Publications
160 results found
Grassly NC, Wenger J, Aylward RB, 2007, Potent questions about India's polio vaccine - Response, SCIENCE, Vol: 318, Pages: 914-+, ISSN: 0036-8075
Grassly NC, Wenger J, Aylward RB, 2007, Response [6], Science, Vol: 318, Pages: 914-916, ISSN: 0036-8075
Grassly NC, Wenger J, Bahl S, et al., 2007, Protective efficacy of a monovalent oral type 1 poliovirus vaccine - Reply, LANCET, Vol: 370, Pages: 129-130, ISSN: 0140-6736
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- Citations: 1
Gambhir M, Basanez M-G, Turner F, et al., 2007, Trachoma:: transmission, infection, and control, LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 7, Pages: 420-427, ISSN: 1473-3099
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- Citations: 40
Grassly NC, Wenger J, Durrani S, 2007, Protective efficacy of a monovalent oral type 1 poliovirus vaccine: a case-control study (vol 369, pg 1356, 2007), LANCET, Vol: 369, Pages: 1790-1790, ISSN: 0140-6736
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- Citations: 5
Grassly NC, Wenger J, Durrani S, et al., 2007, Protective efficacy of a monovalent oral type 1 poliovirus vaccine: a case-control study, LANCET, Vol: 369, Pages: 1356-1362, ISSN: 0140-6736
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- Citations: 107
Mugurungi O, Gregson S, McNaghten AD, et al., 2007, HIV IN ZIMBABWE 1985-2003: MEASUREMENT, TRENDS AND IMPACT, HIV, RESURGENT INFECTIONS AND POPULATION CHANGE IN AFRICA, Editors: Carael, Glynn, Publisher: SPRINGER, Pages: 195-213
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- Citations: 2
Grassly NC, Fraser C, Wenger J, et al., 2006, New strategies for the elimination of polio from India, SCIENCE, Vol: 314, Pages: 1150-1153, ISSN: 0036-8075
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- Citations: 196
Grassly NC, Fraser C, 2006, Seasonal Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B, Vol: FirstCite Early Online Publish
Stover J, Walker N, Grassly NC, et al., 2006, Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS and the number of people in need of treatment: updates to the Spectrum Projection Package, SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS, Vol: 82, Pages: III45-III50, ISSN: 1368-4973
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- Citations: 79
Brown T, Grassly NC, Garnett G, et al., 2006, Improving projections at the country level: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2005, SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS, Vol: 82, Pages: III34-III40, ISSN: 1368-4973
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- Citations: 51
Brown T, Grossly NC, Garnett G, et al., 2006, Improving projections at the country level: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2005, SEX TRANSM INFECT, Vol: 82, Pages: 34-40, ISSN: 1368-4973
Background: UNAIDS has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) as a tool for national programmes to use for making national estimates and short term projections of HIV prevalence. EPP provides direct input to Spectrum, which produces incidence, deaths, and AIDS impacts.Methods: The latest version, EPP 2005, includes substantial methodological improvements over the previous version. These include: (1) parallel, but unique, interfaces for generalised and concentrated epidemics; (2) use of maximum likelihood fitting procedures; (3) a new procedure, known as level fits, adjusting for expansion of national surveillance systems into lower prevalence sites; (4) provisions for handling turnover in at-risk populations, including the reassignment of HIV positive former members to lower risk populations; and (5) user-defined calibration to HIV prevalence levels from general population or other epidemiological surveys.Results: Following regional training in mid 2005, this new version has been applied by many national programmes to make their end of 2005 estimates of HIV infections. UNAIDS has combined these national estimates to form the 2005 global HIV and AIDS estimates.Conclusion: EPP 2005 is a substantial improvement over previous versions, forming a solid base for the next round of modifications. Proposed modifications for that next version are presented for the reader's information.
