Imperial College London
Alternate

Professor Neil Ferguson

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Director of the School of Public Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3296neil.ferguson Website

 
 
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Location

 

508School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Candido:2020:10.1101/2020.06.11.20128249,
author = {Candido, DDS and Claro, IM and de, Jesus JG and Souza, WMD and Moreira, FRR and Dellicour, S and Mellan, T and du, Plessis L and Pereira, RHM and Sales, FCDS and Manuli, ER and Theze, J and Almeida, L and de, Menezes MT and Voloch, CM and Fumagalli, MJ and Coletti, TDM and Silva, CAM and Ramundo, MS and Amorim, MR and Hoeltgebaum, H and Mishra, S and Gill, M and Carvalho, LM and Buss, LF and Prete, CA and Ashworth, J and Nakaya, H and Peixoto, PDS and Brady, O and Nicholls, S and Tanuri, A and Rossi, AD and Braga, CKV and Gerber, AL and Guimaraes, AP and Gaburo, N and Alencar, CS and Ferreira, ACDS and Lima, CX and Levi, JE and Granato, C and Ferreira, GM and Francisco, RDS and Granja, F and Garcia, MT and Moretti, ML and Perroud, MW and Castineiras, TMPP and Lazari, CDS and Hill, S and Santos, AADS and Simeoni, CL and Forato, J and Sposito, AC and Schreiber, AZ and Santos, MNN and Sa, CZ and Souza, RP and Resende, Moreira LC and Teixeira, MM and Hubner, J and Leme, PAF and Moreira, RG},
doi = {10.1101/2020.06.11.20128249},
journal = {Science},
pages = {1255--1260},
title = {Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.11.20128249},
volume = {369},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Brazil currently has one of the fastest growing SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in the world. Due to limited available data, assessments of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on virus transmission and epidemic spread remain challenging. We investigate the impact of NPIs in Brazil using epidemiological, mobility and genomic data. Mobility-driven transmission models for Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro cities show that the reproduction number (Rt) reached below 1 following NPIs but slowly increased to values between 1 to 1.3 (1.0 - -1.6). Genome sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset from 21 of the 27 Brazilian states identified >100 international introductions of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil. We estimate that three clades introduced from Europe emerged between 22 and 27 February 2020, and were already well-established before the implementation of NPIs and travel bans. During this first phase of the epidemic establishment of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil, we find that the virus spread mostly locally and within-state borders. Despite sharp decreases in national air travel during this period, we detected a 25% increase in the average distance travelled by air passengers during this time period. This coincided with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from large urban centers to the rest of the country. In conclusion, our results shed light on the role of large and highly connected populated centres in the rapid ignition and establishment of SARS-CoV-2, and provide evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in Brazil.
AU  - Candido,DDS
AU  - Claro,IM
AU  - de,Jesus JG
AU  - Souza,WMD
AU  - Moreira,FRR
AU  - Dellicour,S
AU  - Mellan,T
AU  - du,Plessis L
AU  - Pereira,RHM
AU  - Sales,FCDS
AU  - Manuli,ER
AU  - Theze,J
AU  - Almeida,L
AU  - de,Menezes MT
AU  - Voloch,CM
AU  - Fumagalli,MJ
AU  - Coletti,TDM
AU  - Silva,CAM
AU  - Ramundo,MS
AU  - Amorim,MR
AU  - Hoeltgebaum,H
AU  - Mishra,S
AU  - Gill,M
AU  - Carvalho,LM
AU  - Buss,LF
AU  - Prete,CA
AU  - Ashworth,J
AU  - Nakaya,H
AU  - Peixoto,PDS
AU  - Brady,O
AU  - Nicholls,S
AU  - Tanuri,A
AU  - Rossi,AD
AU  - Braga,CKV
AU  - Gerber,AL
AU  - Guimaraes,AP
AU  - Gaburo,N
AU  - Alencar,CS
AU  - Ferreira,ACDS
AU  - Lima,CX
AU  - Levi,JE
AU  - Granato,C
AU  - Ferreira,GM
AU  - Francisco,RDS
AU  - Granja,F
AU  - Garcia,MT
AU  - Moretti,ML
AU  - Perroud,MW
AU  - Castineiras,TMPP
AU  - Lazari,CDS
AU  - Hill,S
AU  - Santos,AADS
AU  - Simeoni,CL
AU  - Forato,J
AU  - Sposito,AC
AU  - Schreiber,AZ
AU  - Santos,MNN
AU  - Sa,CZ
AU  - Souza,RP
AU  - Resende,Moreira LC
AU  - Teixeira,MM
AU  - Hubner,J
AU  - Leme,PAF
AU  - Moreira,RG
AU  - Nogueira,ML
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - Costa,SF
AU  - Proenca-Modena,JL
AU  - Vasconcelos,AT
AU  - Bhatt,S
AU  - Lemey,P
AU  - Wu,C-H
AU  - Rambaut,A
AU  - Loman,N
AU  - Aguiar,RS
AU  - Pybus,O
AU  - Sabino,EC
AU  - Faria,NR
AU  - CADDE-Genomic-Network
DO  - 10.1101/2020.06.11.20128249
EP  - 1260
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 0036-8075
SP  - 1255
TI  - Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil
T2  - Science
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.11.20128249
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000567525400055&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6508/1255
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/84110
VL  - 369
ER  -
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