Publications
422 results found
Baumgartner J, Zhang Y, Schauer JJ, et al., 2014, Highway proximity and black carbon from cookstoves as a risk factor for higher blood pressure in rural China, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 111, Pages: 13229-13234, ISSN: 0027-8424
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- Citations: 155
Arku RE, Dionisio KL, Hughes AF, et al., 2014, Personal particulate matter exposures and locations of students in four neighborhoods in Accra, Ghana, JOURNAL OF EXPOSURE SCIENCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 25, Pages: 557-566, ISSN: 1559-0631
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- Citations: 22
Mozaffarian D, Fahimi S, Singh GM, et al., 2014, Global Sodium Consumption and Death from Cardiovascular Causes, NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, Vol: 371, Pages: 624-634, ISSN: 0028-4793
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- Citations: 793
Kontis V, Mathers CD, Rehm J, et al., 2014, Contribution of six risk factors to achieving the 25×25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study, The Lancet, Vol: 384, Pages: 427-437, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundCountries have agreed to reduce premature mortality (defined as the probability of dying between the ages of 30 years and 70 years) from four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs)—cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, cancers, and diabetes—by 25% from 2010 levels by 2025 (referred to as 25×25 target). Targets for selected NCD risk factors have also been agreed on. We estimated the contribution of achieving six risk factor targets towards meeting the 25×25 mortality target.MethodsWe estimated the impact of achieving the targets for six risk factors (tobacco and alcohol use, salt intake, obesity, and raised blood pressure and glucose) on NCD mortality between 2010 and 2025. Our methods accounted for multi-causality of NCDs and for the fact that when risk factor exposure increases or decreases, the harmful or beneficial effects on NCDs accumulate gradually. We used data for risk factor and mortality trends from systematic analyses of available country data. Relative risks for the effects of individual and multiple risks, and for change in risk after decreases or increases in exposure, were from re-analyses and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies.FindingsIf risk factor targets are achieved, the probability of dying from the four main NCDs between the ages of 30 years and 70 years will decrease by 22% in men and by 19% in women between 2010 and 2025, compared with a decrease of 11% in men and 10% in women under the so-called business-as-usual trends (ie, projections based on current trends with no additional action). Achieving the risk factor targets will delay or prevent more than 37 million deaths (16 million in people aged 30–69 years and 21 million in people aged 70 years or older) from the main NCDs over these 15 years compared with a situation of rising or stagnating risk factor trends. Most of the benefits of achieving the risk factor targets, including 31 million of the delayed or prevented deaths, wil
Danaei G, Lu Y, Singh GM, et al., 2014, Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment, LANCET DIABETES & ENDOCRINOLOGY, Vol: 2, Pages: 634-647, ISSN: 2213-8587
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- Citations: 481
Ezzati M, Danaei G, 2014, High serum cholesterol: a missed risk factor for chronic kidney disease mortality Reply, LANCET DIABETES & ENDOCRINOLOGY, Vol: 2, Pages: 614-614, ISSN: 2213-8587
Fink G, Sudfeld CR, Danaei G, et al., 2014, Scaling-Up Access to Family Planning May Improve Linear Growth and Child Development in Low and Middle Income Countries, PLOS ONE, Vol: 9, ISSN: 1932-6203
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- Citations: 29
Beaglehole R, Bonita R, Ezzati M, et al., 2014, NCD Countdown 2025: accountability for the 25 x 25 NCD mortality reduction target, LANCET, Vol: 384, Pages: 105-107, ISSN: 0140-6736
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- Citations: 42
Danaei G, Lu Y, Hajifathalian K, et al., 2014, Metabolic mediators of body-mass index and cardiovascular risk Reply, LANCET, Vol: 383, Pages: 2043-2044, ISSN: 0140-6736
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- Citations: 11
Micha R, Khatibzadeh S, Shi P, et al., 2014, Global, regional, and national consumption levels of dietary fats and oils in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis including 266 country-specific nutrition surveys, BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 348, ISSN: 0959-535X
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- Citations: 247
Moran AE, Forouzanfar MH, Roth GA, et al., 2014, The Global Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease in 1990 and 2010, CIRCULATION, Vol: 129, Pages: 1493-1501, ISSN: 0009-7322
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- Citations: 448
Moran AE, Forouzanfar MH, Roth GA, et al., 2014, Temporal Trends in Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality in 21 World Regions, 1980 to 2010 The Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study, CIRCULATION, Vol: 129, Pages: 1483-1492, ISSN: 0009-7322
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- Citations: 380
Bennett JE, Blangiardo M, Fecht D, et al., 2014, Vulnerability to the mortality effects of warm temperature in the districts of England and Wales, Nature Climate Change, Vol: 4, Pages: 269-273, ISSN: 1758-678X
Warm temperatures adversely affect disease occurrence and death, in extreme conditions as well as when the temperature changes are more modest1,2. Therefore climate change, which is expected to affect both average temperatures and temperature variability, is likely to impact health even in temperate climates. Climate change risk assessment is enriched if there is information on vulnerability and resilience to effects of temperature. Some studies have analysed socio-demographic characteristics that make individuals vulnerable to adverse effects of temperature1,2,3,4. Less is known about community-level vulnerability. We used geo-coded mortality and environmental data and Bayesian spatial methods to conduct a national small-area analysis of the mortality effects of warm temperature for all 376 districts in England and Wales. In the most vulnerable districts, those in London and south/southeast England, odds of dying from cardiorespiratory causes increased by more than 10% for 1 °C warmer temperature, compared with virtually no effect in the most resilient districts, which were in the far north. A 2 °C warmer summer may result in 1,552 (95% credible interval 1,307–1,762) additional deaths, about one-half of which would occur in 95 districts. The findings enable risk and adaptation analyses to incorporate local vulnerability to warm temperature and to quantify inequality in its effects.
