Publications
41 results found
Harvey V, Workman M, Heap R, 2023, Developing carbon dioxide removal policy and anticipatory perspectives in the United Kingdom and United States, ENERGY RESEARCH & SOCIAL SCIENCE, Vol: 102, ISSN: 2214-6296
Kirkpatrick L, Adjiman C, ApSimon H, et al., 2023, Systems thinking for the transition to zero pollution, Systems thinking for the transition to zero pollution, www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham Institute, 40
Systems approaches are vital for coordinating decision-making in the face of complex issues because they provide the whole picture view needed to avoid negative unintended consequences and to generate genuine benefits. This paper explains how systems thinking can be used to address environmental pollution and support decision-makers in finding solutions.
Aczel M, Heap R, Workman M, et al., 2022, Anticipatory regulation: lessons from fracking and insights for Greenhouse Gas Removal innovation and governance, Energy Research and Social Science, Vol: 90, ISSN: 2214-6296
The UK has incorporated a net-zero emissions target into national legislation. A range of Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) options will likely play a key role in the government's strategy toward meeting this goal. Governance frameworks will need to be developed to support GGR development and manage the potential impacts, particularly those on the diverse local communities where the various options will be deployed.This research examines the UK's experience with development and regulation of shale gas - using the technologies of hydraulic fracturing combined with horizontal drilling - with a focus on governance and the implications for the development and widespread deployment of GGR. We evaluate the approach used against the principles of good governance, which emphasizes the critical role that local communities and publics play in deployment.The UK's top-down governance of shale gas highlights the risk of regulation driven by assumptions about national and local need, value and a lack of transparency or meaningful stakeholder participation in decision-making. The use of existing legislative frameworks for conventional fossil fuel extraction proved inadequate to address unanticipated consequences such as induced seismicity. Moreover, the support for unconventional hydrocarbons in UK energy policy appeared inconsistent with the goal of meeting greenhouse gas targets and passing significant legislation in 2019 to bring carbon emissions to net-zero.To gain social acceptance at the local level, deployment of new technologies needs to be evaluated from a variety of framings and viewpoints. Where new technologies or practices are deployed, such as fracking and GGR, the knowledge and understanding of the impacts - a fundamental principle of good governance - may be less certain or more contested. Early inclusion and participation of local communities would allow issues of concern to inform how trials are undertaken and regulation designed. This anticipatory and participatory a
Hall S, Workman M, Hardy J, et al., 2022, Doing business model innovation for sustainability transitions — bringing in strategic foresight and human centred design, Energy Research & Social Science, Vol: 90, Pages: 102685-102685, ISSN: 2214-6296
This paper brings together socio-technical transitions theory with strategic foresight and human centred design. The aim is to bring in new methods for analysing the business model element of sustainability transitions. We propose a process for doing business model innovation work. Business models have become a key area of focus, particularly in the energy sector. Recent work shows how the development of new business models co-evolves with elements of the energy system, either driving technological innovation, changing user practices or placing pressure on the institutional or policy regime. At the same time, there is no recognised process for business model research aimed at transition management. It is time therefore to propose a more formalised and theoretically grounded approach to business model innovation work. We use this contribution to synthesise the lessons of a four-year research project centred on energy utility business models with industrial, commercial and government stakeholders. We describe the process adopted, and insights this process generated. We seek to establish this process in the literature, invite others to utilise it, adapt it and critique it.
Daruwala A, Workman M, Hardy J, 2022, Identifying and unlocking the value from heat decarbonisation in the United Kingdom, Energy Research and Social Science, Vol: 89, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 2214-6296
Decarbonisation of heat is critical to the UK achieving its net zero emissions target by 2050. With the low rate of asset turn-over in the heat sector, decarbonisation needs to start immediately. However, the risk and uncertainty regarding the most ‘cost optimal pathway’ across the range of technology options and the lack of a holistic UK heat policy is failing to provide a clear directive as to how market actors should address UK heat decarbonisation. This research applies a novel commercial perspective to provide additional insight beyond that which traditional cost optimal tools are able to offer. The value pool approach is used to determine the magnitude of economic opportunities and map their resilience across multiple net zero scenarios in decadal timesteps to 2050. Our work indicates that by 2050 an annual value of £28 billion potentially exists in decarbonising heat in the UK. Realising this value, however, is subject to significant path-dependency. Unlocking the value will require substantial additional policy and regulatory support, business model innovation and unprecedented levels of consumer engagement and protection in the history of the energy sector.
