29 results found
Hall S, Anable J, Hardy J, et al., 2021, Matching consumer segments to innovative utility business models (vol 6, pg 349, 2021), NATURE ENERGY, Vol: 6, Pages: 684-684, ISSN: 2058-7546
Workman M, Darch G, Dooley K, et al., 2021, Climate policy decision making in contexts of deep uncertainty-from optimisation to robustness, Environmental Science and Policy, Vol: 120, Pages: 127-137, ISSN: 1462-9011
Integrated assessment models are often used to evaluate the role of different technologies in meeting global climate goals. Such models have been criticised for failing to address the deep uncertainties and plurality of values that are fundamental to energy transitions. One consequence is that model scenarios overwhelmingly depend on large-scale carbon dioxide removal to hold warming to below 2 °C.Here we propose an alternative approach using Scenario-Focused Decision Analysis (SFDA) as methods that embrace decision making under deep uncertainty. SFDA can accommodate a range of value sets and perspectives, and most importantly can integrate value-based decision-making in designing climate policy. We specifically consider Robust Decision Making (RDM) as an exemplar of SFDA for developing climate policy.We outline an iterative five-stage framework for RDM using the role of carbon dioxide removal in long-term mitigation pathways as an example. The five steps comprise (i) participatory definition of goals, values, potential policy options and uncertainties; (ii) modelling the performance of policy portfolios across a wide range of future scenarios; (iii) visualisation and identification of portfolio vulnerabilities; (iv) analysis of trade-offs; and (v) development of policy strategies. SFDA, and specifically RDM, provide untapped opportunities for diverse actors to explore alternative mitigation pathways and evaluate the robustness of climate policy choices through “deliberation with analysis”. In relation to carbon dioxide removal methods, RDM provides a framework for evaluating their potential for safely meeting climate goals in a societally acceptable manner.
Hall S, Anable J, Hardy J, et al., 2021, Innovative energy business models appeal to specific consumer groups but may exacerbate existing inequalities for the disengaged, NATURE ENERGY, Vol: 6, Pages: 337-338, ISSN: 2058-7546
Hall S, Anable J, Hardy J, et al., 2021, Matching consumer segments to innovative utility business models, NATURE ENERGY, Vol: 6, Pages: 349-361, ISSN: 2058-7546
Bevan LD, Colley T, Workman M, 2020, Climate change strategic narratives in the United Kingdom: Emergency, Extinction, Effectiveness, ENERGY RESEARCH & SOCIAL SCIENCE, Vol: 69, ISSN: 2214-6296
O'Beirne T, Battersby F, Mallett A, et al., 2020, The UK net-zero target: Insights into procedural justice for greenhouse gas removal, Environmental Science and Policy, Vol: 112, Pages: 264-274, ISSN: 1462-9011
Greenhouse gas removal (GGR) is increasingly seen as a key dimension of national and international climate policy.The need to deploy a portfolio of GGR technologies in order to decarbonise sectors with the ‘hardest-to-abate’emissions, particularly to achieve net-zero emissions targets, has become increasingly evident in recent years. In May2019, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) published a report outlining a pathway to net-zero emissions in theUK, which comprised significant contributions from engineered and land-based removals. The target of net-zeroemissions has since been enshrined in UK legislation, meaning that GGR will likely be part of the UK’s climatestrategy. Plans for GGR deployment will therefore need to be set in motion in the short-term, in order to align with thetimeframe proposed by the CCC. Despite a growing body of research examining the role governance could and shouldplay in GGR development and deployment, there is a gap in the literature relating to the social implications of removalactivities. In particular, the roles of procedural justice (PJ) and social legitimacy (SL) have not been closely examined.This study comprises an analysis of relevant legislation, combined with a series of interviews conducted in thecommunity of Selby (a proposed location for BECCS development) in order to investigate PJ and SL in the context ofGGR. It is found that the existing legal framework operates PJ as a ‘tick-the-box’ exercise, failing to engage a widerange of interested stakeholders or to promote meaningful engagements. Moreover, the PJ landscape for GGR isunplanned and adapted from existing legislation and cannot meet the unique needs of this novel activity, such as theneed to engage the wider national public given their interest in climate change mitigation. Research in Selbycorroborates these findings, revealing a range of issues with engagement procedures, including disinterest ordisillusionment with processes, a lack of
Mirumachi N, Sawas A, Workman M, 2020, Unveiling the security concerns of low carbon development: climate security analysis of the undesirable and unintended effects of mitigation and adaptation, CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, Vol: 12, Pages: 97-109, ISSN: 1756-5529
Hall S, Mazur C, Hardy J, et al., 2020, Prioritising business model innovation: What needs to change in the United Kingdom energy system to grow low carbon entrepreneurship?, Energy Research & Social Science, Vol: 60, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2214-6296
‘What needs to change in the United Kingdom energy system, to allow low carbon business models to thrive?’ Earlier work by the authors has reported that up to £21bn of new financial value could be available to electricity utilities by 2050, in a low-carbon UK power sector. This represents up to 30% of future electricity markets. To capture new value, electricity utility business models need to evolve. This research used an elite ‘decision theatre’ method, in the UK, USA, and Europe, to decide on the most important changes required to the energy system to enable new [low-carbon] utility business models to thrive. The results show that there is substantial agreement on the five requirements for change, these are: (1) Clear national heat and electric transport strategies; (2) Commitment to sufficient carbon prices; (3) Simpler, principles-based regulation across the energy value chain; (4) Accessible markets for flexibility and other energy services; and (5) Managing consumers’ exposure to risk. These were the changes that participants considered most important to foster low-carbon utility business model innovation. This work suggests focusing on business model innovation as opposed to technological innovation could accelerate decarbonisation, and extends the use of the Decision Theatre method in social science energy research.
