Publications
160 results found
Cooper LV, Erbeto TB, Danzomo AA, et al., 2024, Effectiveness of poliovirus vaccines against circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliomyelitis in Nigeria between 2017 and 2022: a case-control study, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol: 24, Pages: 427-436, ISSN: 1473-3099
BackgroundBetween 2018 and 2022, Nigeria experienced continuous transmission of circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2), with 526 cases of cVDPV2 poliomyelitis detected in total and approximately 180 million doses of monovalent type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV2) and 450 million doses of novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (nOPV2) delivered in outbreak response campaigns. Inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) was introduced into routine immunisation in 2015, with a second dose added in 2021. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of nOPV2 against cVDPV2 paralysis and compare nOPV2 effectiveness with that of mOPV2 and IPV.MethodsIn this retrospective case-control study, we used acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance data in Nigeria from Jan 1, 2017, to Dec 31, 2022, using age-matched, onset-matched, and location-matched cVDPV2-negative AFP cases as test-negative controls. We also did a parallel prospective study from March, 2021, using age-matched community controls from the same settlement as the cases. We included children born after May, 2016, younger than 60 months, for whom polio immunisation history (doses of OPV from campaigns and IPV) was reported. We estimated the per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 against cVDPV2 paralysis using conditional logistic regression and compared nOPV2 effectiveness with that of mOPV2 and IPV.FindingsIn the retrospective case-control study, we identified 509 cVDPV2 poliomyelitis cases in Nigeria with case verification and paralysis onset between Jan 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2022. Of these, 82 children were excluded for not meeting inclusion criteria, and 363 (85%) of 427 eligible cases were matched to 1303 test-negative controls. Cases reported fewer OPV and IPV doses than test-negative controls (mean number of OPV doses 5·9 [SD 4·2] in cases vs 6·7 [4·3] in controls; one or more IPV doses reported in 95 [26%] of 363 cases vs 513 [39%] of 1303 controls). We found low per-dose effect
Bandyopadhyay AS, Lopez Cavestany R, Blake IM, et al., 2023, Use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine for poliovirus outbreak response., Lancet Infect Dis
With continued wild poliovirus transmission in Afghanistan and Pakistan and circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus in certain countries, there exists an ongoing risk of importation of polioviruses into other countries, including those that have been polio-free for decades. Diversifying the poliovirus outbreak response toolkit is essential to account for different public health and epidemiological contexts. In this Personal View, we discuss data on intestinal and pharyngeal mucosal immunity induced by inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), previous programmatic experience of poliovirus outbreak response with IPV, and outbreak response guidelines in countries that exclusively use IPV. With recent reports of poliovirus detection in polio-free countries such as the USA and the UK, it is important to assess the interplay of virus transmission dynamics, vaccine impact on preventing paralysis and virus spread, and regulatory complexities of using oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and IPV options for outbreak response. As the global eradication programme navigates through cessation of routine OPV use with replacement by IPV and stockpiling of novel OPVs, clarity on the impact of IPV use will be important for informed decision making by global, regional, and national policy makers.
Uzzell CB, Abraham D, Rigby J, et al., 2023, Environmental surveillance for Salmonella Typhi and its association with typhoid fever incidence in India and Malawi, Journal of Infectious Diseases, ISSN: 0022-1899
BACKGROUND: Environmental surveillance (ES) for Salmonella Typhi potentially offers a low-cost tool to identify communities with a high burden of typhoid fever. METHODS: We developed standardised protocols for typhoid ES, including sampling site selection, validation, characterisation; grab or trap sample collection, concentration; and quantitative PCR targeting Salmonella genes (ttr, staG and tviB) and a marker of human faecal contamination (HF183). ES was implemented over 12-months in a historically high typhoid fever incidence setting (Vellore, India) and a lower incidence setting (Blantyre, Malawi) during 2021-2022. RESULTS: S. Typhi prevalence in ES samples was higher in Vellore compared with Blantyre; 39/520 (7.5%, 95% Confidence Interval 4.4-12.4%) vs. 11/533 (2.1%, 1.1-4.0%) in grab and 79/517 (15.3%, 9.8-23.0%) vs. 23/594 (3.9%, 1.9-7.9%) in trap samples. Detection was clustered by ES site and correlated with site catchment population in Vellore but not Blantyre. Incidence of culture-confirmed typhoid in local hospitals was low during the study and zero some months in Vellore despite S. Typhi detection in ES. CONCLUSIONS: ES describes the prevalence and distribution of S. Typhi even in the absence of typhoid cases and could inform vaccine introduction. Expanded implementation and comparison with clinical and serological surveillance will further establish its public health utility.