Grassly NC, Timaeus IM, 2005, Methods to estimate the number of orphans as a result of AIDS and other causes in sub-Saharan Africa, JAIDS-JOURNAL OF ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROMES, Vol: 39, Pages: 365-375, ISSN: 1525-4135
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- Citations: 19
Grassly NC, Garnett GP, 2005, The future of the HIV pandemic, BULLETIN OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, Vol: 83, Pages: 378-382, ISSN: 0042-9686
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- Citations: 15
Grassly NC, Fraser C, Garnett GP, 2005, Host immunity and synchronized epidemics of syphilis across the United States, NATURE, Vol: 433, Pages: 417-421, ISSN: 0028-0836
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- Citations: 157
Grassly NC, Morgan M, Walker N, et al., 2004, Uncertainty in estimates of HIV/AIDS: the estimation and application of plausibility bounds, SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS, Vol: 80, ISSN: 1368-4973
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- Citations: 55
Garnett GP, Grassly NC, Boerma JT, et al., 2004, HIV surveillance data analytical tools - Maximising the global use of HIV surveillance data through the development and sharing of analytical tools, SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS, Vol: 80, ISSN: 1368-4973
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- Citations: 6
Walker N, Stover J, Stanecki K, et al., 2004, The workbook approach to making estimates and projecting future scenarios of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics, SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS, Vol: 80, ISSN: 1368-4973
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- Citations: 29
Ghys PD, Brown T, Grassly NC, et al., 2004, The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package: a software package to estimate and project national HIV epidemics, SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS, Vol: 80, ISSN: 1368-4973
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- Citations: 82
Grassly NC, Lewis JJC, Mahy M, et al., 2004, Comparison of household-survey estimates with projections of mortality and orphan numbers in sub-Saharan Africa in the era of HIV/AIDS, POPULATION STUDIES-A JOURNAL OF DEMOGRAPHY, Vol: 58, Pages: 207-217, ISSN: 0032-4728
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- Citations: 22
Walker N, Grassly NC, Garnett GP, et al., 2004, Estimating the global burden of HIV/AIDS: what do we really know about the HIV pandemic?, LANCET, Vol: 363, Pages: 2180-2185, ISSN: 0140-6736
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- Citations: 58
Pisani E, Garnett GP, Brown T, et al., 2003, Back to basics in HIV prevention: focus on exposure, BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 326, Pages: 1384-1387, ISSN: 0959-535X
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- Citations: 85
Grassly NC, Desai K, Pegurri E, et al., 2003, The economic impact of HIV/AIDS on the education sector in Zambia, AIDS, Vol: 17, Pages: 1039-1044, ISSN: 0269-9370
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- Citations: 16
Grassly NC, Garnett GP, 2003, Explicit models make better policy, International Journal of Drug Policy, Vol: 14, Pages: 339-341
Grassly NC, Lowndes CM, Rhodes T, et al., 2003, Modelling emerging HIV epidemics: the role of injecting drug use and sexual transmission in the Russian Federation, China and India., International Journal of Drug Policy, Vol: 14, Pages: 25-43
Stover J, Walker N, Garnett GP, et al., 2002, Can we reverse the HIV/AIDS pandemic with an expanded response?, LANCET, Vol: 360, Pages: 73-77, ISSN: 0140-6736
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- Citations: 119
Garnett GP, Bartley L, Grassly NC, et al., 2002, Antiretroviral therapy to treat and prevent HIV/AIDS in resource-poor settings, NATURE MEDICINE, Vol: 8, Pages: 651-654, ISSN: 1078-8956
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- Citations: 26
Grassly NC corresponding author, 2002, Improved methods and assumptions for estimation of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its impact: Recommendations of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections, AIDS, Vol: 16
Garnett GP, Artzrouni M, Brown T, et al., 2002, Improved methods and assumptions for estimation of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its impact: recommendations for the UNAIDS reference group on estimates, modelling and projections, Aids, Vol: 16, ISSN: 0269-9370
Garnett GP, Grassly NC, Gregson SJ, 2001, AIDS: The makings of a development disaster?, Journal of International Development, Vol: 13, Pages: 391-409
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