei G, Ezzati M, Fawzi WWet al., 2014, Scaling-Up Access to Family Planning May Improve Linear Growth and Child Development in Low and Middle Income Countries, PLOS ONE, Vol: 9, ISSN: 1932-6203

Journal article

Beaglehole R, Bonita R, Ezzati M, Alleyne G, Dain K, Kishore SP, Horton Ret al., 2014, NCD Countdown 2025: accountability for the 25 x 25 NCD mortality reduction target, LANCET, Vol: 384, Pages: 105-107, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

Danaei G, Lu Y, Hajifathalian K, Rimm EB, Woodward M, Ezzati Met al., 2014, Metabolic mediators of body-mass index and cardiovascular risk Reply, LANCET, Vol: 383, Pages: 2043-2044, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

Kontis V, Mathers CD, Rehm J, Stevens GA, Shield KD, Bonita R, Riley LM, Poznyak V, Beaglehole R, Ezzati Met al., 2014, Contribution of six risk factors to achieving the 25×25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study, Lancet

Journal article

Micha R, Khatibzadeh S, Shi P, Fahimi S, Lim S, Andrews KG, Engell RE, Powles J, Ezzati M, Mozaffarian Det al., 2014, Global, regional, and national consumption levels of dietary fats and oils in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis including 266 country-specific nutrition surveys, BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 348, ISSN: 1756-1833

Journal article

Moran AE, Forouzanfar MH, Roth GA, Mensah GA, Ezzati M, Flaxman A, Murray CJL, Naghavi Met al., 2014, The Global Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease in 1990 and 2010, CIRCULATION, Vol: 129, Pages: 1493-1501, ISSN: 0009-7322

Journal article

Moran AE, Forouzanfar MH, Roth GA, Mensah GA, Ezzati M, Murray CJL, Naghavi Met al., 2014, Temporal Trends in Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality in 21 World Regions, 1980 to 2010 The Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study, CIRCULATION, Vol: 129, Pages: 1483-1492, ISSN: 0009-7322

Journal article

Bennett JE, Blangiardo M, Fecht D, Elliott P, Ezzati Met al., 2014, Vulnerability to the mortality effects of warm temperature in the districts of England and Wales, Nature Climate Change, Vol: 4, Pages: 269-273, ISSN: 1758-678X

Warm temperatures adversely affect disease occurrence and death, in extreme conditions as well as when the temperature changes are more modest1,2. Therefore climate change, which is expected to affect both average temperatures and temperature variability, is likely to impact health even in temperate climates. Climate change risk assessment is enriched if there is information on vulnerability and resilience to effects of temperature. Some studies have analysed socio-demographic characteristics that make individuals vulnerable to adverse effects of temperature1,2,3,4. Less is known about community-level vulnerability. We used geo-coded mortality and environmental data and Bayesian spatial methods to conduct a national small-area analysis of the mortality effects of warm temperature for all 376 districts in England and Wales. In the most vulnerable districts, those in London and south/southeast England, odds of dying from cardiorespiratory causes increased by more than 10% for 1 °C warmer temperature, compared with virtually no effect in the most resilient districts, which were in the far north. A 2 °C warmer summer may result in 1,552 (95% credible interval 1,307–1,762) additional deaths, about one-half of which would occur in 95 districts. The findings enable risk and adaptation analyses to incorporate local vulnerability to warm temperature and to quantify inequality in its effects.

Journal article

Burnett RT, Pope CA, Ezzati M, Olives C, Lim SS, Mehta S, Shin HH, Singh G, Hubbell B, Brauer M, Anderson HR, Smith KR, Balmes JR, Bruce NG, Kan H, Laden F, Pruess-Ustuen A, Turner MC, Gapstur SM, Diver WR, Cohen Aet al., 2014, An Integrated Risk Function for Estimating the Global Burden of Disease Attributable to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure, ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES, Vol: 122, Pages: 397-403, ISSN: 0091-6765

Journal article

Lu Y, Hajifathalian K, Ezzati M, Woodward M, Rimm EB, Danaei Get al., 2014, Metabolic mediators of the effects of body-mass index, overweight, and obesity on coronary heart disease and stroke: a pooled analysis of 97 prospective cohorts with 1.8 million participants, LANCET, Vol: 383, Pages: 970-983, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

Krishnamurthi RV, Moran AE, Forouzanfar MH, Bennett DA, Mensah GA, Lawes CMM, Barker-Collo S, Connor M, Roth GA, Sacco R, Ezzati M, Naghavi M, Murray CJL, Feigin VL, Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study Stroke Expert Groupet al., 2014, The global burden of hemorrhagic stroke: a summary of findings from the GBD 2010 study., Glob Heart, Vol: 9, Pages: 101-106

