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@article{Brisson:2020:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30068-4,
author = {Brisson, M and Kim, JJ and Canfell, K and Drolet, M and Gingras, G and Burger, EA and Martin, D and Simms, KT and Benard, E and Boily, M-C and Sy, S and Regan, C and Keane, A and Caruana, M and Nguyen, DTN and Smith, MA and Laprise, J-F and Jit, M and Alary, M and Bray, F and Fidarova, E and Elsheikh, F and Bloem, PJN and Broutet, N and Hutubessy, R},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30068-4},
journal = {The Lancet},
pages = {575--590},
title = {Impact of HPV vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30068-4},
volume = {395},
year = {2020}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundThe WHO Director-General has issued a call for action to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To help inform global efforts, we modelled potential human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical screening scenarios in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) to examine the feasibility and timing of elimination at different thresholds, and to estimate the number of cervical cancer cases averted on the path to elimination.MethodsThe WHO Cervical Cancer Elimination Modelling Consortium (CCEMC), which consists of three independent transmission-dynamic models identified by WHO according to predefined criteria, projected reductions in cervical cancer incidence over time in 78 LMICs for three standardised base-case scenarios: girls-only vaccination; girls-only vaccination and once-lifetime screening; and girls-only vaccination and twice-lifetime screening. Girls were vaccinated at age 9 years (with a catch-up to age 14 years), assuming 90% coverage and 100% lifetime protection against HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58. Cervical screening involved HPV testing once or twice per lifetime at ages 35 years and 45 years, with uptake increasing from 45% (2023) to 90% (2045 onwards). The elimination thresholds examined were an average age-standardised cervical cancer incidence of four or fewer cases per 100000 women-years and ten or fewer cases per 100000 women-years, and an 85% or greater reduction in incidence. Sensitivity analyses were done, varying vaccination and screening strategies and assumptions. We summarised results using the median (range) of model predictions.FindingsGirls-only HPV vaccination was predicted to reduce the median age-standardised cervical cancer incidence in LMICs from 19·8 (range 19·4–19·8) to 2·1 (2·0–2·6) cases per 100000 women-years over the next century (89·4% [86·2–90·1] reduction), and to avert 61·0 million
AU  - Brisson,M
AU  - Kim,JJ
AU  - Canfell,K
AU  - Drolet,M
AU  - Gingras,G
AU  - Burger,EA
AU  - Martin,D
AU  - Simms,KT
AU  - Benard,E
AU  - Boily,M-C
AU  - Sy,S
AU  - Regan,C
AU  - Keane,A
AU  - Caruana,M
AU  - Nguyen,DTN
AU  - Smith,MA
AU  - Laprise,J-F
AU  - Jit,M
AU  - Alary,M
AU  - Bray,F
AU  - Fidarova,E
AU  - Elsheikh,F
AU  - Bloem,PJN
AU  - Broutet,N
AU  - Hutubessy,R
DO  - 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30068-4
EP  - 590
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 0140-6736
SP  - 575
TI  - Impact of HPV vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries
T2  - The Lancet
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30068-4
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000514849400028&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/77269
VL  - 395
ER  -

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