Workman M, Dooley K, Lomax G, et al., 2020, Decision making in contexts of deep uncertainty - An alternative approach for long-term climate policy, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY, Vol: 103, Pages: 77-84, ISSN: 1462-9011
Gambhir A, Cronin C, Matsumae E, et al., 2019, Using futures analysis to develop resilient climate change mitigation strategies, Grantham Briefing Paper, Publisher: Imperial College London, 33
Mazur C, Hall S, Hardy J, et al., 2019, Technology is not a barrier: A survey of energy system technologies required for innovative electricity business models driving the low carbon energy revolution, Energies, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1996-1073
Energy system decarbonisation and changing consumer behaviours will create and destroy new markets in the electric power sector. This means that the energy industry will have to adapt their business models in order to capture these pools of value. Recent work explores how changes to the utility business model that include digital, decentralised or service-based offers could both disrupt the market and accelerate low carbon transitions. However, it is unclear whether these business models are technologically feasible. To answer this question, we undertook an expert panel study to determine the readiness levels of key enabling technologies. The result is an analysis of what technologies may hinder electricity business model innovation and where more research or development is necessary. The study shows that none of the business models that are compatible with a low carbon power sector are facing technology barriers that cannot be overcome, but there is still work to be done in the domain of system integration. We conclude that, especially in the field of energy system coordination and operation, there is a need for comprehensive demonstration trials which can iteratively combine and test information and communications technology (ICT) solutions. This form of innovation support would require a new approach to energy system trials.
Platt D, Workman M, Hall S, 2018, A novel approach to assessing the commercial opportunities for greenhouse gas removal technology value chains: Developing the case for a negative emissions credit in the UK, JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION, Vol: 203, Pages: 1003-1018, ISSN: 0959-6526
Hardy JJE, Hall S, Sophie-Wegner M, et al., 2017, Valuing energy futures; a comparative analysis of value pools across UK energy system scenarios, Applied Energy, Vol: 206, Pages: 815-828, ISSN: 0306-2619
Electricity markets in liberalised nations are composed primarily of private firms that make strategic decisions about how to secure competitive advantage. Energy transitions, driven by decarbonisation targets and technological innovation, will create new markets and destroy old ones in a re-configuration of the power sector. This research suggests that by 2050 up to 21 bnGBP per year of new financial value is available in the UK electricity system, and that depending on scenario, these new values represent up to 31% of the entire electricity sector. To service these markets business model innovation and new firm strategies are needed in electric power provision. Energy scenarios can inform strategic decisions over business model adaptation, but to date scenario modelling has not directly addressed firm strategy and behaviour. This is due in part to neo-classical assumptions of firm rationality and perfect foresight. This research adopts a resource based view of the firm rooted in evolutionary economics to argue that quantifying the relative size of the markets created and destroyed by energy transitions can provide useful insight into firm behaviour and innovation policy.
Bushell S, Buisson GS, Workman M, et al., 2017, Strategic narratives in climate change: Towards a unifying narrative to address the action gap on climate change, ENERGY RESEARCH & SOCIAL SCIENCE, Vol: 28, Pages: 39-49, ISSN: 2214-6296
Foster E, Contestabile M, Blazquez J, et al., 2017, The unstudied barriers to widespread renewable energy deployment: Fossil fuel price responses, Energy Policy, Vol: 103, Pages: 258-264, ISSN: 0301-4215
Renewable energy policy focuses on supporting the deployment of renewable power generators so as to reduce their costs through scale economies and technological learning. It is expected that, once cost parity with fossil fuel generation is achieved, a transition towards renewable power should continue without the need for further renewable energy subsidies. However, this reasoning implicitly assumes that the cost of fossil fuel power generation does not respond to the large scale penetration of renewable power. In this paper we build a standard economic framework to test the validity of this assumption, particularly in the case of coal and gas fired power generation. We find that it is likely that the cost of fossil fuel power generation will respond to the large scale penetration of renewables, thus making the renewable energy transition slower or more costly than anticipated. More analysis is needed in order to be able to quantify this effect, the occurrence of which should be considered in the renewable energy discourse.