Shaw AG, Troman C, Akello JO, et al., 2023, Defining a research agenda for environmental wastewater surveillance of pathogens, Nature Medicine, Vol: 29, Pages: 2155-2157, ISSN: 1078-8956
Shaw AGG, Mampuela TK, Lofiko EL, et al., 2023, Sensitive poliovirus detection using nested PCR and nanopore sequencing: a prospective validation study, NATURE MICROBIOLOGY, ISSN: 2058-5276
Gray E, Cooper L, Bandyopadhyay A, et al., 2023, The origins and risk factors for serotype-2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) emergences in Africa during 2016-2019, Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol: 228, Pages: 80-88, ISSN: 0022-1899
Serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) can revert to regain wild-type neurovirulence and spread to cause emergences of vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2). After its global withdrawal from routine immunization in 2016, outbreak response use has created a cycle of VDPV2 emergences that threaten eradication. We implemented a hierarchical model based on VP1 region genetic divergence, time, and location to attribute emergences to campaigns and identify risk factors. We found that a 10 percentage point increase in population immunity in children younger than 5 years at the campaign time and location corresponds to a 18.0% decrease (95% credible interval [CrI], 6.3%–28%) in per-campaign relative risk, and that campaign size is associated with emergence risk (relative risk scaling with population size to a power of 0.80; 95% CrI, .50–1.10). Our results imply how Sabin OPV2 can be used alongside the genetically stable but supply-limited novel OPV2 (listed for emergency use in November 2020) to minimize emergence risk.
Pons-Salort M, Lambert B, Kamau E, et al., 2023, Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data., eLife, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2050-084X
The factors leading to the global emergence of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 as a cause of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) in children are unknown. To investigate potential changes in virus transmissibility or population susceptibility, we measured the seroprevalence of EV-D68-specific neutralising antibodies in serum samples collected in England in 2006, 2011, and 2017. Using catalytic mathematical models, we estimate an approximately 50% increase in the annual probability of infection over the 10-year study period, coinciding with the emergence of clade B around 2009. Despite such increase in transmission, seroprevalence data suggest that the virus was already widely circulating before the AFM outbreaks and the increase of infections by age cannot explain the observed number of AFM cases. Therefore, the acquisition of or an increase in neuropathogenicity would be additionally required to explain the emergence of outbreaks of AFM. Our results provide evidence that changes in enterovirus phenotypes cause major changes in disease epidemiology.