Workman M, Platt D, Reddivari U, et al., 2022, Establishing a large-scale Greenhouse Gas Removal sector in the United Kingdom by 2030: First mover dilemmas, ENERGY RESEARCH & SOCIAL SCIENCE, Vol: 88, ISSN: 2214-6296
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- Citations: 2
Liu L, Workman M, Hayes S, 2022, Net Zero and the potential of consumer data-United Kingdom energy sector case study: The need for cross-sectoral best data practice principles, ENERGY POLICY, Vol: 163, ISSN: 0301-4215
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- Citations: 2
Battersby F, Heap RJJ, Gray ACC, et al., 2022, The Role of Corporates in Governing Carbon Dioxide Removal: Outlining a Research Agenda, FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE, Vol: 4
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- Citations: 3
Radovic DR, Kruitwagen L, Witt CSD, et al., 2022, Revealing Robust Oil and Gas Company Macro-Strategies using Deep Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning., CoRR, Vol: abs/2211.11043
Walton JL, Levontin P, Barons M, et al., 2021, Communicating climate risk: a toolkit, Publisher: Cambridge Open Engage
The Communicating Climate Risk toolkit is the result of interdisciplinary collaboration across the physical sciences, social sciences, and arts and humanities, incorporating input from policy and other stakeholders. It identifies key challenges in communicating climate science, both to support robust decision-making, and to inform wider societal shifts using effective climate storytelling. It offers lessons, recommendations, and tools to address these challenges. Topics covered include varying conceptions of uncertainty and risk, best practice in visualising uncertainty data, and constructive critique of AR6 WG1 SPM methodologies for communicating model uncertainty.
Radovic D, Kruitwagen L, Witt CSD, et al., 2021, Revealing robust oil and gas company macro-strategies using deep multi-agent reinforcement learning, Joule, ISSN: 2542-4351
The energy transition potentially poses an existential risk for majorinternational oil companies (IOCs) if they fail to adapt to low-carbon businessmodels. Projections of energy futures, however, are met with divergingassumptions on its scale and pace, causing disagreement among IOCdecision-makers and their stakeholders over what the business model of anincumbent fossil fuel company should be. In this work, we used deep multi-agentreinforcement learning to solve an energy systems wargame wherein playerssimulate IOC decision-making, including hydrocarbon and low-carbon investmentsdecisions, dividend policies, and capital structure measures, through anuncertain energy transition to explore critical and non-linear governancequestions, from leveraged transitions to reserve replacements. Adversarial playfacilitated by state-of-the-art algorithms revealed decision-making strategiesrobust to energy transition uncertainty and against multiple IOCs. In allgames, robust strategies emerged in the form of low-carbon business models as aresult of early transition-oriented movement. IOCs adopting such strategiesoutperformed business-as-usual and delayed transition strategies regardless ofhydrocarbon demand projections. In addition to maximizing value, thesestrategies benefit greater society by contributing substantial amounts ofcapital necessary to accelerate the global low-carbon energy transition. Ourfindings point towards the need for lenders and investors to effectivelymobilize transition-oriented finance and engage with IOCs to ensure responsiblereallocation of capital towards low-carbon business models that would enablethe emergence of fossil fuel incumbents as future low-carbon leaders.