Burnett RT, Pope CA, Ezzati M, et al., 2014, An Integrated Risk Function for Estimating the Global Burden of Disease Attributable to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure, ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES, Vol: 122, Pages: 397-403, ISSN: 0091-6765
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- Citations: 1214
Lu Y, Hajifathalian K, Ezzati M, et al., 2014, Metabolic mediators of the effects of body-mass index, overweight, and obesity on coronary heart disease and stroke: a pooled analysis of 97 prospective cohorts with 1.8 million participants, LANCET, Vol: 383, Pages: 970-983, ISSN: 0140-6736
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- Citations: 687
Moran AE, Tzong KY, Forouzanfar MH, et al., 2014, Variations in ischemic heart disease burden by age, country, and income: the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 study., Glob Heart, Vol: 9, Pages: 91-99
BACKGROUND: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) was the leading cause of disease burden worldwide in 2010. The majority of IHD burden affected middle-income regions. We hypothesized IHD burden may vary among countries, even within the same broad geographic region. METHODS: Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to IHD were estimated at the region level for 7 “super-regions,” 21 regions, and 187 countries using geographically nested models for IHD mortality and prevalent nonfatal IHD (nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, or ischemic heart failure). Acute myocardial infarction, angina, and heart failure disability weights were applied to prevalent cases. Absolute numbers of DALYs and age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 persons were estimated for each region and country in 1990 and 2010. IHD burden for world regions was analyzed by country, income, and age. RESULTS: About two-thirds of 2010 IHD DALYs affected middle-income countries. In the North Africa/Middle East and South Asia regions, which have high IHD burden, more than 29% of men and 24% of women struck by IHD were <50 years old. Age-standardized IHD DALYs decreased in most countries between 1990 and 2010, but increased in a number of countries in the Eastern Europe/Central Asia region (>1,000 per 100,000 increase) and South Asia region (>175 per 100,000). Age-standardized DALYs varied by up to 8-fold among countries, by about 9,000 per 100,000 among middle-income countries, about 7,400 among low-income countries, and about 4,300 among high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of IHD burden in 2010 affected middle-income regions, where younger adults were more likely to develop IHD in regions such as South Asia and North Africa/Middle East. However, IHD burden varied substantially by country within regions, especially among middle-income countries. A global or regional approach to IHD prevention will not be sufficient; research and policy should focus on the highest burd
Sampson UKA, Norman PE, Fowkes FGR, et al., 2014, Global and regional burden of aortic dissection and aneurysms: mortality trends in 21 world regions, 1990 to 2010., Glob Heart, Vol: 9, Pages: 171-180.e10
A comprehensive and systematic assessment of the global burden of aortic aneurysms (AA) has been lacking. Therefore, we estimated AA regional deaths and years of life lost (YLL) in 21 regions worldwide for 1990 and 2010. We used the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2010 study causes of death database and the cause of death ensemble modeling approach to assess levels and trends of AA deaths by age, sex, and GBD region. The global AA death rate per 100,000 population was 2.49 (95% CI: 1.78 to 3.27) in 1990 and 2.78 (95% CI: 2.04 to 3.62) in 2010. In 1990 and 2010, the highest mean death rates were in Australasia and Western Europe: 8.82 (95% CI: 6.96 to 10.79) and 7.69 (95% CI: 6.11 to 9.57) in 1990 and 8.38 (95% CI: 6.48 to 10.86) and 7.68 (95% CI: 6.13 to 9.54) in 2010. YLL rates by GBD region mirrored the mortality rate pattern. Overall, men had higher AA death rates than women: 2.86 (95% CI: 1.90 to 4.22) versus 2.12 (95% CI: 1.33 to 3.00) in 1990 and 3.40 (95% CI: 2.26 to 5.01) versus 2.15 (95% CI: 1.44 to 2.89) in 2010. The relative change in median death rate was +0.22 (95% CI: 0.10 to 0.33) in developed nations versus +0.71 (95% CI: 0.28 to 1.40) in developing nations. The smallest relative changes in median death rate were noted in North America high income, Central Europe, Western Europe, and Australasia, with estimates of +0.07 (95% CI: -0.26 to 0.37), +0.08 (95% CI: -0.02 to 0.23), +0.09 (95% CI: -0.02 to 0.21), and +0.22 (95% CI: -0.08 to 0.46), respectively. The largest increases were in Asia Pacific high income, Southeast Asia, Latin America tropical, Oceania, South Asia, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa. Women rather than men drove the increase in the Asia Pacific high-income region: the relative change in median rates was +2.92 (95% CI: 0.6 to 4.35) versus +1.05 (95% CI: 0.61 to 2.42). In contrast to high-income regions, the observed pattern in developing regions suggests increasing AA burden, wh