John J, Bavdekar A, Rongsen-Chandola T, et al., 2023, Burden of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in India., New England Journal of Medicine, Vol: 388, Pages: 1491-1500, ISSN: 0028-4793
BACKGROUND: In 2017, more than half the cases of typhoid fever worldwide were projected to have occurred in India. In the absence of contemporary population-based data, it is unclear whether declining trends of hospitalization for typhoid in India reflect increased antibiotic treatment or a true reduction in infection. METHODS: From 2017 through 2020, we conducted weekly surveillance for acute febrile illness and measured the incidence of typhoid fever (as confirmed on blood culture) in a prospective cohort of children between the ages of 6 months and 14 years at three urban sites and one rural site in India. At an additional urban site and five rural sites, we combined blood-culture testing of hospitalized patients who had a fever with survey data regarding health care use to estimate incidence in the community. RESULTS: A total of 24,062 children who were enrolled in four cohorts contributed 46,959 child-years of observation. Among these children, 299 culture-confirmed typhoid cases were recorded, with an incidence per 100,000 child-years of 576 to 1173 cases in urban sites and 35 in rural Pune. The estimated incidence of typhoid fever from hospital surveillance ranged from 12 to 1622 cases per 100,000 child-years among children between the ages of 6 months and 14 years and from 108 to 970 cases per 100,000 person-years among those who were 15 years of age or older. Salmonella enterica serovar Paratyphi was isolated from 33 children, for an overall incidence of 68 cases per 100,000 child-years after adjustment for age. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of typhoid fever in urban India remains high, with generally lower estimates of incidence in most rural areas. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; NSSEFI Clinical Trials Registry of India number, CTRI/2017/09/009719; ISRCTN registry number, ISRCTN72938224.).
Macklin GR, Goel AK, Mach O, et al., 2023, Epidemiology of type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks between 2016 and 2020, Vaccine, Vol: 41, Pages: A19-A24, ISSN: 0264-410X
The number and geographic breadth of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaksdetected after the withdrawal of type 2 containing oral polio vaccine (April 2016) have exceeded fore-casts. Using Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) investigations and environmental surveillance (ES) data fromthe Global Polio Laboratory Network, we summarize the epidemiology of cVDPV2 outbreaks. Between01 January 2016 to 31 December 2020, a total of 68 unique cVDPV2 genetic emergences were detectedacross 34 countries. The cVDPV2 outbreaks have been associated with 1596 acute flaccid paralysis casesacross four World Health Organization regions: 962/1596 (60.3%) cases occurred in African Region;619/1596 (38.8%) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region; 14/1596 (0.9%) in Western-Pacific Region; and1/1596 (0.1%) in the European Region. As the majority of the cVDPV2 outbreaks have been seededthrough monovalent type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV2) use in outbreak responses, the introductionof the more stable novel oral poliovirus vaccine will be instrumental in stopping emergence of newcVDPV2 lineages
Molodecky NA, Jafari H, Safdar RM, et al., 2023, Modelling the spread of serotype-2 vaccine derived-poliovirus outbreak in Pakistan and Afghanistan to inform outbreak control strategies in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, Vaccine, Vol: 41, Pages: A93-A104, ISSN: 0264-410X
BackgroundSince July 2019, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been facing an outbreak of serotype-2 circulating vaccine derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) in addition to continued transmission of serotype-1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) and SARS-CoV-2 in 2020. Understanding the risks of cVDPV2 transmission due to pause of global vaccination efforts and the impact of potential vaccination response strategies in the current context of COVID-19 mitigation measures is critical.MethodsWe developed a stochastic, geographically structured mathematical model of cVDPV2 transmission which captures both mucosal and humoral immunity separately and allows for reversion of serotype-2 oral polio vaccine (OPV2) virus to cVDPV2 following vaccine administration. The model includes geographic heterogeneities in vaccination coverage, population immunity and population movement. The model was fitted to historic cVDPV2 cases in Pakistan and Afghanistan between January 2010-April 2016 and July 2019-March 2020 using iterated particle filtering. The model was used to simulate spread of cVDPV2 infection from July 2019 to explore impact of various proposed vaccination responses on stopping transmission and risk of spread of reverted Sabin-2 under varying assumptions of impacts from COVID-19 lockdown measures on movement patterns as well as declines in vaccination coverage.ResultsSimulated monthly incidence of cVDPV2 from the best-fit model demonstrated general spatio-temporal alignment with observed cVDPV2 cases. The model predicted substantial spread of cVDPV2 infection, with widespread transmission through 2020 in the absence of any vaccination activities. Vaccination responses were predicted to substantially reduce transmission and case burden, with a greater impact from earlier responses and those with larger geographic scope. While the greatest risk of seeding reverted Sabin-2 was predicted in areas targeted with OPV2, subsequent spread was greatest in areas with no or delayed response. The proposed vaccin
