Imperial College London
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DrNicholasCroucher

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Reader in Bacterial Genomics
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3820n.croucher

 
 
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Location

 

1104Sir Michael Uren HubWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@phdthesis{Azarian:2018,
author = {Azarian, T and Martinez, PP and Arnold, BJ and Grant, LR and Corander, J and Fraser, C and Croucher, NJ and Hammitt, LL and Reid, R and Santosham, M and Weatherholtz, RC and Bentley, SD and OBrien, KL and Lipsitch, M and Hanage, WP},
title = {Predicting evolution using frequency-dependent selection in bacterial populations},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/420315},
year = {2018}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - THES
AB  - <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. Such has been the case with <jats:italic>Streptococcus pneumoniae</jats:italic>, an important human pathogen, and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which target only a fraction of the strains in the population. Here, we use the frequencies of accessory genes to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products. We find that the standardized predicted fitness of a strain estimated by an NFDS-based model at the time the vaccine is introduced enables to predict whether the strain increases or decreases in prevalence following vaccination. Further, we are able to forecast the equilibrium post-vaccine population composition and assess the invasion capacity of emerging lineages. Overall, we provide a method for predicting the impact of an intervention on pneumococcal populations with potential application to other bacterial pathogens in which NFDS is a driving force.</jats:p>
AU  - Azarian,T
AU  - Martinez,PP
AU  - Arnold,BJ
AU  - Grant,LR
AU  - Corander,J
AU  - Fraser,C
AU  - Croucher,NJ
AU  - Hammitt,LL
AU  - Reid,R
AU  - Santosham,M
AU  - Weatherholtz,RC
AU  - Bentley,SD
AU  - OBrien,KL
AU  - Lipsitch,M
AU  - Hanage,WP
PY  - 2018///
TI  - Predicting evolution using frequency-dependent selection in bacterial populations
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/420315
ER  -
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