Sampson UKA, Norman PE, Fowkes FGR, et al., 2014, Estimation of global and regional incidence and prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysms 1990 to 2010., Glob Heart, Vol: 9, Pages: 159-170
The global burden of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) has not been studied previously. Such information is important given the emergence of cardiovascular diseases in developing countries. We conducted a systematic literature review and estimated the global and regional incidence and prevalence of AAA in 21 world regions by age and sex. The search for prevalence and incidence of AAA using standard clinical and epidemiological terms was conducted using MEDLINE (1950 to 2010), EMBASE (1980 to 2010), AMED (1985 to 2010), CINAHL (1982 to 2010), and LILACS (2008 to 2010). Data abstracted from the systematic review served as priors for Bayesian meta-regression analyses. The analysis drew from 26 high-quality studies to estimate AAA prevalence and incidence. In 1990, the global age-specific prevalence rate per 100,000 ranged from 8.43 (95% CI: 7.03 to 10.14) in the 40 to 44 years age group to 2,422.53 (95% CI: 2,298.63 to 2,562.25) in the 75 to 79 years age group; the corresponding range in 2010 was 7.88 (95% CI: 6.54 to 9.59) to 2,274.82 (95% CI: 2,149.77 to 2,410.17). Prevalence was higher in developed versus developing nations, and the rates within each development stratum decreased between 1990 and 2010. Globally, the age-specific annual incidence rate per 100,000 in 1990 ranged from 0.89 (95% CI: 0.66 to 1.17) in 40 to 44 years age group to 176.08 (95% CI: 162.72 to 190.28) in the 75 to 79 years age group. In 2010, this range was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.61 to 1.11) to 164.57 (95% CI: 152.20 to 178.78). The highest prevalence in 1990 was in Australasia and North America high income regions: 382.65 (95% CI: 356.27 to 410.88) and 300.59 (95% CI: 280.93 to 321.54), respectively. Australasia had the highest prevalence in 2010, although the prevalence decreased to 310.27 (95% CI: 289.01 to 332.94). Regional prevalence increased in Oceania, tropical Latin America, Asia Pacific high income, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Central SSA, South Asia, Western SSA, and Central Asia. AAA
Sampson UKA, Fowkes FGR, McDermott MM, et al., 2014, Global and regional burden of death and disability from peripheral artery disease: 21 world regions, 1990 to 2010., Glob Heart, Vol: 9, Pages: 145-158.e21
A comprehensive and systematic assessment of disability and mortality due to lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) is lacking. Therefore, we estimated PAD deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and years of life lost in 21 regions worldwide for 1990 and 2010. We used the GBD (Global Burden of Diseases 2010) study causes of death database, and the cause of death ensemble modeling approach to assess levels and trends of PAD deaths and years of life lost over time, by age, sex, and region. Assessment of DALYs employed estimates of PAD prevalence from systematic reviews of epidemiologic data using a Bayesian meta-regression method. In 1990, the age-specific PAD death rate per 100,000 population ranged from 0.05 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.03 to 0.09) among those 40 to 44 years old to 16.63 (95% CI: 10.47 to 25.31) among the 80+ years group. In 2010, the corresponding estimates were 0.07 (95% CI: 0.04 to 0.13) and 28.71 (95% CI: 18.3 to 43.06). Death rates increased consistently with age in 1990 and 2010, and the rates in 2010 were higher than they were in 1990 in all age categories. The largest relative change in median death rate of +6.03 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.50 to 11.85) was noted in the Asia Pacific-High Income region and was largely driven by higher rates in women: +17.36 (95% CI: 1.79 to 32.01) versus +1.25 (95% CI: 0.13 to 2.39) in men. The overall relative change in median DALYs was larger in developing nations than in developed nations: 1.15 (95% CI: 0.80 to 1.66) versus 0.77 (95% CI: 0.55 to 1.08). Of note, the overall relative change in median DALYs was higher among both men and women in developing versus developed countries: men: 1.18 (95% CI: 0.82 to 1.65) versus 0.51 (95% CI: 0.30 to 0.81), and women: 1.11 (95% CI: 0.58 to 2.02) versus 1 (95% CI: 0.67 to 1.47). Within developed nations, the overall relative change in median DALY rates was larger in women than in men: +1.00 (95% CI: 0.67 to 1.47) versus +0.5