Akello J, Bujaki E, Shaw A, et al., 2023, Comparison of eleven RNA extraction methods for poliovirus direct molecular detection in stool samples, Microbiology Spectrum, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 2165-0497
Direct detection by PCR of poliovirus RNA in stool samples provides a rapid diagnostic and surveillance tool that can replace virus isolation by cell culture in global polio surveillance. The sensitivity of direct detection methods is likely to depend on the choice of RNA extraction method and sample volume. We report a comparative analysis of 11 nucleic acid extraction methods (7 manual and 4 semiautomated) for poliovirus molecular detection using stool samples (n = 59) that had been previously identified as poliovirus positive by cell culture. To assess the effect of RNA recovery methods, extracted RNA using each of the 11 methods was tested with a poliovirus-specific reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR), a pan-poliovirus RT-PCR (near-whole-genome amplification), a pan-enterovirus RT-PCR (entire capsid region), and a nested VP1 PCR that is the basis of a direct detection method based on nanopore sequencing. We also assessed extracted RNA integrity and quantity. The overall effect of extraction method on poliovirus PCR amplification assays tested in this study was found to be statistically significant (P < 0.001), thus indicating that the choice of RNA extraction method is an important component that needs to be carefully considered for any diagnostic based on nucleic acid amplification. Performance of the methods was generally consistent across the different assays used. Of the 11 extraction methods tested, the MagMAX viral RNA isolation kit used manually or automatically was found to be the preferable method for poliovirus molecular direct detection considering performance, cost, and processing time.
Grassly NC, Andrews N, Cooper G, et al., 2023, Effect of maternal immunisation with multivalent vaccines containing inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) on infant IPV immune response: A phase 4, multi-centre randomised trial, VACCINE, Vol: 41, Pages: 1299-1302, ISSN: 0264-410X
Klapsa D, Wilton T, Zealand A, et al., 2022, Sustained detection of type 2 poliovirus in London sewage between February and July, 2022, by enhanced environmental surveillance, The Lancet, Vol: 400, Pages: 1531-1538, ISSN: 0140-6736
BACKGROUND: The international spread of poliovirus exposes all countries to the risk of outbreaks and is designated a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by WHO. This risk can be exacerbated in countries using inactivated polio vaccine, which offers excellent protection against paralysis but is less effective than oral vaccine against poliovirus shedding, potentially allowing circulation without detection of paralytic cases for long periods of time. Our study investigated the molecular properties of type 2 poliovirus isolates found in sewage with an aim to detect virus transmission in the community. METHODS: We performed environmental surveillance in London, UK, testing sewage samples using WHO recommended methods that include concentration, virus isolation in cell culture, and molecular characterisation. We additionally implemented direct molecular detection and determined whole-genome sequences of every isolate using novel nanopore protocols. FINDINGS: 118 genetically linked poliovirus isolates related to the serotype 2 Sabin vaccine strain were detected in 21 of 52 sequential sewage samples collected in London between Feb 8 and July 4, 2022. Expansion of environmental surveillance sites in London helped localise transmission to several boroughs in north and east London. All isolates have lost two key attenuating mutations, are recombinants with a species C enterovirus, and an increasing proportion (20 of 118) meet the criterion for a vaccine-derived poliovirus, having six to ten nucleotide changes in the gene coding for VP1 capsid protein. INTERPRETATION: Environmental surveillance allowed early detection of poliovirus importation and circulation in London, permitting a rapid public health response, including enhanced surveillance and an inactivated polio vaccine campaign among children aged 1-9 years. Whole-genome sequences generated through nanopore sequencing established linkage of isolates and confirmed transmission of a unique recombinant poliov
Shaw A, Cooper L, Gumede N, et al., 2022, Time taken to detect and respond to polio outbreaks in Africa and the potential impact of direct molecular detection and nanopore sequencing, Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol: 226, Pages: 453-462, ISSN: 0022-1899