Workman M, Darch G, Dooley K, et al., 2021, Climate policy decision making in contexts of deep uncertainty-from optimisation to robustness, Environmental Science and Policy, Vol: 120, Pages: 127-137, ISSN: 1462-9011
Integrated assessment models are often used to evaluate the role of different technologies in meeting global climate goals. Such models have been criticised for failing to address the deep uncertainties and plurality of values that are fundamental to energy transitions. One consequence is that model scenarios overwhelmingly depend on large-scale carbon dioxide removal to hold warming to below 2 °C.Here we propose an alternative approach using Scenario-Focused Decision Analysis (SFDA) as methods that embrace decision making under deep uncertainty. SFDA can accommodate a range of value sets and perspectives, and most importantly can integrate value-based decision-making in designing climate policy. We specifically consider Robust Decision Making (RDM) as an exemplar of SFDA for developing climate policy.We outline an iterative five-stage framework for RDM using the role of carbon dioxide removal in long-term mitigation pathways as an example. The five steps comprise (i) participatory definition of goals, values, potential policy options and uncertainties; (ii) modelling the performance of policy portfolios across a wide range of future scenarios; (iii) visualisation and identification of portfolio vulnerabilities; (iv) analysis of trade-offs; and (v) development of policy strategies. SFDA, and specifically RDM, provide untapped opportunities for diverse actors to explore alternative mitigation pathways and evaluate the robustness of climate policy choices through “deliberation with analysis”. In relation to carbon dioxide removal methods, RDM provides a framework for evaluating their potential for safely meeting climate goals in a societally acceptable manner.
Hall S, Anable J, Hardy J, et al., 2021, Matching consumer segments to innovative utility business models (vol 6, pg 349, 2021), NATURE ENERGY, Vol: 6, Pages: 684-684, ISSN: 2058-7546
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- Citations: 1
Hall S, Anable J, Hardy J, et al., 2021, Innovative energy business models appeal to specific consumer groups but may exacerbate existing inequalities for the disengaged, NATURE ENERGY, Vol: 6, Pages: 337-338, ISSN: 2058-7546
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- Citations: 1
Hall S, Anable J, Hardy J, et al., 2021, Matching consumer segments to innovative utility business models, NATURE ENERGY, Vol: 6, Pages: 349-361, ISSN: 2058-7546
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- Citations: 18
Bevan LD, Colley T, Workman M, 2020, Climate change strategic narratives in the United Kingdom: Emergency, Extinction, Effectiveness, ENERGY RESEARCH & SOCIAL SCIENCE, Vol: 69, ISSN: 2214-6296
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- Citations: 28
O'Beirne T, Battersby F, Mallett A, et al., 2020, The UK net-zero target: Insights into procedural justice for greenhouse gas removal, Environmental Science and Policy, Vol: 112, Pages: 264-274, ISSN: 1462-9011
Greenhouse gas removal (GGR) is increasingly seen as a key dimension of national and international climate policy.The need to deploy a portfolio of GGR technologies in order to decarbonise sectors with the ‘hardest-to-abate’emissions, particularly to achieve net-zero emissions targets, has become increasingly evident in recent years. In May2019, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) published a report outlining a pathway to net-zero emissions in theUK, which comprised significant contributions from engineered and land-based removals. The target of net-zeroemissions has since been enshrined in UK legislation, meaning that GGR will likely be part of the UK’s climatestrategy. Plans for GGR deployment will therefore need to be set in motion in the short-term, in order to align with thetimeframe proposed by the CCC. Despite a growing body of research examining the role governance could and shouldplay in GGR development and deployment, there is a gap in the literature relating to the social implications of removalactivities. In particular, the roles of procedural justice (PJ) and social legitimacy (SL) have not been closely examined.This study comprises an analysis of relevant legislation, combined with a series of interviews conducted in thecommunity of Selby (a proposed location for BECCS development) in order to investigate PJ and SL in the context ofGGR. It is found that the existing legal framework operates PJ as a ‘tick-the-box’ exercise, failing to engage a widerange of interested stakeholders or to promote meaningful engagements. Moreover, the PJ landscape for GGR isunplanned and adapted from existing legislation and cannot meet the unique needs of this novel activity, such as theneed to engage the wider national public given their interest in climate change mitigation. Research in Selbycorroborates these findings, revealing a range of issues with engagement procedures, including disinterest ordisillusionment with processes, a lack of