Kruitwagen L, Madani K, Caldecott B, et al., 2017, Game theory and corporate governance: conditions for effective stewardship of companies exposed to climate change risks, JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE FINANCE & INVESTMENT, Vol: 7, Pages: 14-36, ISSN: 2043-0795
Metz A, Darch G, Workman M, 2016, Realising a climate-resilient UK electricity and gas system, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Energy, Vol: 169, Pages: 30-43, ISSN: 1751-4223
The risks presented by climate change mean that there is a need to future-proof the UK's energy (electricity and natural gas) infrastructure. The scale of investment required is estimated at more than £200 billion by 2030. Although there are a variety of funding sources available, increasing proportions of infrastructure investment are now being funded by the private sector. Therefore, it will be necessary to find ways to incentivise private investors to accommodate for adaptation requirements in their decision-making processes. Research was undertaken to explore the UK energy infrastructure under the following three main lenses. (a) What technical aspects of energy infrastructure need to consider the effects of climate change? (b) What investment is required in the near future to adapt to climate change? (c) What types of policy could create reliable signals for investment in climate change adaptation? This paper presents key findings and considerations for policy covering the three questions above: (a) there are data gaps, interdependencies not effectively assessed and techniques available but not yet adopted; (b) the investment community suffers from a lack of climate change expertise and a short-term mindset; and (c) there is a need for a clearer policy vision and greater collaboration.
Bushell S, Colley T, Workman M, 2015, A unified narrative for climate change, Nature Climate Change, Vol: 5, Pages: 971-973, ISSN: 1758-6798
Lomax G, Workman M, Lenton T, et al., 2015, Reframing the policy approach to greenhouse gas removal technologies, ENERGY POLICY, Vol: 78, Pages: 125-136, ISSN: 0301-4215
Hayes-Labruto L, Schillebeeckx SJD, Workman M, et al., 2013, Contrasting Perspectives on China's Rare Earth Policies: Reframing the Debate through a Stakeholder Lens, Energy Policy
This article critically compares China’s rare earth policy with perspectives upheld in the rest of the world (ROW). We introduce rare earth elements and their importance for energy and present how China and the ROW are framing the policy debate. We find strongly dissonant views with regards to motives for foreign direct investment, China’s two-tiered pricing structure and its questionable innovation potential. Using the metaphor of “China Inc.”, we compare the Chinese government to a socially responsible corporation that aims to balance the needs of its internal stakeholders with the demands from a resource-dependent world. We find that China’s internal stakeholders have more power and legitimacy in the REE debate than the ROW and reconceptualise various possible mitigation strategies that could change current international policy and market dynamics. As such, we aim to reframe the perspectives that seem to govern the West and argue in favour of policy formation that explicitly acknowledges China’s triple bottom line ambitions and encourages the ROW to engage with China in a more nuanced manner.
Shah N, McGlashen N, 2012, Can we still avoid dangerous climate change - Chapter on Negative Emissions Technologies, Publisher: Springer
“The AVOID programme integrates, quantifies and communicates”Governments are faced with decisions regarding our future climate. The science is telling them that the climate is unequivocally changing, that the impacts will be felt across the world, and that something must be done....But to take appropriate measures, Governments need to understand the consequences of such measures and they need to do so based on sound scientific evidence. There are three core questions that need addressing:• What level of climate change is potentially dangerous? • What emission reductions will avoid dangerous climate change? • What is the technical and economic feasibility of such emission reductions?
McGlashan NR, Shah N, Caldecott B, et al., 2012, High Level Techno-Economic Assessment of Negative Emissions Technologies, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, Vol: 90, Pages: 501-510
McGlashan N, Workman M, Caldcott B, et al., 2012, Negative Emission Technologies
Workman M, McGlashan NR, Chalmers H, et al., 2011, An assessment of options for CO2 removal from the atmosphere, Energy Procedia, Vol: 4, Pages: 2877-2884
Strapasson A, Dean C, Shah N, et al., 2011, Negative CO2 Emissions Technology: Database and Recommendation, Publisher: Imperial College London
McGlashan N, Shah N, 2010, The Potential for the Deployment of Negative Emissions Technologies in the UK., The Potential for the Deployment of Negative Emissions Technologies in the UK. AVOID / Workstream 2 / Deliverable 1 / Report 18 [ AV/WS2/D1/18 ] pp37.
Lee MWE, Bray MJ, Workman M, et al., 2000, Coastal shingle tracing: A case study using the (Electronic Tracer System) (ETS), Annual Conference of the British-Geomorphological-Research-Group (BGRG), Publisher: JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD, Pages: 413-435
Voulgaris G, Workman M, Collins MB, 1999, Measurement techniques of shingle transport in the nearshore zone, JOURNAL OF COASTAL RESEARCH, Vol: 15, Pages: 1030-1039, ISSN: 0749-0208
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