Imperial College London

ProfessorMajidEzzati

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Chair in Global Environmental Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 0767majid.ezzati Website

 
 
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Location

 

Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Kontis:2015:10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00179-5,
author = {Kontis, V and Mathers, CD and Bonita, R and Stevens, GA and Rehm, J and Shield, KD and Riley, LM and Poznyak, V and Jabbour, S and Garg, RM and Hennis, A and Fouad, HM and Beaglehole, R and Ezzati, M},
doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00179-5},
journal = {Lancet Global Health},
pages = {e746--e757},
title = {Regional contributions of six preventable risk factors to achieving the 25×25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00179-5},
volume = {3},
year = {2015}
}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB - BackgroundCountries have agreed to reduce premature mortality from the four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 25% from 2010 levels by 2025 (referred to as the 25×25 target). Countries also agreed on a set of global voluntary targets for selected NCD risk factors. Previous analyses have shown that achieving the risk factor targets can contribute substantially towards meeting the 25×25 mortality target at the global level. We estimated the contribution of achieving six of the globally agreed risk factor targets towards meeting the 25×25 mortality target by region.MethodsWe estimated the effect of achieving the targets for six risk factors (tobacco and alcohol use, salt intake, obesity, and raised blood pressure and glucose) on NCD mortality between 2010 and 2025. Our methods accounted for multicausality of NCDs and for the fact that, when risk factor exposure increases or decreases, the harmful or beneficial effects on NCDs accumulate gradually. We used data for risk factor and mortality trends from systematic analyses of available country data. Relative risks for the effects of individual and multiple risks, and for change in risk after decreases or increases in exposure, were from reanalyses and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies.FindingsThe probability of dying between the ages 30 years and 70 years from the four main NCDs in 2010 ranged from 19% in the region of the Americas to 29% in southeast Asia for men, and from 13% in Europe to 21% in southeast Asia for women. If current trends continue, the probability of dying prematurely from the four main NCDs is projected to increase in the African region but decrease in the other five regions. If the risk factor targets are achieved, the 25×25 target will be surpassed in Europe in both men and women, and will be achieved in women (and almost achieved in men) in the western Pacific; the regions of the Americas, the eastern Mediterranean, and southeast Asia will approach the t
AU - Kontis,V
AU - Mathers,CD
AU - Bonita,R
AU - Stevens,GA
AU - Rehm,J
AU - Shield,KD
AU - Riley,LM
AU - Poznyak,V
AU - Jabbour,S
AU - Garg,RM
AU - Hennis,A
AU - Fouad,HM
AU - Beaglehole,R
AU - Ezzati,M
DO - 10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00179-5
EP - 757
PY - 2015///
SN - 2214-109X
SP - 746
TI - Regional contributions of six preventable risk factors to achieving the 25×25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study
T2 - Lancet Global Health
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00179-5
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/41066
VL - 3
ER -