Publications
433 results found
Donnelly CA, Riley S, Fraser C, et al., 2006, Epidemiological analysis of SARS: a novel infectious disease, Challenges of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Editors: Chan, Wong, Publisher: Elsevier, Pages: 9-30
Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Hooper J, et al., 2005, Adherence to antiretroviral therapy and its impact on clinical outcome in HIV-infected patients, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, Vol: 2, Pages: 349-363, ISSN: 1742-5689
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- Citations: 23
Baggaley RF, Ferguson NM, Garnett GP, 2005, The epidemiological impact of antiretroviral use predicted by mathematical models: a review., Emerg Themes Epidemiol, Vol: 2
This review summarises theoretical studies attempting to assess the population impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) use on mortality and HIV incidence. We describe the key parameters that determine the impact of therapy, and argue that mathematical models of disease transmission are the natural framework within which to explore the interaction between antiviral use and the dynamics of an HIV epidemic. Our review focuses on the potential effects of ART in resource-poor settings. We discuss choice of model type and structure, the potential for risk behaviour change following widespread introduction of ART, the importance of the stage of HIV infection at which treatment is initiated, and the potential for spread of drug resistance. These issues are illustrated with results from models of HIV transmission. We demonstrate that HIV transmission models predicting the impact of ART use should incorporate a realistic progression through stages of HIV infection in order to capture the effect of the timing of treatment initiation on disease spread. The realism of existing models falls short of properly reproducing patterns of diagnosis timing, incorporating heterogeneity in sexual behaviour, and describing the evolution and transmission of drug resistance. The uncertainty surrounding certain effects of ART, such as changes in sexual behaviour and transmission of ART-resistant HIV strains, demands exploration of best and worst case scenarios in modelling, but this must be complemented by surveillance and behavioural surveys to quantify such effects in settings where ART is implemented.
Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Cauchemez S, et al., 2005, Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia., Nature, Vol: 437, Pages: 209-214
Churcher TS, Ferguson NM, Basáñez MG, 2005, Density dependence and overdispersion in the transmission of helminth parasites, PARASITOLOGY, Vol: 131, Pages: 121-132, ISSN: 0031-1820
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- Citations: 55
Ferguson N, Day R, Johnson CM, et al., 2005, Simulation and experiment at high temperatures: Ultrafast folding of a thermophilic protein by nucleation-condensation, JOURNAL OF MOLECULAR BIOLOGY, Vol: 347, Pages: 855-870, ISSN: 0022-2836
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- Citations: 48
Abu-Raddad LJ, Ferguson NM, 2005, Characterizing the symmetric equilibrium of multi-strain host-pathogen systems in the presence of cross immunity, JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 50, Pages: 531-558, ISSN: 0303-6812
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- Citations: 24
Ferguson NM, 2005, Mathematical prediction in infection., Medicine (Abingdon), Vol: 33, Pages: 1-2, ISSN: 1357-3039
It is now increasingly common for infectious disease epidemics to be analysed with mathematical models. Modelling is possible because epidemics involve relatively simple processes occurring within large populations of individuals. Modelling aims to explain and predict trends in disease incidence, prevalence, morbidity or mortality. Models give important insight into the development of epidemics. Following disease establishment, epidemic growth is approximately exponential. The rate of growth in this phase is primarily determined by the basic reproduction number (R0), the number of secondary cases per primary case when the population is susceptible. R0 also determines the ease with which control policies can control epidemics. Once a significant proportion of the population has been infected, not all contacts of an infected individual will be with susceptible people. Infection can now continue only because new births replenish the susceptible population. Eventually, an endemic equilibrium is reached whereby every infected person infects one other individual on average. Heterogeneity in host susceptibility, infectiousness, human contact patterns and the genetic composition of pathogen populations introduces substantial additional complexity into the models required to model real diseases realistically. The contribution concludes with a brief review of the recent application of mathematical models to emerging human and animal epidemics, notably the spread of HIV in Africa, the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic in the UK and its relationship to bovine spongiform encephalitis in cattle, the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in UK livestock, bioterrorism threats such as smallpox, and the SARS epidemics in 2003.