BackgroundDetection of poliovirus outbreaks relies on a complex laboratory algorithm of cell-culture, PCR and sequencing to distinguish wild-type and vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPV) from Sabin-like strains. We investigated the potential for direct molecular detection and nanopore sequencing (DDNS) to accelerate poliovirus detection.MethodsWe analysed laboratory data for time required to analyse and sequence serotype-2 VDPV (VDPV2) in stool collected from children with acute flaccid paralysis in Africa (May 2016-February 2020). Impact of delayed detection on VDPV2 outbreak size was assessed through negative binomial regression.ResultsVDPV2 confirmation in 525 stools required a median of 49 days from paralysis onset (10th-90th percentile: 29-74), comprising collection and transport (median: 16 days), cell-culture (7 days), intratypic differentiation RT-qPCR (3 days) and sequencing (including shipping if required) (15 days). New VDPV2 outbreaks were confirmed a median of 35 days (27-60) after paralysis onset, which we estimate could be reduced to 16 days by DDNS (9-37). Because longer delays in confirmation and response were positively associated with more cases (p<0.001), we estimate that DDNS could reduce the number of VDPV2 cases before a response by 28% (95% CrI 12-42%).ConclusionsDDNS could accelerate poliovirus outbreak response, reducing their size and the cost of eradication.
Williams LR, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, et al., 2022, Measuring vaccine efficacy against infection and disease in clinical trials: sources and magnitude of bias in COVID-19 vaccine efficacy estimates, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 75, Pages: e764-e773, ISSN: 1058-4838
BACKGROUND: Phase III trials have estimated COVID-19 vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic and asymptomatic infection. We explore the direction and magnitude of potential biases in these estimates and their implications for vaccine protection against infection and against disease in breakthrough infections. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model that accounts for natural and vaccine-induced immunity, changes in serostatus and imperfect sensitivity and specificity of tests for infection and antibodies. We estimated expected biases in VE against symptomatic, asymptomatic and any SARS͏CoV2 infections and against disease following infection for a range of vaccine characteristics and measurement approaches, and the likely overall biases for published trial results that included asymptomatic infections. RESULTS: VE against asymptomatic infection measured by PCR or serology is expected to be low or negative for vaccines that prevent disease but not infection. VE against any infection is overestimated when asymptomatic infections are less likely to be detected than symptomatic infections and the vaccine protects against symptom development. A competing bias towards underestimation arises for estimates based on tests with imperfect specificity, especially when testing is performed frequently. Our model indicates considerable uncertainty in Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 and Janssen Ad26.COV2.S VE against any infection, with slightly higher than published, bias-adjusted values of 59.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38.4 to 77.1) and 70.9% (95% UI 49.8 to 80.7) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple biases are likely to influence COVID-19 VE estimates, potentially explaining the observed difference between ChAdOx1 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines. These biases should be considered when interpreting both efficacy and effectiveness study results.
Grassly NC, 2022, Polio's detection in London is a wake-up call., BMJ: British Medical Journal, Vol: 377, Pages: o1589-o1589, ISSN: 0959-535X
Pons-Salort M, John J, Watson OJ, et al., 2022, Reassessing reported deaths and estimated infection attack rate during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 epidemic, Delhi, India., Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol: 28, ISSN: 1080-6040
India reported >10 million coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To reassess reported deaths and estimate incidence rates during the first 6 months of the epidemic, we used a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission model fit to data from 3 serosurveys in Delhi and time-series documentation of reported deaths. We estimated 48.7% (95% credible interval 22.1%-76.8%) cumulative infection in the population through the end of September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries, we estimated that just 15.0% (95% credible interval 9.3%-34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths had been reported, indicating either substantial underreporting or lower age-specific infection-fatality ratios in India than in high-income countries. Despite the estimated high attack rate, additional epidemic waves occurred in late 2020 and April-May 2021. Future dynamics will depend on the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity and their effectiveness against new variants.
