Imperial College London
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Dr Natsuko Imai

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Honorary Senior Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

n.imai Website

 
 
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Location

 

G26Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Imai:2023:10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00337-1,
author = {Imai, N and Rawson, T and Knock, E and Sonabend, R and Elmaci, Y and Perez-Guzman, P and Whittles, L and Thekke, Kanapram D and Gaythorpe, K and Hinsley, W and Djaafara, B and Wang, H and Fraser, K and Fitzjohn, R and Hogan, A and Doohan, P and Ghani, A and Ferguson, N and Baguelin, M and Cori, A},
doi = {10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00337-1},
journal = {The Lancet Public Health},
pages = {e174--e183},
title = {Quantifying the impact of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00337-1},
volume = {8},
year = {2023}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background: The UK was the first country to start national COVID-19 vaccination programmes, initially administering doses 3-weeks apart. However, early evidence of high vaccine effectiveness after the first dose and the emergence of the Alpha variant prompted the UK to extend the interval between doses to 12-weeks. In this study, we aim to quantify the impact of delaying the second vaccine dose on the epidemic in England.Methods: We used a previously described model of SARS-CoV-2  transmission, calibrated to English COVID-19 surveillance data including hospital admissions, hospital occupancy, seroprevalence data, and population-level PCR testing data using a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. We modelled and compared the epidemic trajectory assuming that vaccine doses were administered 3-weeks apart against the real reported vaccine roll-out schedule. We estimated and compared the resulting number of daily infections, hospital admissions, and deaths. Scenarios spanning a range of vaccine effectiveness and waning assumptions were investigated.Findings: We estimate that delaying the interval between the first and second COVID-19 vaccine doses from 3- to 12-weeks prevented an average 58,000 COVID-19 hospital admissions and 10,100 deaths between 8th December 2020 and 13th September 2021. Similarly, we estimate that the 3-week strategy would have resulted in more infections and deaths compared to the 12-week strategy. Across all sensitivity analyses the 3-week strategy resulted in a greater number of hospital admissions. Interpretation: England’s delayed second dose vaccination strategy was informed by early real-world vaccine effectiveness data and a careful assessment of the trade-offs in the context of limited vaccine supplies in a growing epidemic. Our study shows that rapidly providing partial (single dose) vaccine-induced protection to a larger proportion of the population was successful in reducing the burden of COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths. Ther
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Rawson,T
AU  - Knock,E
AU  - Sonabend,R
AU  - Elmaci,Y
AU  - Perez-Guzman,P
AU  - Whittles,L
AU  - Thekke,Kanapram D
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Djaafara,B
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Fraser,K
AU  - Fitzjohn,R
AU  - Hogan,A
AU  - Doohan,P
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Cori,A
DO  - 10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00337-1
EP  - 183
PY  - 2023///
SN  - 2468-2667
SP  - 174
TI  - Quantifying the impact of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study
T2  - The Lancet Public Health
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00337-1
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468266722003371?via%3Dihub
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/101401
VL  - 8
ER  -
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