Imperial College London
Alternate

Professor Neil Ferguson

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Director of the School of Public Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3296neil.ferguson Website

 
 
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Location

 

508School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Sonabend:2021:10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02276-5,
author = {Sonabend, R and Whittles, LK and Imai, N and Perez, Guzman PN and Knock, E and Rawson, T and Gaythorpe, KA and Djaafara, A and Hinsley, W and Fitzjohn, R and Lees, JA and Thekke, Kanapram D and Volz, E and Ghani, A and Ferguson, NM and Baguelin, M and Cori, A},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02276-5},
journal = {The Lancet},
pages = {1825--1835},
title = {Non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination, and the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in England: a mathematical modelling study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02276-5},
volume = {398},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background:England's COVID-19 roadmap out of lockdown policy set out the timeline and conditions for the stepwise lifting of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as vaccination roll-out continued, with step one starting on March 8, 2021. In this study, we assess the roadmap, the impact of the delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2, and potential future epidemic trajectories.Methods:This mathematical modelling study was done to assess the UK Government's four-step process to easing lockdown restrictions in England, UK. We extended a previously described model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to incorporate vaccination and multi-strain dynamics to explicitly capture the emergence of the delta variant. We calibrated the model to English surveillance data, including hospital admissions, hospital occupancy, seroprevalence data, and population-level PCR testing data using a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework, then modelled the potential trajectory of the epidemic for a range of different schedules for relaxing NPIs. We estimated the resulting number of daily infections and hospital admissions, and daily and cumulative deaths. Three scenarios spanning a range of optimistic to pessimistic vaccine effectiveness, waning natural immunity, and cross-protection from previous infections were investigated. We also considered three levels of mixing after the lifting of restrictions.Findings:The roadmap policy was successful in offsetting the increased transmission resulting from lifting NPIs starting on March 8, 2021, with increasing population immunity through vaccination. However, because of the emergence of the delta variant, with an estimated transmission advantage of 76% (95% credible interval [95% CrI] 69–83) over alpha, fully lifting NPIs on June 21, 2021, as originally planned might have led to 3900 (95% CrI 1500–5700) peak daily hospital admissions under our central parameter scenario. Delaying until July 19, 2021, reduced peak hospital admissions by three fol
AU  - Sonabend,R
AU  - Whittles,LK
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Perez,Guzman PN
AU  - Knock,E
AU  - Rawson,T
AU  - Gaythorpe,KA
AU  - Djaafara,A
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Fitzjohn,R
AU  - Lees,JA
AU  - Thekke,Kanapram D
AU  - Volz,E
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Ferguson,NM
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Cori,A
DO  - 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02276-5
EP  - 1835
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 0140-6736
SP  - 1825
TI  - Non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination, and the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in England: a mathematical modelling study
T2  - The Lancet
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02276-5
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673621022765?via%3Dihub
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/92384
VL  - 398
ER  -
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