Imperial College London
Alternate

Professor Nimalan Arinaminpathy (Nim Pathy)

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor in Mathematical Epidemiology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

nim.pathy Website

 
 
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Location

 

Praed StreetSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Fu:2021:10.1038/s41467-020-20731-x,
author = {Fu, H and Lewnard, JA and Frost, I and Laxminarayan, R and Arinaminpathy, N},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-20731-x},
journal = {Nature Communications},
pages = {1--9},
title = {Modelling the global burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis avertable by a post-exposure vaccine},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20731-x},
volume = {12},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - There have been notable advances in the development of vaccines against active tuberculosis (TB) disease for adults and adolescents. Using mathematical models, we seek to estimate the potential impact of a post-exposure TB vaccine, having 50% efficacy in reducing active disease, on global rifampicin-resistant (RR-) TB burden. In 30 countries that together accounted for 90% of global RR-TB incidence in 2018, a future TB vaccine could avert 10% (95% credible interval: 9.7–11%) of RR-TB cases and 7.3% (6.6–8.1%) of deaths over 2020–2035, with India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Russian Federation having the greatest contribution. This impact would increase to 14% (12–16%) and 31% (29–33%) respectively, when combined with improvements in RR-TB diagnosis and treatment relative to a scenario of no vaccine and no such improvements. A future TB vaccine could have important implications for the global control of RR-TB, especially if implemented alongside enhancements in management of drug resistance.
AU  - Fu,H
AU  - Lewnard,JA
AU  - Frost,I
AU  - Laxminarayan,R
AU  - Arinaminpathy,N
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-020-20731-x
EP  - 9
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 2041-1723
SP  - 1
TI  - Modelling the global burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis avertable by a post-exposure vaccine
T2  - Nature Communications
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20731-x
UR  - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20731-x
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/85134
VL  - 12
ER  -
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