Imperial College London

ProfessorMajidEzzati

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Chair in Global Environmental Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 0767majid.ezzati Website

 
 
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Location

 

Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Parks:2020:10.1038/s41591-019-0721-y,
author = {Parks, RM and Bennett, JE and Tamura-Wicks, H and Kontis, V and Toumi, R and Danaei, G and Ezzati, M},
doi = {10.1038/s41591-019-0721-y},
journal = {Nature Medicine},
pages = {65--70},
title = {Anomalously warm temperatures are associated with increased injury deaths},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41591-019-0721-y},
volume = {26},
year = {2020}
}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB - Temperatures which deviate from long-term local norm affect human health, and are projected to become more frequent as the global climate changes.1 There is limited data on how such anomalies affect deaths from injuries. Here, we used data on mortality and temperature over 38 years (1980-2017) in the contiguous USA and formulated a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to quantify how anomalous temperatures, defined as deviations of monthly temperature from the local average monthly temperature over the entire analysis period, affect deaths from unintentional (transport, falls and drownings) and intentional (assault and suicide) injuries, by age group and sex. We found that a 1.5°C anomalously warm year, as envisioned under the Paris Climate Agreement,2 would be associated with an estimated 1,601 (95% credible interval 1,430-37 1,776) additional injury deaths. 84% of these additional deaths would occur in males, mostly in adolescent to middle ages. These deaths would comprise of increases in deaths 39 from drownings, transport, assault and suicide, offset partly by a decline in deaths from falls in older ages. The findings demonstrate the need for targeted interventions against injuries during periods of anomalously high temperatures, especially as these episodes are likely to increase with global climate change.
AU - Parks,RM
AU - Bennett,JE
AU - Tamura-Wicks,H
AU - Kontis,V
AU - Toumi,R
AU - Danaei,G
AU - Ezzati,M
DO - 10.1038/s41591-019-0721-y
EP - 70
PY - 2020///
SN - 1078-8956
SP - 65
TI - Anomalously warm temperatures are associated with increased injury deaths
T2 - Nature Medicine
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41591-019-0721-y
UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-019-0721-y
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/75413
VL - 26
ER -