This report summarizes the findings of the GBD 2010 (Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors) study for hemorrhagic stroke (HS). Multiple databases were searched for relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. The GBD 2010 study provided standardized estimates of the incidence, mortality, mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost for HS (including intracerebral hemorrhage and subarachnoid hemorrhage) by age, sex, and income level (high-income countries [HIC]; low- and middle-income countries [LMIC]) for 21 GBD 2010 regions in 1990, 2005, and 2010. In 2010, there were 5.3 million cases of HS and over 3.0 million deaths due to HS. There was a 47% increase worldwide in the absolute number of HS cases. The largest proportion of HS incident cases (80%) and deaths (63%) occurred in LMIC countries. There were 62.8 million DALY lost (86% in LMIC) due to HS. The overall age-standardized incidence rate of HS per 100,000 person-years in 2010 was 48.41 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 45.44 to 52.13) in HIC and 99.43 (95% CI: 85.37 to 116.28) in LMIC, and 81.52 (95% CI: 72.27 to 92.82) globally. The age-standardized incidence of HS increased by 18.5% worldwide between 1990 and 2010. In HIC, there was a reduction in incidence of HS by 8% (95% CI: 1% to 15%), mortality by 38% (95% CI: 32% to 43%), DALY by 39% (95% CI: 32% to 44%), and MIR by 27% (95% CI: 19% to 35%) in the last 2 decades. In LMIC countries, there was a significant increase in the incidence of HS by 22% (95% CI: 5% to 30%), whereas there was a significant reduction in mortality rates of 23% (95% CI: -3% to 36%), DALY lost of 25% (95% CI: 7% to 38%), and MIR by 36% (95% CI: 16% to 49%). There were significant regional differences in incidence rates of HS, with the highest rates in LMIC regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia, and lowest rates in High Income North America and Western Europe. The worldwide burden of HS has increased over the last 2

Journal article

Moran AE, Tzong KY, Forouzanfar MH, Rothy GA, Mensah GA, Ezzati M, Murray CJL, Naghavi Met al., 2014, Variations in ischemic heart disease burden by age, country, and income: the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 study., Glob Heart, Vol: 9, Pages: 91-99

BACKGROUND: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) was the leading cause of disease burden worldwide in 2010. The majority of IHD burden affected middle-income regions. We hypothesized IHD burden may vary among countries, even within the same broad geographic region. METHODS: Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to IHD were estimated at the region level for 7 “super-regions,” 21 regions, and 187 countries using geographically nested models for IHD mortality and prevalent nonfatal IHD (nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, or ischemic heart failure). Acute myocardial infarction, angina, and heart failure disability weights were applied to prevalent cases. Absolute numbers of DALYs and age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 persons were estimated for each region and country in 1990 and 2010. IHD burden for world regions was analyzed by country, income, and age. RESULTS: About two-thirds of 2010 IHD DALYs affected middle-income countries. In the North Africa/Middle East and South Asia regions, which have high IHD burden, more than 29% of men and 24% of women struck by IHD were <50 years old. Age-standardized IHD DALYs decreased in most countries between 1990 and 2010, but increased in a number of countries in the Eastern Europe/Central Asia region (>1,000 per 100,000 increase) and South Asia region (>175 per 100,000). Age-standardized DALYs varied by up to 8-fold among countries, by about 9,000 per 100,000 among middle-income countries, about 7,400 among low-income countries, and about 4,300 among high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of IHD burden in 2010 affected middle-income regions, where younger adults were more likely to develop IHD in regions such as South Asia and North Africa/Middle East. However, IHD burden varied substantially by country within regions, especially among middle-income countries. A global or regional approach to IHD prevention will not be sufficient; research and policy should focus on the highest burd

Journal article

Bennett DA, Krishnamurthi RV, Barker-Collo S, Forouzanfar MH, Naghavi M, Connor M, Lawes CMM, Moran AE, Anderson LM, Roth GA, Mensah GA, Ezzati M, Murray CJL, Feigin VL, Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study Stroke Expert Groupet al., 2014, The global burden of ischemic stroke: findings of the GBD 2010 study., Glob Heart, Vol: 9, Pages: 107-112

