Imperial College London

ProfessorMajidEzzati

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Chair in Global Environmental Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 0767majid.ezzati Website

 
 
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Location

 

Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Ueda:2017:10.1016/S2213-8587(17)30015-3,
author = {Ueda, P and Woodward, M and Lu, Y and Hajifathalian, K and Al-Wotayan, R and Aguilar-Salinas, CA and Ahmadvand, A and Azizi, F and Bentham, J and Cifkova, R and Di, Cesare M and Eriksen, L and Farzadfar, F and Ferguson, TS and Ikeda, N and Khalili, D and Khang, YH and Lanska, V and León-Muñoz, L and Magliano, DJ and Margozzini, P and Msyamboza, KP and Mutungi, G and Oh, K and Oum, S and Rodríguez-Artalejo, F and Rojas-Martinez, R and Valdivia, G and Wilks, R and Shaw, JE and Stevens, GA and Tolstrup, JS and Zhou, B and Salomon, JA and Ezzati, M and Danaei, G},
doi = {10.1016/S2213-8587(17)30015-3},
journal = {Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology},
pages = {196--213},
title = {Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(17)30015-3},
volume = {5},
year = {2017}
}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB - BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40-74 years. METHODS: Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40-64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. FINDINGS: Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for
AU - Ueda,P
AU - Woodward,M
AU - Lu,Y
AU - Hajifathalian,K
AU - Al-Wotayan,R
AU - Aguilar-Salinas,CA
AU - Ahmadvand,A
AU - Azizi,F
AU - Bentham,J
AU - Cifkova,R
AU - Di,Cesare M
AU - Eriksen,L
AU - Farzadfar,F
AU - Ferguson,TS
AU - Ikeda,N
AU - Khalili,D
AU - Khang,YH
AU - Lanska,V
AU - León-Muñoz,L
AU - Magliano,DJ
AU - Margozzini,P
AU - Msyamboza,KP
AU - Mutungi,G
AU - Oh,K
AU - Oum,S
AU - Rodríguez-Artalejo,F
AU - Rojas-Martinez,R
AU - Valdivia,G
AU - Wilks,R
AU - Shaw,JE
AU - Stevens,GA
AU - Tolstrup,JS
AU - Zhou,B
AU - Salomon,JA
AU - Ezzati,M
AU - Danaei,G
DO - 10.1016/S2213-8587(17)30015-3
EP - 213
PY - 2017///
SN - 2213-8595
SP - 196
TI - Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys.
T2 - Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(17)30015-3
UR - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28126460
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/44670
VL - 5
ER -