Publications
25 results found
Mazur CM, Offer G, Contestabile MSM, et al., 2018, Comparing the effects of vehicle automation, policy making and changed user preferences on the uptake of electric cars and emissions from transport, Sustainability, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2071-1050
Switching energy demand for transport from liquid fuels to electricity is the most promising way to significantly improve air quality and reduce transport emissions. Previous studies have shown this is possible, that by 2035 the economics of alternative powertrain and energy vectors will have converged. However, they don’t address if the transition is likely or plausible. Using the UK as a case study, we present a systems dynamics model based study informed by transition theory and explore the effects of technology progress, policy making, user preferences and; for the first time, automated vehicles on this transition. We are not trying to predict the future, but to highlight what is necessary in order for different scenarios to become more or less likely. Worryingly we show that current policies with the expected technology progress and expectations of vehicle buyers are insufficient to reach global targets. Faster technology progress, strong financial incentives or a change in vehicle buyer expectations are crucial, but still insufficient. In contrast the biggest switch to alternatively fuelled vehicles could be achieved by the introduction of automated vehicles. The implications will affect policy makers, automotive manufactures, technology developers and broader society.
Contestabile M, Alajaji M, Almubarak B, 2017, Will current electric vehicle policy lead to cost-effective electrification of passenger car transport?, Energy Policy, Vol: 110, Pages: 20-30, ISSN: 0301-4215
Encouraged by the falling cost of batteries, electric vehicle (EV) policy today focuses on expediting electrification, paying comparatively little attention to the cost of the particular type of EVs and charging infrastructure deployed. This paper argues that, due to its strong influence on EV innovation paths, EV policy could be better designed if it paid more attention to cost and technology development risk. In particular, using a model that estimates the incremental cost of different EV and infrastructure mixes over the whole passenger car fleet, we find that EV policy with a strong bias towards long-range battery electric vehicles (BEVs) risks leading to higher costs of electrification in the medium term, possibly exceeding the ability of governments to sustain the necessary incentives until battery cost drops sufficiently. We also find that promoting a balanced mix of BEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) may set the electrification of passenger cars on a lower risk, lower cost path. Examining EV policy in the UK and in California, we find that it is generally not incompatible with achieving balanced mixes of BEVs and PHEVs. However some fine tuning would allow to better balance medium term risks and long term goals.
Foster E, Contestabile M, Blazquez J, et al., 2017, The unstudied barriers to widespread renewable energy deployment: Fossil fuel price responses, Energy Policy, Vol: 103, Pages: 258-264, ISSN: 0301-4215
Renewable energy policy focuses on supporting the deployment of renewable power generators so as to reduce their costs through scale economies and technological learning. It is expected that, once cost parity with fossil fuel generation is achieved, a transition towards renewable power should continue without the need for further renewable energy subsidies. However, this reasoning implicitly assumes that the cost of fossil fuel power generation does not respond to the large scale penetration of renewable power. In this paper we build a standard economic framework to test the validity of this assumption, particularly in the case of coal and gas fired power generation. We find that it is likely that the cost of fossil fuel power generation will respond to the large scale penetration of renewables, thus making the renewable energy transition slower or more costly than anticipated. More analysis is needed in order to be able to quantify this effect, the occurrence of which should be considered in the renewable energy discourse.
Mazur CM, Brandon, Offer, et al., 2015, Understanding the drivers of fleet emission reduction activities of the German car manufacturers, Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, Vol: 16, Pages: 3-21, ISSN: 2210-4224
The current mobility system, dominated by fossil fuel poweredautomobiles, is under increasing pressure due to its environmentalimpact. To address this issue there is a need for a transitionof the system towards one that is more sustainable, including theintroduction of car technologies that allow a decrease in fuel consumptionand the substitution of fossil fuels as primary energysource. Due to the stability of the current automotive industryand the dominance of the internal combustion engine technology,it is expected that the incumbent firms and their activities willplay a crucial role in the transition. Policy makers have thereforeintroduced a variety of policies to encourage the industry to providesuitable solutions.We have conducted amicro-level analysis of howthe threemain German carmanufacturers have changed their activitiesin the field of low emission vehicle technologies in response tonational/international events and policy making. Our analysis suggeststhat policy makers only have limited influence on the typeof disruptive solution that is chosen by these individual companiesand that activities related to solutions that were not familiar to theindividual car manufacturer were mainly induced by internal or external champions. Still, while the existence of regulatory policiesallowed such activities to succeed, on its own it only encouraged theindustry to work on incremental solutions based upon the knowledgealready possessed.