Bennett DA, Krishnamurthi RV, Barker-Collo S, et al., 2014, The global burden of ischemic stroke: findings of the GBD 2010 study., Glob Heart, Vol: 9, Pages: 107-112
This study sought to summarize the findings of the GBD 2010 (Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors) study for ischemic stroke (IS) and to report the impact of tobacco smoking on IS burden in specific countries. The GBD 2010 searched multiple databases to identify relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. The GBD 2010 analytical tools were used to calculate region-specific IS incidence, mortality, mortality-to-incidence ratio, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost, including 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). In 2010, there were approximately 11,569,000 incident IS events (63% in low- and middle-income countries [LMIC]), approximately 2,835,000 deaths from IS (57% in LMIC), and approximately 39,389,000 DALY lost due to IS (64% in LMIC). From 1990 to 2010, there was a significant increase in global IS burden in terms of absolute number of people with incident IS (37% increase), deaths from IS (21% increase), and DALY lost due to IS (18% increase). Age-standardized IS incidence, DALY lost, mortality, and mortality-to-incidence ratios in high-income countries declined by about 13% (95% UI: 6% to 18%), 34% (95% UI: 16% to 36%), and 37% (95% UI: 19% to 39%), 21% (95% UI: 10% to 27%), respectively. However, in LMIC there was a modest 6% increase in the age-standardized incidence of IS (95% UI: -7% to 18%) despite modest reductions in mortality rates, DALY lost, and mortality-to-incidence ratios. There was considerable variability among country-specific estimates within broad GBD regions. China, Russia, and India were ranked highest in both 1990 and 2010 for IS deaths attributable to tobacco consumption. Although age-standardized IS mortality rates have declined over the last 2 decades, the absolute global burden of IS is increasing, with the bulk of DALY lost in LMIC. Tobacco consumption is an important modifiable risk factor for IS, and in both 1990 and 2010, the top ranked countries for IS deaths that could be attributed to tobacco cons
Krishnamurthi RV, Moran AE, Forouzanfar MH, et al., 2014, The global burden of hemorrhagic stroke: a summary of findings from the GBD 2010 study., Glob Heart, Vol: 9, Pages: 101-106
This report summarizes the findings of the GBD 2010 (Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors) study for hemorrhagic stroke (HS). Multiple databases were searched for relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. The GBD 2010 study provided standardized estimates of the incidence, mortality, mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost for HS (including intracerebral hemorrhage and subarachnoid hemorrhage) by age, sex, and income level (high-income countries [HIC]; low- and middle-income countries [LMIC]) for 21 GBD 2010 regions in 1990, 2005, and 2010. In 2010, there were 5.3 million cases of HS and over 3.0 million deaths due to HS. There was a 47% increase worldwide in the absolute number of HS cases. The largest proportion of HS incident cases (80%) and deaths (63%) occurred in LMIC countries. There were 62.8 million DALY lost (86% in LMIC) due to HS. The overall age-standardized incidence rate of HS per 100,000 person-years in 2010 was 48.41 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 45.44 to 52.13) in HIC and 99.43 (95% CI: 85.37 to 116.28) in LMIC, and 81.52 (95% CI: 72.27 to 92.82) globally. The age-standardized incidence of HS increased by 18.5% worldwide between 1990 and 2010. In HIC, there was a reduction in incidence of HS by 8% (95% CI: 1% to 15%), mortality by 38% (95% CI: 32% to 43%), DALY by 39% (95% CI: 32% to 44%), and MIR by 27% (95% CI: 19% to 35%) in the last 2 decades. In LMIC countries, there was a significant increase in the incidence of HS by 22% (95% CI: 5% to 30%), whereas there was a significant reduction in mortality rates of 23% (95% CI: -3% to 36%), DALY lost of 25% (95% CI: 7% to 38%), and MIR by 36% (95% CI: 16% to 49%). There were significant regional differences in incidence rates of HS, with the highest rates in LMIC regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia, and lowest rates in High Income North America and Western Europe. The worldwide burden of HS has increased over the last 2