Cooper LV, Bandyopadhyay AS, Gumede N, et al., 2022, Risk factors for the spread of vaccine-derived type 2 polioviruses after global withdrawal of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine and the effects of outbreak responses with monovalent vaccine: a retrospective analysis of surveillance data for 51 countries in Africa, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol: 22, Pages: 284-294, ISSN: 1473-3099
BACKGROUND: Expanding outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2) across Africa after the global withdrawal of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in 2016 are delaying global polio eradication. We aimed to assess the effect of outbreak response campaigns with monovalent type 2 OPV (mOPV2) and the addition of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) to routine immunisation. METHODS: We used vaccination history data from children under 5 years old with non-polio acute flaccid paralysis from a routine surveillance database (the Polio Information System) and setting-specific OPV immunogenicity data from the literature to estimate OPV-induced and IPV-induced population immunity against type 2 poliomyelitis between Jan 1, 2015, and June 30, 2020, for 51 countries in Africa. We investigated risk factors for reported cVDPV2 poliomyelitis including population immunity, outbreak response activities, and correlates of poliovirus transmission using logistic regression. We used the model to estimate cVDPV2 risk for each 6-month period between Jan 1, 2016, and June 30, 2020, with different numbers of mOPV2 campaigns and compared the timing and location of actual mOPV2 campaigns and the number of mOPV2 campaigns required to reduce cVDPV2 risk to low levels. FINDINGS: Type 2 OPV immunity among children under 5 years declined from a median of 87% (IQR 81-93) in January-June, 2016 to 14% (9-37) in January-June, 2020. Type 2 immunity from IPV among children under 5 years increased from 3% (<1-6%) in January-June, 2016 to 35% (24-47) in January-June, 2020. The probability of cVDPV2 poliomyelitis among children under 5 years was negatively correlated with OPV-induced and IPV-induced immunity and mOPV2 campaigns (adjusted odds ratio: OPV 0·68 [95% CrI 0·60-0·76], IPV 0·82 [0·68-0·99] per 10% absolute increase in estimated population immunity, mOPV2 0·30 [0·20-0·44] per campaign). Vaccination campaig
Parker EPK, Bronowski C, Sindhu KNC, et al., 2021, Impact of maternal antibodies and microbiota development on the immunogenicity of oral rotavirus vaccine in African, Indian, and European infants, NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, Vol: 12
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Srinivasan M, Sindhu KN, Giri S, et al., 2021, <i>Salmonella</i> Typhi Shedding and Household Transmission by Children With Blood Culture-Confirmed Typhoid Fever in Vellore, South India, JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 224, Pages: S593-S600, ISSN: 0022-1899
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Srinivasan M, Sindhu KN, Ramanujam K, et al., 2021, Factors Predicting Blood Culture Positivity Children With Enteric Fever, JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 224, Pages: S484-S493, ISSN: 0022-1899
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Pons-Salort M, Lambert B, Kamau E, et al., 2021, Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>The factors leading to the global emergence of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 as a cause of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) in children are unknown. To investigate potential changes in virus transmissibility or population susceptibility, we measured the seroprevalence of EV-D68-specific neutralising antibodies in serum samples collected in England in 2006, 2011 and 2017. Using catalytic mathematical models, we estimate an approximately two-fold increase in the basic reproduction number over the 10-year study period, coinciding with the emergence of clade B around 2009. Despite such increase in transmission, the virus was already widely circulating before the AFM outbreaks and the increase of infections by age cannot explain the observed number of AFM cases. Therefore, the acquisition of or an increase in neuropathogenicity would be additionally required to explain the emergence of outbreaks of AFM. Our results provide evidence that changes in enterovirus phenotypes cause major changes in disease epidemiology.</jats:p>
