Imperial College London
Alternate

Nick S Jones

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Mathematics

Professor of Mathematical Sciences
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 1146nick.jones

 
 
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Location

 

301aSir Ernst Chain BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{de:2016:10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30167-X,
author = {de, Figueiredo A and Johnston, IG and Smith, DM and Agarwal, S and Larson, HJ and Jones, NS},
doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30167-X},
journal = {Lancet Global Health},
pages = {e726--e735},
title = {Forecasted trends in vaccination coverage and correlations with socioeconomic factors: a global time-series analysis over 30 years.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30167-X},
volume = {4},
year = {2016}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BACKGROUND: Incomplete immunisation coverage causes preventable illness and death in both developing and developed countries. Identification of factors that might modulate coverage could inform effective immunisation programmes and policies. We constructed a performance indicator that could quantitatively approximate measures of the susceptibility of immunisation programmes to coverage losses, with an aim to identify correlations between trends in vaccine coverage and socioeconomic factors. METHODS: We undertook a data-driven time-series analysis to examine trends in coverage of diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTP) vaccination across 190 countries over the past 30 years. We grouped countries into six world regions according to WHO classifications. We used Gaussian process regression to forecast future coverage rates and provide a vaccine performance index: a summary measure of the strength of immunisation coverage in a country. FINDINGS: Overall vaccine coverage increased in all six world regions between 1980 and 2010, with variation in volatility and trends. Our vaccine performance index identified that 53 countries had more than a 50% chance of missing the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) target of 90% worldwide coverage with three doses of DTP (DTP3) by 2015. These countries were mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, but Austria and Ukraine also featured. Factors associated with DTP3 immunisation coverage varied by world region: personal income (Spearman's ρ=0·66, p=0·0011) and government health spending (0·66, p<0·0001) were informative of immunisation coverage in the Eastern Mediterranean between 1980 and 2010, whereas primary school completion was informative of coverage in Africa (0·56, p<0·0001) over the same period. The proportion of births attended by skilled health staff correlated significantly with immunisation coverage across many world regions. INTERPRETATION: Our vaccine performance inde
AU  - de,Figueiredo A
AU  - Johnston,IG
AU  - Smith,DM
AU  - Agarwal,S
AU  - Larson,HJ
AU  - Jones,NS
DO  - 10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30167-X
EP  - 735
PY  - 2016///
SN  - 2214-109X
SP  - 726
TI  - Forecasted trends in vaccination coverage and correlations with socioeconomic factors: a global time-series analysis over 30 years.
T2  - Lancet Global Health
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30167-X
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/34487
VL  - 4
ER  -
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