This study sought to summarize the findings of the GBD 2010 (Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors) study for ischemic stroke (IS) and to report the impact of tobacco smoking on IS burden in specific countries. The GBD 2010 searched multiple databases to identify relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. The GBD 2010 analytical tools were used to calculate region-specific IS incidence, mortality, mortality-to-incidence ratio, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost, including 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). In 2010, there were approximately 11,569,000 incident IS events (63% in low- and middle-income countries [LMIC]), approximately 2,835,000 deaths from IS (57% in LMIC), and approximately 39,389,000 DALY lost due to IS (64% in LMIC). From 1990 to 2010, there was a significant increase in global IS burden in terms of absolute number of people with incident IS (37% increase), deaths from IS (21% increase), and DALY lost due to IS (18% increase). Age-standardized IS incidence, DALY lost, mortality, and mortality-to-incidence ratios in high-income countries declined by about 13% (95% UI: 6% to 18%), 34% (95% UI: 16% to 36%), and 37% (95% UI: 19% to 39%), 21% (95% UI: 10% to 27%), respectively. However, in LMIC there was a modest 6% increase in the age-standardized incidence of IS (95% UI: -7% to 18%) despite modest reductions in mortality rates, DALY lost, and mortality-to-incidence ratios. There was considerable variability among country-specific estimates within broad GBD regions. China, Russia, and India were ranked highest in both 1990 and 2010 for IS deaths attributable to tobacco consumption. Although age-standardized IS mortality rates have declined over the last 2 decades, the absolute global burden of IS is increasing, with the bulk of DALY lost in LMIC. Tobacco consumption is an important modifiable risk factor for IS, and in both 1990 and 2010, the top ranked countries for IS deaths that could be attributed to tobacco cons

Journal article

Sampson UKA, Fowkes FGR, McDermott MM, Criqui MH, Aboyans V, Norman PE, Forouzanfar MH, Naghavi M, Song Y, Harrell FE, Denenberg JO, Mensah GA, Ezzati M, Murray Cet al., 2014, Global and regional burden of death and disability from peripheral artery disease: 21 world regions, 1990 to 2010., Glob Heart, Vol: 9, Pages: 145-158.e21

A comprehensive and systematic assessment of disability and mortality due to lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) is lacking. Therefore, we estimated PAD deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and years of life lost in 21 regions worldwide for 1990 and 2010. We used the GBD (Global Burden of Diseases 2010) study causes of death database, and the cause of death ensemble modeling approach to assess levels and trends of PAD deaths and years of life lost over time, by age, sex, and region. Assessment of DALYs employed estimates of PAD prevalence from systematic reviews of epidemiologic data using a Bayesian meta-regression method. In 1990, the age-specific PAD death rate per 100,000 population ranged from 0.05 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.03 to 0.09) among those 40 to 44 years old to 16.63 (95% CI: 10.47 to 25.31) among the 80+ years group. In 2010, the corresponding estimates were 0.07 (95% CI: 0.04 to 0.13) and 28.71 (95% CI: 18.3 to 43.06). Death rates increased consistently with age in 1990 and 2010, and the rates in 2010 were higher than they were in 1990 in all age categories. The largest relative change in median death rate of +6.03 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.50 to 11.85) was noted in the Asia Pacific-High Income region and was largely driven by higher rates in women: +17.36 (95% CI: 1.79 to 32.01) versus +1.25 (95% CI: 0.13 to 2.39) in men. The overall relative change in median DALYs was larger in developing nations than in developed nations: 1.15 (95% CI: 0.80 to 1.66) versus 0.77 (95% CI: 0.55 to 1.08). Of note, the overall relative change in median DALYs was higher among both men and women in developing versus developed countries: men: 1.18 (95% CI: 0.82 to 1.65) versus 0.51 (95% CI: 0.30 to 0.81), and women: 1.11 (95% CI: 0.58 to 2.02) versus 1 (95% CI: 0.67 to 1.47). Within developed nations, the overall relative change in median DALY rates was larger in women than in men: +1.00 (95% CI: 0.67 to 1.47) versus +0.5

Journal article

Sampson UKA, Norman PE, Fowkes FGR, Aboyans V, Song Y, Harrell FE, Forouzanfar MH, Naghavi M, Denenberg JO, McDermott MM, Criqui MH, Mensah GA, Ezzati M, Murray Cet al., 2014, Estimation of global and regional incidence and prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysms 1990 to 2010., Glob Heart, Vol: 9, Pages: 159-170