Mazur C, Contestabile M, Offer GJ, et al., 2015, Assessing and comparing German and UK transition policies for electric mobility, ENVIRONMENTAL INNOVATION AND SOCIETAL TRANSITIONS, Vol: 14, Pages: 84-100, ISSN: 2210-4224
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- Citations: 40
Mazur C, Contestabile M, Offer GJ, et al., 2014, Understanding the automotive industry: German OEM behaviour during the last 20 years and its implications
This work presents a study of how the automotive industry has responded in the last 20 years to pressures driven by economic and environmental issues, and by the transition towards electric mobility. Timelines for the major German automotive OEMs are presented to understand the industry's behaviour in the past in order to design suitable policies that are appropriate to reach future goals around the electrification of road transport. Based upon a comparison of the pressures arising in the automotive sector and the companies' behaviour with regard to technology choice and R&D, a set of hypotheses concerning this behaviour is then presented.
Speirs J, Gross R, Candelise C, et al., 2014, Materials Availability for Low Carbon Technologies, Publisher: UKERC
Speirs J, Contestabile M, Houari Y, et al., 2014, The future of lithium availability for electric vehicle batteries, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol: 35, Pages: 183-193, ISSN: 1364-0321
Electric vehicles using lithium batteries could significantly reduce the emissions associated with road vehicle transport. However, the future availability of lithium is uncertain, and the feasibility of manufacturing lithium batteries at sufficient scale has been questioned. The levels of lithium demand growth implied by electric vehicle deployment scenarios is significant, particularly where scenarios are consistent with global GHG reduction targets. This paper examines the question of future lithium availability for the manufacturing of lithium batteries for electric vehicles.In this paper we first examine some of the existing literature in this area, highlighting the levels of future lithium demand previously considered and pointing to the variables that give rise to the range of outcomes in these assessments. We then investigate the ways in which lithium availability is calculated in the literature based on both lithium demand from electric vehicles and lithium supply from both brines and ore.This paper particularly focuses on the key variables needed to make an assessment of future lithium availability. On the demand side, these variables include future market size of electric vehicles, their average battery capacity and the material intensity of the batteries. The key supply variables include global reserve and resource estimates, forecast production and recyclability.We found that the literature informing assumptions regarding the key variables is characterised by significant uncertainty. This uncertainty gives rise to a wide range of estimates for the future demand for lithium based on scenarios consistent with as 50% reduction in global emissions by 2050 at between 184,000 and 989,000 t of lithium per year in 2050. However, lithium production is forecast to grow to between 75,000 and 110,000 t per year by 2020. Under this rate of production growth, it is plausible that lithium supply will meet increasing lithium demand over the coming decades to 2050.
Mazur C, Contestabile M, Offer GJ, et al., 2013, Understanding the automotive industry: German OEM behaviour during the last 20 years and its implications, World Electric Vehicle Journal, Vol: 6, Pages: 1054-1067, ISSN: 2032-6653
This work presents a study of how the automotive industry has responded in the last 20 years to pressures driven by economic and environmental issues, and by the transition towards electric mobility. Timelines for the major German automotive OEMs are presented to understand the industry's behaviour in the past in order to design suitable policies that are appropriate to reach future goals around the electrification of road transport. Based upon a comparison of the pressures arising in the automotive sector and the companies' behaviour with regard to technology choice and R&D, a set of hypotheses concerning this behaviour is then presented.
Mazur C, Contestabile M, Offer G, et al., 2012, Comparing electric mobility policies to transition science: Transition management already in action?, Pages: 123-128, ISSN: 2165-4387
Driven by sustainability issues as well as economic aspects, governments have been creating and applying policies and regulations with the aim of shifting national personal transport towards electric mobility. In this context, transition science offers insights into the relevant socio-technological systems and the process of transition. This paper gives an overview of transition science, and furthermore presents current policy making by the UK and German governments that aim to manage the shift to electric mobility. A comparison of the two different policies with transition science shows that there is an overlap between the applied policy making and theory, especially for the case of the UK. Although both governments do not explicitly follow transition management their actions can be explained with the help of transition science. However, it should be noted that transition science is still a young field which needs to be further developed in order to provide policy makers with tools that enable them to manage such transitions. ©2012 IEEE.