Ben-Edigbe J, Ferguson N, 2005, Extent of capacity loss resulting from pavement distress, PROCEEDINGS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CIVIL ENGINEERS-TRANSPORT, Vol: 158, Pages: 27-32, ISSN: 0965-092X
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- Citations: 27
Leung GM, Hedley AJ, Lam TH, et al., 2005, Transmission Dynamics and Control of the Viral Aetiological Agent of SARS, SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME, Editors: Peiris, Anderson, Osterhaus, Stohr, Yuen, Publisher: BLACKWELL SCIENCE PUBL, Pages: 111-130
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- Citations: 1
Anderson RM, Fraser C, Ghani AC, et al., 2005, Epidemiology, transmission dynamics, and control of SARS: the 2002-2003 epidemic., SARS: a case study in emerging infections., Editors: McLean, May, Pattison, Weiss, Publisher: Oxford University Press, Pages: 61-80
Abu-Raddad LJ, Ferguson NM, 2004, The impact of cross-immunity, mutation and stochastic extinction on pathogen diversity, PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 271, Pages: 2431-2438, ISSN: 0962-8452
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- Citations: 36
Ferguson N, Schartau PJ, Sharpe TD, et al., 2004, One-state downhill <i>versus</i> conventional protein folding, JOURNAL OF MOLECULAR BIOLOGY, Vol: 344, Pages: 295-301, ISSN: 0022-2836
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- Citations: 68
Donnelly CA, Fisher MC, Fraser C, et al., 2004, Epidemiological and genetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol: 4, Pages: 672-683, ISSN: 1473-3099
The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics in 2002–2003 showed how quickly a novel infectious disease can spread both within communities and internationally. We have reviewed the epidemiological and genetic analyses that have been published both during and since these epidemics, and show how quickly data were collected and analyses undertaken. Key factors that determine the speed and scale of transmission of an infectious disease were estimated using statistical and mathematical modelling approaches, and phylogenetic analyses provided insights into the origin and evolution of the SARS-associated coronavirus. The SARS literature continues to grow, and it is hoped that international collaboration in the analysis of epidemiological and contact-network databases will provide further insights into the spread of this newly emergent infectious disease.
Leung GM, Chung P-H, Tsang T, et al., 2004, SARS-CoV antibody prevalence in all Hong Kong patient contacts, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol: 10, Pages: 1653-1656, ISSN: 1080-6040
A total of 1,068 asymptomatic close contacts of patients with severe acute respiratory (SARS) from the 2003 epidemic in Hong Kong were serologically tested, and 2 (0.19%) were positive for SARS coronavirus immunoglobulin G antibody. SARS rarely manifests as a subclinical infection, and at present, wild animal species are the only important natural reservoirs of the virus.
Zaki MM, Ferguson N, Leiting V, et al., 2004, Safety of <i>Mycoplasma gallisepticum</i> vaccine strain 6/85 after backpassage in turkeys, AVIAN DISEASES, Vol: 48, Pages: 642-646, ISSN: 0005-2086
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- Citations: 5
Hagenaars TJ, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, 2004, Spatial heterogeneity and the persistence of infectious diseases, JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 229, Pages: 349-359, ISSN: 0022-5193
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- Citations: 122
Anderson RM, Fraser C, Ghani AC, et al., 2004, Epidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of SARS: the 2002-2003 epidemic, Philos Trans R Soc Lond, B, Biol Sci, Vol: 359, Pages: 1091-1105
Schneeberger A, Mercer CH, Gregson SAJ, et al., 2004, Scale-free networks and sexually transmitted diseases - A description of observed patterns of sexual contacts in Britain and Zimbabwe, SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASES, Vol: 31, Pages: 380-387, ISSN: 0148-5717
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- Citations: 154
Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, et al., 2004, Public health risk from the avian H5N1 influenza epidemic, SCIENCE, Vol: 304, Pages: 968-969, ISSN: 0036-8075
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- Citations: 124
Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, et al., 2004, Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable., Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, Vol: 101, Pages: 6146-6151
van Boven M, Ferguson NM, van Rie A, 2004, Unveiling the burden of pertussis, TRENDS IN MICROBIOLOGY, Vol: 12, Pages: 116-119, ISSN: 0966-842X
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- Citations: 5
G M Leung, A J Hedley, L M Ho, et al., 2004, The epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the 2003 Hong Kong epidemic: an analysis of all 1755 patients, Ann Intern Med, Vol: 141, Pages: 662-673, ISSN: 0003-4819
Ferguson N, Schneier B, 2003, Helix: Fast encryption and authentication, DR DOBBS JOURNAL, Vol: 28, Pages: 28-+, ISSN: 1044-789X
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- Citations: 1
Ferguson NM, Keeling MJ, Edmunds WJ, et al., 2003, Planning for smallpox outbreaks, Nature, Vol: 425, Pages: 681-685, ISSN: 0028-0836
Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.
Hagenaars TJ, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, et al., 2003, Dynamics of a scrapie outbreak in a flock of Romanov sheep - estimation of transmission parameters, EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, Vol: 131, Pages: 1015-1022, ISSN: 0950-2688
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- Citations: 12
Ferguson N, Berriman J, Petrovich M, et al., 2003, Rapid amyloid fiber formation from the fast-folding WW domain FBP28, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 100, Pages: 9814-9819, ISSN: 0027-8424
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- Citations: 66
Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, 2003, Assessment of the risk posed by bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle in Great Britain and the impact of potential changes to current control measures, PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 270, Pages: 1579-1584, ISSN: 0962-8452
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- Citations: 41
Stanley WA, Hofacre CL, Ferguson N, et al., 2003, Evaluating the use of ultraviolet light as a method for improving hatching egg selection, JOURNAL OF APPLIED POULTRY RESEARCH, Vol: 12, Pages: 237-241, ISSN: 1056-6171
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- Citations: 5
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