Imperial College London
Alternate

Professor Nimalan Arinaminpathy (Nim Pathy)

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor in Mathematical Epidemiology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

nim.pathy Website

 
 
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Location

 

Praed StreetSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Arinaminpathy:2021:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100477,
author = {Arinaminpathy, N and Das, J and McCormick, T and Mukhopadhyay, P and Sircar, N},
doi = {10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100477},
journal = {Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics},
pages = {1--7},
title = {Quantifying heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the lockdown in India},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100477},
volume = {36},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - The novel SARS-CoV-2 virus, as it manifested in India in April 2020, showed marked heterogeneity in its transmission. Here, we used data collected from contact tracing during the lockdown in response to the first wave of COVID-19 in Punjab, a major state in India, to quantify this heterogeneity, and to examine implications for transmission dynamics. We found evidence of heterogeneity acting at multiple levels: in the number of potentially infectious contacts per index case, and in the per-contact risk of infection. Incorporating these findings in simple mathematical models of disease transmission reveals that these heterogeneities act in combination to strongly influence transmission dynamics. Standard approaches, such as representing heterogeneity through secondary case distributions, could be biased by neglecting these underlying interactions between heterogeneities. We discuss implications for policy, and for more efficient contact tracing in resource-constrained settings such as India. Our results highlight how contact tracing, an important public health measure, can also provide important insights into epidemic spread and control.
AU  - Arinaminpathy,N
AU  - Das,J
AU  - McCormick,T
AU  - Mukhopadhyay,P
AU  - Sircar,N
DO  - 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100477
EP  - 7
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 1755-4365
SP  - 1
TI  - Quantifying heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the lockdown in India
T2  - Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100477
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436521000311?via%3Dihub
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/89690
VL  - 36
ER  -
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