Imperial College London
Alternate

ProfessorMarie-ClaudeBoily

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Mathematical Epidemiology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3263mc.boily

 
 
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Location

 

LG26Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Mitchell:2023:10.1016/j.lana.2022.100416,
author = {Mitchell, KM and Boily, MC and Hanscom, B and Moore, M and Todd, J and Paz-Bailey, G and Wejnert, C and Liu, A and Donnell, D and Grinsztejn, B and Landovitz, RJ and Dimitrov, D},
doi = {10.1016/j.lana.2022.100416},
journal = {The Lancet Regional Health - Americas},
title = {Estimating the impact of HIV PrEP regimens containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir or daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine among men who have sex with men in the United States: a mathematical modelling study for HPTN 083},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2022.100416},
volume = {18},
year = {2023}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background:The HPTN 083 trial demonstrated superiority of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB) to daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) among men who have sex with men (MSM). We compared the potential population-level impact of TDF/FTC and CAB among MSM in Atlanta, Georgia.Methods:An MSM HIV transmission model was calibrated to Atlanta-specific data on HIV prevalence and PrEP usage (percentage of uninfected MSM on PrEP), assuming only PrEP-indicated MSM used PrEP. CAB effectiveness (efficacy × adherence) of 91% was estimated using data from HPTN 083 and previous TDF/FTC trials. We estimated HIV infections averted over 5/10 years if TDF/FTC use were maintained, or if all TDF/FTC users switched to CAB in January 2022 (vs. no PrEP or continued TDF/FTC use). CAB scenarios with 10%/20% more users were also considered. Progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) goals (75%/90% fewer HIV infections in 2025/2030 vs. 2017) was estimated.Findings:We predicted TDF/FTC at current usage (∼28%) would avert 36.3% of new HIV infections (95% credible interval 25.6–48.7%) among all Atlanta MSM over 2022–2026 vs. no PrEP. Switching to CAB with similar usage may prevent 44.6% (33.2–56.6%) infections vs. no PrEP and 11.9% (5.2–20.2%) infections vs. continued TDF/FTC. Increasing CAB usage 20% could increase the incremental impact over TDF/FTC to 30.0% over 2022–2026, getting ∼60% towards reaching EHE goals (47%/54% fewer infections in 2025/2030). Reaching the 2030 EHE goal would require 93% CAB usage.Interpretation:If CAB effectiveness were like HPTN 083, CAB could prevent more infections than TDF/FTC at similar usage. Increased CAB usage could contribute substantially towards reaching EHE goals, but the usage required to meet EHE goals is unrealistic.
AU  - Mitchell,KM
AU  - Boily,MC
AU  - Hanscom,B
AU  - Moore,M
AU  - Todd,J
AU  - Paz-Bailey,G
AU  - Wejnert,C
AU  - Liu,A
AU  - Donnell,D
AU  - Grinsztejn,B
AU  - Landovitz,RJ
AU  - Dimitrov,D
DO  - 10.1016/j.lana.2022.100416
PY  - 2023///
SN  - 2667-193X
TI  - Estimating the impact of HIV PrEP regimens containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir or daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine among men who have sex with men in the United States: a mathematical modelling study for HPTN 083
T2  - The Lancet Regional Health - Americas
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2022.100416
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/102089
VL  - 18
ER  -
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