Imperial College London
Alternate

ProfessorMarie-ClaudeBoily

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Mathematical Epidemiology
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3263mc.boily

 
 
//

Location

 

LG26Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Stone:2023:10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104530,
author = {Stone, J and Looker, KJ and Silhol, R and Turner, KME and Hayes, R and Coetzee, J and Baral, S and Schwartz, S and Mayaud, P and Gottlieb, S and Boily, M-C and Vickerman, P},
doi = {10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104530},
journal = {EBioMedicine},
pages = {1--13},
title = {The population impact of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) vaccination on the incidence of HSV-2, HIV and genital ulcer disease in South Africa: a mathematical modelling study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104530},
volume = {90},
year = {2023}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests HSV-2 infection increases HIV acquisition risk and HIV/HSV-2 coinfection increases transmission risk of both infections. We analysed the potential impact of HSV-2 vaccination in South Africa, a high HIV/HSV-2 prevalence setting. METHODS: We adapted a dynamic HIV transmission model for South Africa to incorporate HSV-2, including synergistic effects with HIV, to evaluate the impact of: (i) cohort vaccination of 9-year-olds with a prophylactic vaccine that reduces HSV-2 susceptibility; (ii) vaccination of symptomatically HSV-2-infected individuals with a therapeutic vaccine that reduces HSV shedding. FINDINGS: An 80% efficacious prophylactic vaccine offering lifetime protection with 80% uptake could reduce HSV-2 and HIV incidence by 84.1% (95% Credibility Interval: 81.2-86.0) and 65.4% (56.5-71.6) after 40 years, respectively. This reduces to 57.4% (53.6-60.7) and 42.1% (34.1-48.1) if efficacy is 50%, 56.1% (53.4-58.3) and 41.5% (34.2-46.9) if uptake is 40%, and 29.4% (26.0-31.9) and 24.4% (19.0-28.7) if protection lasts 10 years. An 80% efficacious therapeutic vaccine offering lifetime protection with 40% coverage among symptomatic individuals could reduce HSV-2 and HIV incidence by 29.6% (21.8-40.9) and 26.4% (18.5-23.2) after 40 years, respectively. This reduces to 18.8% (13.7-26.4) and 16.9% (11.7-25.3) if efficacy is 50%, 9.7% (7.0-14.0) and 8.6% (5.8-13.4) if coverage is 20%, and 5.4% (3.8-8.0) and 5.5% (3.7-8.6) if protection lasts 2 years. INTERPRETATION: Prophylactic and therapeutic vaccines offer promising approaches for reducing HSV-2 burden and could have important impact on HIV in South Africa and other high prevalence settings. FUNDING: WHO, NIAID.
AU  - Stone,J
AU  - Looker,KJ
AU  - Silhol,R
AU  - Turner,KME
AU  - Hayes,R
AU  - Coetzee,J
AU  - Baral,S
AU  - Schwartz,S
AU  - Mayaud,P
AU  - Gottlieb,S
AU  - Boily,M-C
AU  - Vickerman,P
DO  - 10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104530
EP  - 13
PY  - 2023///
SN  - 2352-3964
SP  - 1
TI  - The population impact of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) vaccination on the incidence of HSV-2, HIV and genital ulcer disease in South Africa: a mathematical modelling study
T2  - EBioMedicine
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104530
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36933410
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352396423000956
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/103410
VL  - 90
ER  -
Download