Publications
4 results found
Steinitz F, Johnson N, Staffell I, 2024, From hamburgers to holidays: Modelling the climate change impact of reducing meat consumption according to UK consumer preferences, Current Research in Environmental Sustainability, ISSN: 2666-0490
Staffell I, Pfenninger S, Johnson N, 2024, Author Correction: A global model of hourly space heating and cooling demand at multiple spatial scales, Nature Energy, Vol: 9, Pages: 228-228, ISSN: 2058-7546
Staffell I, Pfenninger S, Johnson N, 2023, A global model of hourly space heating and cooling demand at multiple spatial scales, Nature Energy, Vol: 8, Pages: 1328-1344, ISSN: 2058-7546
Accurate modelling of the weather’s temporal and spatial impacts on building energy demand is critical to decarbonizing energy systems. Here we introduce a customizable model for hourly heating and cooling demand applicable globally at all spatial scales. We validate against demand from ~5,000 buildings and 43 regions across four continents. The model requires limited data inputs and shows better agreement with measured demand than existing models. We use it first to demonstrate that a 1 °C reduction in thermostat settings across all buildings could reduce Europe’s gas consumption by 240 TWh yr−1, approximately one-sixth of historical imports from Russia. Second, we show that service demand for cooling is increasing by up to 5% per year in some regions due to climate change, and 5 billion people experience >100 additional cooling degree days per year when compared with a generation ago. The model and underlying data are freely accessible to promote further research.
Johnson NJ, Gross R, Staffell I, 2021, Stabilisation wedges: measuring progress towards transforming the global energy and land use systems, Environmental Research Letters, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1748-9326
15 years ago, Pacala and Socolow argued that global carbon emissions could be stabilised by mid-century using a portfolio of existing mitigation strategies. We assess historic progress for each of their proposed mitigation strategies and convert this into the unit of 'wedges'. We show that the world is on track to achieve 1.5 ± 0.9 wedges relative to seven required to stabilise emissions, or 14 required to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. Substantial progress has been made in some domains that are not widely recognised (improving vehicle efficiency and declining vehicle use); yet this is tempered by negligible or even negative progress in many others (particularly tropical tree cover loss in Asia and Africa). By representing global decarbonisation efforts using the conceptually simple unit of wedges, this study helps a broader audience to understand progress to date and engage with the need for much greater effort over the coming decades.
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