Chugh SS, Havmoeller R, Narayanan K, et al., 2014, Worldwide Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation A Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study, CIRCULATION, Vol: 129, Pages: 837-847, ISSN: 0009-7322
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- Citations: 2906
Finucane MM, Paciorek CJ, Danaei G, et al., 2014, Bayesian Estimation of Population-Level Trends in Measures of Health Status, STATISTICAL SCIENCE, Vol: 29, Pages: 18-25, ISSN: 0883-4237
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- Citations: 32
Zhou Z, Dionisio KL, Verissimo TG, et al., 2014, Chemical Characterization and Source Apportionment of Household Fine Particulate Matter in Rural, Peri-urban, and Urban West Africa, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, Vol: 48, Pages: 1343-1351, ISSN: 0013-936X
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- Citations: 37
Feigin VL, Forouzanfar MH, Krishnamurthi R, et al., 2014, Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, LANCET, Vol: 383, Pages: 245-255, ISSN: 0140-6736
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- Citations: 2586
Krishnamurthi RV, Feigin VL, Forouzanfar MH, et al., 2013, Global and regional burden of first-ever ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke during 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH, Vol: 1, Pages: E259-E281, ISSN: 2214-109X
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- Citations: 857
Krishnamurthi RV, Feigin VL, Forouzanfar MH, et al., 2013, Global and regional burden of first-ever ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke during 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010., Lancet Glob Health, Vol: 1, Pages: e259-e281
BACKGROUND: The burden of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke varies between regions and over time. With differences in prognosis, prevalence of risk factors, and treatment strategies, knowledge of stroke pathological type is important for targeted region-specific health-care planning for stroke and could inform priorities for type-specific prevention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the global and regional burden of first-ever ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke during 1990-2010. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase, LILACS, Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, Global Health Database, the WHO library, and regional databases from 1990 to 2012 to identify relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. We applied the GBD 2010 analytical technique (DisMod-MR) to calculate regional and country-specific estimates for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke incidence, mortality, mortality-to-incidence ratio, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost, by age group (aged <75 years, ≥ 75 years, and in total) and country income level (high-income and low-income and middle-income) for 1990, 2005, and 2010. FINDINGS: We included 119 studies (58 from high-income countries and 61 from low-income and middle-income countries). Worldwide, the burden of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke increased significantly between 1990 and 2010 in terms of the absolute number of people with incident ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke (37% and 47% increase, respectively), number of deaths (21% and 20% increase), and DALYs lost (18% and 14% increase). In the past two decades in high-income countries, incidence of ischaemic stroke reduced significantly by 13% (95% CI 6-18), mortality by 37% (19-39), DALYs lost by 34% (16-36), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 21% (10-27). For haemorrhagic stroke, incidence reduced significantly by 19% (1-15), mortality by 38% (32-43), DALYs lost by 39% (32-44), and mortality-t
Paciorek CJ, Stevens GA, Finucane MM, et al., 2013, Children's height and weight in rural and urban populations in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic analysis of population-representative data, LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH, Vol: 1, Pages: E300-E309, ISSN: 2214-109X
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- Citations: 80
Zhou Z, Dionisio KL, Verissimo TG, et al., 2013, Chemical composition and sources of particle pollution in affluent and poor neighborhoods of Accra, Ghana, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 8, ISSN: 1748-9326
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- Citations: 32
Danaei G, Singh GM, Paciorek CJ, et al., 2013, Response to Letter Regarding Article, "The Global Cardiovascular Risk Transition: Associations of Four Metabolic Risk Factors With Macroeconomic Variables in 1980 and 2008", CIRCULATION, Vol: 128, Pages: E378-E378, ISSN: 0009-7322
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