The global burden of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) has not been studied previously. Such information is important given the emergence of cardiovascular diseases in developing countries. We conducted a systematic literature review and estimated the global and regional incidence and prevalence of AAA in 21 world regions by age and sex. The search for prevalence and incidence of AAA using standard clinical and epidemiological terms was conducted using MEDLINE (1950 to 2010), EMBASE (1980 to 2010), AMED (1985 to 2010), CINAHL (1982 to 2010), and LILACS (2008 to 2010). Data abstracted from the systematic review served as priors for Bayesian meta-regression analyses. The analysis drew from 26 high-quality studies to estimate AAA prevalence and incidence. In 1990, the global age-specific prevalence rate per 100,000 ranged from 8.43 (95% CI: 7.03 to 10.14) in the 40 to 44 years age group to 2,422.53 (95% CI: 2,298.63 to 2,562.25) in the 75 to 79 years age group; the corresponding range in 2010 was 7.88 (95% CI: 6.54 to 9.59) to 2,274.82 (95% CI: 2,149.77 to 2,410.17). Prevalence was higher in developed versus developing nations, and the rates within each development stratum decreased between 1990 and 2010. Globally, the age-specific annual incidence rate per 100,000 in 1990 ranged from 0.89 (95% CI: 0.66 to 1.17) in 40 to 44 years age group to 176.08 (95% CI: 162.72 to 190.28) in the 75 to 79 years age group. In 2010, this range was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.61 to 1.11) to 164.57 (95% CI: 152.20 to 178.78). The highest prevalence in 1990 was in Australasia and North America high income regions: 382.65 (95% CI: 356.27 to 410.88) and 300.59 (95% CI: 280.93 to 321.54), respectively. Australasia had the highest prevalence in 2010, although the prevalence decreased to 310.27 (95% CI: 289.01 to 332.94). Regional prevalence increased in Oceania, tropical Latin America, Asia Pacific high income, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Central SSA, South Asia, Western SSA, and Central Asia. AAA

Journal article

Sampson UKA, Norman PE, Fowkes FGR, Aboyans V, Yanna Song, Harrell FE, Forouzanfar MH, Naghavi M, Denenberg JO, McDermott MM, Criqui MH, Mensah GA, Ezzati M, Murray Cet al., 2014, Global and regional burden of aortic dissection and aneurysms: mortality trends in 21 world regions, 1990 to 2010., Glob Heart, Vol: 9, Pages: 171-180.e10

A comprehensive and systematic assessment of the global burden of aortic aneurysms (AA) has been lacking. Therefore, we estimated AA regional deaths and years of life lost (YLL) in 21 regions worldwide for 1990 and 2010. We used the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2010 study causes of death database and the cause of death ensemble modeling approach to assess levels and trends of AA deaths by age, sex, and GBD region. The global AA death rate per 100,000 population was 2.49 (95% CI: 1.78 to 3.27) in 1990 and 2.78 (95% CI: 2.04 to 3.62) in 2010. In 1990 and 2010, the highest mean death rates were in Australasia and Western Europe: 8.82 (95% CI: 6.96 to 10.79) and 7.69 (95% CI: 6.11 to 9.57) in 1990 and 8.38 (95% CI: 6.48 to 10.86) and 7.68 (95% CI: 6.13 to 9.54) in 2010. YLL rates by GBD region mirrored the mortality rate pattern. Overall, men had higher AA death rates than women: 2.86 (95% CI: 1.90 to 4.22) versus 2.12 (95% CI: 1.33 to 3.00) in 1990 and 3.40 (95% CI: 2.26 to 5.01) versus 2.15 (95% CI: 1.44 to 2.89) in 2010. The relative change in median death rate was +0.22 (95% CI: 0.10 to 0.33) in developed nations versus +0.71 (95% CI: 0.28 to 1.40) in developing nations. The smallest relative changes in median death rate were noted in North America high income, Central Europe, Western Europe, and Australasia, with estimates of +0.07 (95% CI: -0.26 to 0.37), +0.08 (95% CI: -0.02 to 0.23), +0.09 (95% CI: -0.02 to 0.21), and +0.22 (95% CI: -0.08 to 0.46), respectively. The largest increases were in Asia Pacific high income, Southeast Asia, Latin America tropical, Oceania, South Asia, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa. Women rather than men drove the increase in the Asia Pacific high-income region: the relative change in median rates was +2.92 (95% CI: 0.6 to 4.35) versus +1.05 (95% CI: 0.61 to 2.42). In contrast to high-income regions, the observed pattern in developing regions suggests increasing AA burden, wh

Journal article

Chugh SS, Havmoeller R, Narayanan K, Singh D, Rienstra M, Benjamin EJ, Gillum RF, Kim Y-H, McAnulty JH, Zheng Z-J, Forouzanfar MH, Naghavi M, Mensah GA, Ezzati M, Murray CJLet al., 2014, Worldwide Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation A Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study, CIRCULATION, Vol: 129, Pages: 837-847, ISSN: 0009-7322

Journal article

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