Publications

BibTex format

@article{Berkelmans:2019:eurheartj/ehy839,
author = {Berkelmans, GFN and Gudbjornsdottir, S and Visseren, FLJ and Wild, SH and Franzen, S and Chalmers, J and Davis, BR and Poulter, NR and Spijkerman, AM and Woodward, M and Pressel, SL and Gupta, AK and van, der Schouw YT and Svensson, A-M and van, der Graaf Y and Read, SH and Eliasson, B and Dorresteijn, JA},
doi = {eurheartj/ehy839},
journal = {European Heart Journal},
pages = {2899--2906},
title = {Prediction of individual life-years gained without cardiovascular events from lipid, blood pressure, glucose, and aspirin treatment based on data of more than 500 000 patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehy839},
volume = {40},
year = {2019}
}

Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - AimsAlthough group-level effectiveness of lipid, blood pressure, glucose, and aspirin treatment for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been proven by trials, important differences in absolute effectiveness exist between individuals. We aim to develop and validate a prediction tool for individualizing lifelong CVD prevention in people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) predicting life-years gained without myocardial infarction or stroke.Methods and resultsWe developed and validated the Diabetes Lifetime-perspective prediction (DIAL) model, consisting of two complementary competing risk adjusted Cox proportional hazards functions using data from people with T2DM registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Registry (n = 389 366). Competing outcomes were (i) CVD events (vascular mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke) and (ii) non-vascular mortality. Predictors were age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, haemoglobin A1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate, non- high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albuminuria, T2DM duration, insulin treatment, and history of CVD. External validation was performed using data from the ADVANCE, ACCORD, ASCOT and ALLHAT-LLT-trials, the SMART and EPIC-NL cohorts, and the Scottish diabetes register (total n = 197 785). Predicted and observed CVD-free survival showed good agreement in all validation sets. C-statistics for prediction of CVD were 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.83–0.84) and 0.64–0.65 for internal and external validation, respectively. We provide an interactive calculator at www.U-Prevent.com that combines model predictions with relative treatment effects from trials to predict individual benefit from preventive treatment.ConclusionCardiovascular disease-free life expectancy and effects of lifelong prevention in terms of CVD-free life-years gained can be estimated for people with T2DM using readily available clinical characteristics. Predictions
AU  - Berkelmans,GFN
AU  - Gudbjornsdottir,S
AU  - Visseren,FLJ
AU  - Wild,SH
AU  - Franzen,S
AU  - Chalmers,J
AU  - Davis,BR
AU  - Poulter,NR
AU  - Spijkerman,AM
AU  - Woodward,M
AU  - Pressel,SL
AU  - Gupta,AK
AU  - van,der Schouw YT
AU  - Svensson,A-M
AU  - van,der Graaf Y
AU  - Read,SH
AU  - Eliasson,B
AU  - Dorresteijn,JA
DO  - eurheartj/ehy839
EP  - 2906
PY  - 2019///
SN  - 0195-668X
SP  - 2899
TI  - Prediction of individual life-years gained without cardiovascular events from lipid, blood pressure, glucose, and aspirin treatment based on data of more than 500 000 patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus
T2  - European Heart Journal
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehy839
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000490155600018&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/article/40/34/2899/5281244
VL  - 40
ER  -

Download

Professor Neil Poulter

Contact

Assistant

Location

Summary

Citation

BibTex format

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)