Contestabile M, Offer GJ, Slade R, et al., 2011, Battery electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells and biofuels. Which will be the winner?, Energy and Environmental Science, Vol: 10, Pages: 3754-3772
Contestabile M, 2011, A SD-based analysis of the market for hydrogen fuel cell urban buses, 29th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Gruenewald P, Cockerill T, Contestabile M, et al., 2011, The role of large scale storage in a GB low carbon energy future: Issues and policy challenges, Energy Policy, Vol: 39, Pages: 4807-4815
Offer GJ, Contestabile M, Howey DA, et al., 2011, Techno-economic and behavioural analysis of battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system in the UK, Energy Policy, Vol: 39, Pages: 1939-1950, ISSN: 0301-4215
Contestabile M, 2010, Analysis of the market for diesel PEM fuel cell auxiliary power units onboard long-haul trucks and of its implications for the large-scale adoption of PEM FCs, Energy Policy
Contestabile M, 2010, Techno-economic and market assessment of decentralised hydrogen production technologies for early markets in the UK, 18th World Hydrogen Energy Conference
Offer GJ, Howey DA, Contestabile M, et al., 2010, Comparative analysis of battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system, Energy Policy, Vol: 38, Pages: 24-29
This paper compares battery electric vehicles (BEV) to hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) and hydrogen fuel cell plug-in hybrid vehicles (FCHEV). Qualitative comparisons of technologies and infrastructural requirements, and quantitative comparisons of the lifecycle cost of the powertrain over 100,000 mile are undertaken, accounting for capital and fuel costs. A common vehicle platform is assumed. The 2030 scenario is discussed and compared to a conventional gasoline-fuelled internal combustion engine (ICE) powertrain. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis shows that in 2030 FCEVs could achieve lifecycle cost parity with conventional gasoline vehicles. However, both the BEV and FCHEV have significantly lower lifecycle costs. In the 2030 scenario, powertrain lifecycle costs of FCEVs range from $7360 to $22,580, whereas those for BEVs range from $6460 to $11,420 and FCHEVs, from $4310 to $12,540. All vehicle platforms exhibit significant cost sensitivity to powertrain capital cost. The BEV and FCHEV are relatively insensitive to electricity costs but the FCHEV and FCV are sensitive to hydrogen cost. The BEV and FCHEV are reasonably similar in lifecycle cost and one may offer an advantage over the other depending on driving patterns. A key conclusion is that the best path for future development of FCEVs is the FCHEV.
Contestabile M, 2009, Transition towards sustainable energy systems: the case of hydrogen and fuel cells, Innovation, Markets and Sustainable Energy. The Challenge of Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology, Editors: Pogutz, Russo, Migliavacca, Cheltenham, Publisher: Edward Elgar, ISBN: 9781848441071
Contestabile M, 2006, The possible future development of a market for PEM fuel cell road vehicles - A SD based analysis within an EC funded project, 24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Contestabile M, Morselli M, Paraventi R, et al., 2003, A comparative study on the effect of electrolyte/additives on the performance of ICP383562Li-ion polymer (soft-pack) cells, 11th International Meeting on Lithium Batteries, Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, Pages: 943-947, ISSN: 0378-7753
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- Citations: 50
Contestabile M, Morselli M, Paraventi R, et al., 2003, A comparative study on the effect of electrolyte/additives on the performance of ICP383562Li-ion polymer (soft-pack) cells, Journal of Power Sources, Vol: 119-121, Pages: 943-947, ISSN: 0378-7753
Contestabile M, Panero S, Scrosati B, 2001, A laboratory-scale lithium-ion battery recycling process, JOURNAL OF POWER SOURCES, Vol: 92, Pages: 65-69, ISSN: 0378-7753
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- Citations: 261
Contestabile M, Panero S, Scrosati B, 1999, A laboratory-scale lithium battery recycling process, 4th International Battery Recycling Congress, Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA, Pages: 75-78, ISSN: 0378-7753
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- Citations: 68
Contestabile M, Panero S, Scrosati B, 1999, A laboratory-scale lithium battery recycling process, Journal of Power Sources, Vol: 83, Pages: 75-78, ISSN: 0378-7753
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