Imperial College London
Alternate

ProfessorMarie-ClaudeBoily

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Mathematical Epidemiology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3263mc.boily

 
 
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Location

 

LG26Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@unpublished{Mitchell:2020:10.1101/2020.10.30.20222893,
author = {Mitchell, KM and Dimitrov, D and Silhol, R and Geidelberg, L and Moore, M and Liu, A and Beyrer, C and Mayer, KH and Baral, S and Boily, M-C},
doi = {10.1101/2020.10.30.20222893},
publisher = {Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory},
title = {Estimating the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and mortality among men who have sex with men in the United States: a modelling study.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.30.20222893},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - UNPB
AB  - Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, gay and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States (US) report similar or fewer sexual partners and reduced HIV testing and care access. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use has declined. We estimated the potential impact of COVID-19 on HIV incidence and mortality among US MSM. Methods: We used a calibrated HIV transmission model for MSM in Baltimore, Maryland, and available data on COVID-19-related disruptions to predict impacts of data-driven reductions in sexual partners(0%,25%,50%), condom use(5%), HIV testing(20%), viral suppression(10%), PrEP initiations(72%), PrEP use(9%) and ART initiations(50%), exploring different disruption durations and magnitudes. We estimated the median (95% credible interval) change in cumulative new HIV infections and deaths among MSM over one and five years, compared with a scenario without COVID-19-related disruptions. Findings: A six-month 25% reduction in sexual partners among Baltimore MSM, without HIV service changes, could reduce new HIV infections by 12·2%(11·7,12·8%) and 3·0%(2·6,3·4%) over one and five years, respectively. In the absence of changes in sexual behaviour, the six-month data-driven disruptions to condom use, testing, viral suppression, PrEP initiations, PrEP use and ART initiations combined were predicted to increase new HIV infections by 10·5%(5·8,16·5%) over one year, and by 3·5%(2·1,5·4%) over five years. A 25% reduction in partnerships offsets the negative impact of these combined service disruptions on new HIV infections (overall reduction 3·9%(-1·0,7·4%), 0·0%(-1·4,0·9%) over one, five years, respectively), but not on HIV deaths (corresponding increases 11·0%(6·2,17·7%), 2·6%(1·5,4·3%)). The predicted impacts of reductions in partnerships or viral suppression doubled if they lasted 12
AU  - Mitchell,KM
AU  - Dimitrov,D
AU  - Silhol,R
AU  - Geidelberg,L
AU  - Moore,M
AU  - Liu,A
AU  - Beyrer,C
AU  - Mayer,KH
AU  - Baral,S
AU  - Boily,M-C
DO  - 10.1101/2020.10.30.20222893
PB  - Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
PY  - 2020///
TI  - Estimating the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and mortality among men who have sex with men in the United States: a modelling study.
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.30.20222893
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33173893
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/86284
ER  -
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