Williams LR, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, et al., 2021, Measuring vaccine efficacy against infection and disease in clinical trials: sources and magnitude of bias in COVID-19 vaccine efficacy estimates, Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Background Phase III trials have estimated COVID-19 vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic and asymptomatic infection. We explore the direction and magnitude of potential biases in these estimates and their implications for vaccine protection against infection and against disease in breakthrough infections.Methods We developed a mathematical model that accounts for natural and vaccine-induced immunity, changes in serostatus and imperfect sensitivity and specificity of tests for infection and antibodies. We estimated expected biases in VE against symptomatic, asymptomatic and any SARS-CoV-2 infections and against disease following infection for a range of vaccine characteristics and measurement approaches, and the likely overall biases for published trial results that included asymptomatic infections.Results VE against asymptomatic infection measured by PCR or serology is expected to be low or negative for vaccines that prevent disease but not infection. VE against any infection is overestimated when asymptomatic infections are less likely to be detected than symptomatic infections and the vaccine protects against symptom development. A competing bias towards underestimation arises for estimates based on tests with imperfect specificity, especially when testing is performed frequently. Our model indicates considerable uncertainty in Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 and Janssen Ad26.COV2.S VE against any infection, with slightly higher than published, bias-adjusted values of 59.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38.4 to 77.1) and 70.9% (95% UI 49.8 to 80.7) respectively.Conclusion Multiple biases are likely to influence COVID-19 VE estimates, potentially explaining the observed difference between ChAdOx1 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines. These biases should be considered when interpreting both efficacy and effectiveness study results.
Uzzell CB, Troman CM, Rigby J, et al., 2021, Environmental surveillance for <i>Salmonella</i> Typhi as a tool to estimate the incidence of typhoid fever in low-income populations
<jats:p>Background: The World Health Organisation recommends prioritised use of recently prequalified typhoid conjugate vaccines in countries with the highest incidence of typhoid fever. However, representative typhoid surveillance data are lacking in many low-income countries because of the costs and challenges of diagnostic clinical microbiology. Environmental surveillance (ES) of <jats:italic>Salmonella</jats:italic> Typhi in sewage and wastewater using molecular methods may offer a low-cost alternative, but its performance in comparison with clinical surveillance has not been assessed. Methodology/Principal Findings: We developed a harmonised protocol for typhoid ES and its implementation in communities in India and Malawi where it will be compared with findings from hospital-based surveillance for typhoid fever. The protocol includes methods for ES site selection based on geospatial analysis, grab and trap sample collection at sewage and wastewater sites, and laboratory methods for sample processing, concentration and quantitative PCR to detect <jats:italic>Salmonella</jats:italic> Typhi. The optimal locations for ES sites based on digital elevation models and mapping of sewage and river networks are described for each community and their suitability confirmed through field investigation. We will compare the prevalence and abundance of <jats:italic>Salmonella</jats:italic> Typhi in ES samples collected each month over a 12-month period to the incidence of blood culture confirmed typhoid estimated from cases recorded at referral hospitals serving the study areas and community surveys of healthcare seeking for individuals with fever. Significance: If environmental detection of <jats:italic>Salmonella</jats:italic> Typhi correlates with the incidence of typhoid fever estimated through clinical surveillance, typhoid ES may be a powerful and low-cost tool to estimate the local burden of typhoid fever and support
Pons-Salort M, John J, Watson OJ, et al., 2021, Reconstructing the COVID-19 epidemic in Delhi, India: infection attack rate and reporting of deaths
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>India reported over 10 million COVID-19 cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To estimate exposure and the potential for further spread, we used a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model fit to seroprevalence data from three serosurveys in Delhi and the time-series of reported deaths to reconstruct the epidemic. The cumulative proportion of the population estimated infected was 48.7% (95% CrI 22.1% – 76.8%) by end-September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries (HICs), we estimate that 15.0% (95% CrI 9.3% – 34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths were reported. This indicates either under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths and/or a lower age-specific IFR in India compared with HICs. Despite the high attack rate of SARS-CoV-2, a third wave occurred in late 2020, suggesting that herd immunity was not yet reached. Future dynamics will strongly depend on the duration of immunity and protection against new variants.</jats:p>