Mirumachi N, Sawas A, Workman M, 2020, Unveiling the security concerns of low carbon development: climate security analysis of the undesirable and unintended effects of mitigation and adaptation, CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, Vol: 12, Pages: 97-109, ISSN: 1756-5529
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- Citations: 24
Hall S, Mazur C, Hardy J, et al., 2020, Prioritising business model innovation: What needs to change in the United Kingdom energy system to grow low carbon entrepreneurship?, Energy Research & Social Science, Vol: 60, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2214-6296
‘What needs to change in the United Kingdom energy system, to allow low carbon business models to thrive?’ Earlier work by the authors has reported that up to £21bn of new financial value could be available to electricity utilities by 2050, in a low-carbon UK power sector. This represents up to 30% of future electricity markets. To capture new value, electricity utility business models need to evolve. This research used an elite ‘decision theatre’ method, in the UK, USA, and Europe, to decide on the most important changes required to the energy system to enable new [low-carbon] utility business models to thrive. The results show that there is substantial agreement on the five requirements for change, these are: (1) Clear national heat and electric transport strategies; (2) Commitment to sufficient carbon prices; (3) Simpler, principles-based regulation across the energy value chain; (4) Accessible markets for flexibility and other energy services; and (5) Managing consumers’ exposure to risk. These were the changes that participants considered most important to foster low-carbon utility business model innovation. This work suggests focusing on business model innovation as opposed to technological innovation could accelerate decarbonisation, and extends the use of the Decision Theatre method in social science energy research.
Workman M, Dooley K, Lomax G, et al., 2020, Decision making in contexts of deep uncertainty - An alternative approach for long-term climate policy, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY, Vol: 103, Pages: 77-84, ISSN: 1462-9011
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- Citations: 38
Gambhir A, Cronin C, Matsumae E, et al., 2019, Using futures analysis to develop resilient climate change mitigation strategies, Grantham Briefing Paper, Publisher: Imperial College London, 33
Mazur C, Hall S, Hardy J, et al., 2019, Technology is not a barrier: A survey of energy system technologies required for innovative electricity business models driving the low carbon energy revolution, Energies, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1996-1073
Energy system decarbonisation and changing consumer behaviours will create and destroy new markets in the electric power sector. This means that the energy industry will have to adapt their business models in order to capture these pools of value. Recent work explores how changes to the utility business model that include digital, decentralised or service-based offers could both disrupt the market and accelerate low carbon transitions. However, it is unclear whether these business models are technologically feasible. To answer this question, we undertook an expert panel study to determine the readiness levels of key enabling technologies. The result is an analysis of what technologies may hinder electricity business model innovation and where more research or development is necessary. The study shows that none of the business models that are compatible with a low carbon power sector are facing technology barriers that cannot be overcome, but there is still work to be done in the domain of system integration. We conclude that, especially in the field of energy system coordination and operation, there is a need for comprehensive demonstration trials which can iteratively combine and test information and communications technology (ICT) solutions. This form of innovation support would require a new approach to energy system trials.
