Imperial College London
Alternate

Professor Neil Ferguson

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Director of the School of Public Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3296neil.ferguson Website

 
 
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Location

 

508School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Mishra:2021:10.1038/s41598-021-95699-9,
author = {Mishra, S and Scott, JA and Laydon, DJ and Flaxman, S and Gandy, A and Mellan, TA and Unwin, HJT and Vollmer, M and Coupland, H and Ratmann, O and Monod, M and Zhu, HH and Cori, A and Gaythorpe, KAM and Whittles, LK and Whittaker, C and Donnelly, CA and Ferguson, NM and Bhatt, S},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-021-95699-9},
journal = {SCIENTIFIC REPORTS},
pages = {1--9},
title = {Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95699-9},
volume = {11},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - The UK and Sweden have among the worst per-capita COVID-19 mortality in Europe. Sweden stands out for its greater reliance on voluntary, rather than mandatory, control measures. We explore how the timing and effectiveness of control measures in the UK, Sweden and Denmark shaped COVID-19 mortality in each country, using a counterfactual assessment: what would the impact have been, had each country adopted the others’ policies? Using a Bayesian semi-mechanistic model without prior assumptions on the mechanism or effectiveness of interventions, we estimate the time-varying reproduction number for the UK, Sweden and Denmark from daily mortality data. We use two approaches to evaluate counterfactuals which transpose the transmission profile from one country onto another, in each country’s first wave from 13th March (when stringent interventions began) until 1st July 2020. UK mortality would have approximately doubled had Swedish policy been adopted, while Swedish mortality would have more than halved had Sweden adopted UK or Danish strategies. Danish policies were most effective, although differences between the UK and Denmark were significant for one counterfactual approach only. Our analysis shows that small changes in the timing or effectiveness of interventions have disproportionately large effects on total mortality within a rapidly growing epidemic.
AU  - Mishra,S
AU  - Scott,JA
AU  - Laydon,DJ
AU  - Flaxman,S
AU  - Gandy,A
AU  - Mellan,TA
AU  - Unwin,HJT
AU  - Vollmer,M
AU  - Coupland,H
AU  - Ratmann,O
AU  - Monod,M
AU  - Zhu,HH
AU  - Cori,A
AU  - Gaythorpe,KAM
AU  - Whittles,LK
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Donnelly,CA
AU  - Ferguson,NM
AU  - Bhatt,S
DO  - 10.1038/s41598-021-95699-9
EP  - 9
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 2045-2322
SP  - 1
TI  - Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling
T2  - SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95699-9
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000684343800019&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95699-9
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/91611
VL  - 11
ER  -
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