Li X, Mukandavire C, Cucunuba ZM, et al., 2021, Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study, The Lancet, Vol: 397, Pages: 398-408, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundThe past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030.Methods16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort.FindingsWe estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52–88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30–48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36–58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52–66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93–150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39–76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25–52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59–81) reduction in lifetime mortality in t
Grassly NC, Pons-Salort M, Parker EPK, et al., 2020, Comparison of molecular testing strategies for COVID-19 control: a mathematical modelling study, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol: 20, Pages: 1381-1389, ISSN: 1473-3099
BACKGROUND: WHO has called for increased testing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but countries have taken different approaches and the effectiveness of alternative strategies is unknown. We aimed to investigate the potential impact of different testing and isolation strategies on transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission based on infectiousness and PCR test sensitivity over time since infection. We estimated the reduction in the effective reproduction number (R) achieved by testing and isolating symptomatic individuals, regular screening of high-risk groups irrespective of symptoms, and quarantine of contacts of laboratory-confirmed cases identified through test-and-trace protocols. The expected effectiveness of different testing strategies was defined as the percentage reduction in R. We reviewed data on the performance of antibody tests reported by the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics and examined their implications for the use of so-called immunity passports. FINDINGS: If all individuals with symptoms compatible with COVID-19 self-isolated and self-isolation was 100% effective in reducing onwards transmission, self-isolation of symptomatic individuals would result in a reduction in R of 47% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 32-55). PCR testing to identify SARS-CoV-2 infection soon after symptom onset could reduce the number of individuals needing to self-isolate, but would also reduce the effectiveness of self-isolation (around 10% would be false negatives). Weekly screening of health-care workers and other high-risk groups irrespective of symptoms by use of PCR testing is estimated to reduce their contribution to SARS-CoV-2 transmission by 23% (95% UI 16-40), on top of reductions achieved by self-isolation following symptoms, assuming results are available at 24 h. The effectiveness of test and trace depends strongly on coverage and the timelines
Srinivasan M, Giri S, Natarajan SK, et al., 2020, Stool shedding of Salmonella Typhi in children with blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever, Publisher: ELSEVIER SCI LTD, Pages: 123-123, ISSN: 1201-9712
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Parker EPK, Bronowski C, Sindhu KNC, et al., 2020, Impact of maternal antibodies and microbiota development on the immunogenicity of oral rotavirus vaccine in African, Indian, and European infants: a prospective cohort study
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Identifying risk factors for impaired oral rotavirus vaccine (ORV) efficacy in low-income countries may lead to improvements in vaccine design and delivery. We measured maternal rotavirus antibodies, environmental enteric dysfunction (EED), and bacterial gut microbiota development among infants receiving two doses of Rotarix in India (n = 307), Malawi (n = 119), and the UK (n = 60), using standardised methods across cohorts. ORV shedding and seroconversion rates were significantly lower in Malawi and India than the UK. Maternal rotavirus-specific antibodies in serum and breastmilk were negatively correlated with ORV response in India and Malawi, and this was mediated partly by a reduction in ORV replication. In the UK, ORV replication was not inhibited despite comparable maternal antibody levels. In both India and Malawi, pre-vaccination microbiota diversity was negatively correlated with ORV immunogenicity, suggesting that high early-life microbial exposure may contribute to impaired vaccine efficacy.</jats:p>
Chilengi R, Simuyandi M, Chibuye M, et al., 2020, A pilot study on use of live attenuated rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix™) as an infection challenge model, VACCINE, Vol: 38, Pages: 7357-7362, ISSN: 0264-410X
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