Platt D, Workman M, Hall S, 2018, A novel approach to assessing the commercial opportunities for greenhouse gas removal technology value chains: Developing the case for a negative emissions credit in the UK, JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION, Vol: 203, Pages: 1003-1018, ISSN: 0959-6526
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- Citations: 11
Schillebeeckx SJD, Workman M, Dean C, 2018, Scarcity in the twenty-first century: how the resource nexus affects management, MANAGING NATURAL RESOURCES: ORGANIZATIONAL STRATEGY, BEHAVIOUR AND DYNAMICS, Editors: George, Schillebeeckx, Publisher: EDWARD ELGAR PUBLISHING LTD, Pages: 35-60, ISBN: 978-1-78643-571-2
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- Citations: 2
Hardy JJE, Hall S, Sophie-Wegner M, et al., 2017, Valuing energy futures; a comparative analysis of value pools across UK energy system scenarios, Applied Energy, Vol: 206, Pages: 815-828, ISSN: 0306-2619
Electricity markets in liberalised nations are composed primarily of private firms that make strategic decisions about how to secure competitive advantage. Energy transitions, driven by decarbonisation targets and technological innovation, will create new markets and destroy old ones in a re-configuration of the power sector. This research suggests that by 2050 up to 21 bnGBP per year of new financial value is available in the UK electricity system, and that depending on scenario, these new values represent up to 31% of the entire electricity sector. To service these markets business model innovation and new firm strategies are needed in electric power provision. Energy scenarios can inform strategic decisions over business model adaptation, but to date scenario modelling has not directly addressed firm strategy and behaviour. This is due in part to neo-classical assumptions of firm rationality and perfect foresight. This research adopts a resource based view of the firm rooted in evolutionary economics to argue that quantifying the relative size of the markets created and destroyed by energy transitions can provide useful insight into firm behaviour and innovation policy.
Bushell S, Buisson GS, Workman M, et al., 2017, Strategic narratives in climate change: Towards a unifying narrative to address the action gap on climate change, ENERGY RESEARCH & SOCIAL SCIENCE, Vol: 28, Pages: 39-49, ISSN: 2214-6296
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- Citations: 59
Foster E, Contestabile M, Blazquez J, et al., 2017, The unstudied barriers to widespread renewable energy deployment: Fossil fuel price responses, Energy Policy, Vol: 103, Pages: 258-264, ISSN: 0301-4215
Renewable energy policy focuses on supporting the deployment of renewable power generators so as to reduce their costs through scale economies and technological learning. It is expected that, once cost parity with fossil fuel generation is achieved, a transition towards renewable power should continue without the need for further renewable energy subsidies. However, this reasoning implicitly assumes that the cost of fossil fuel power generation does not respond to the large scale penetration of renewable power. In this paper we build a standard economic framework to test the validity of this assumption, particularly in the case of coal and gas fired power generation. We find that it is likely that the cost of fossil fuel power generation will respond to the large scale penetration of renewables, thus making the renewable energy transition slower or more costly than anticipated. More analysis is needed in order to be able to quantify this effect, the occurrence of which should be considered in the renewable energy discourse.
Kruitwagen L, Madani K, Caldecott B, et al., 2017, Game theory and corporate governance: conditions for effective stewardship of companies exposed to climate change risks, JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE FINANCE & INVESTMENT, Vol: 7, Pages: 14-36, ISSN: 2043-0795
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- Citations: 13
Metz A, Darch G, Workman M, 2016, Realising a climate-resilient UK electricity and gas system, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Energy, Vol: 169, Pages: 30-43, ISSN: 1751-4223
The risks presented by climate change mean that there is a need to future-proof the UK's energy (electricity and natural gas) infrastructure. The scale of investment required is estimated at more than £200 billion by 2030. Although there are a variety of funding sources available, increasing proportions of infrastructure investment are now being funded by the private sector. Therefore, it will be necessary to find ways to incentivise private investors to accommodate for adaptation requirements in their decision-making processes. Research was undertaken to explore the UK energy infrastructure under the following three main lenses. (a) What technical aspects of energy infrastructure need to consider the effects of climate change? (b) What investment is required in the near future to adapt to climate change? (c) What types of policy could create reliable signals for investment in climate change adaptation? This paper presents key findings and considerations for policy covering the three questions above: (a) there are data gaps, interdependencies not effectively assessed and techniques available but not yet adopted; (b) the investment community suffers from a lack of climate change expertise and a short-term mindset; and (c) there is a need for a clearer policy vision and greater collaboration.
Bushell S, Colley T, Workman M, 2015, A unified narrative for climate change, Nature Climate Change, Vol: 5, Pages: 971-973, ISSN: 1758-6798
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